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Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University

Situation and OutlookSituation and Outlook

Kim AndersonKim Anderson

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United States: CornUnited States: Corn

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United States: SoybeansUnited States: Soybeans

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Apr 9 Drought MonitorApr 9 Drought Monitor

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Apr 23 Drought MonitorApr 23 Drought Monitor

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April 18 - 30 day PrecipitationApril 18 - 30 day Precipitation

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April 18 90-day PrecipitationApril 18 90-day Precipitation

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April 18 30-day TemperatureApril 18 30-day Temperature

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April 18 90-day TemperatureApril 18 90-day Temperature

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Drought ForecastDrought Forecast

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Apr 4 Drought ForecastApr 4 Drought Forecast

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WheatWheat

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Production ConsumptionEndingStocks

U. S.PriceYear

(Billion Bushels)

U.S. Wheat SituationU.S. Wheat Situation

2006 1.81 2.05 .456 $4.262007 2.05 2.31 .306 $6.482008 2.50 2.28 .657 $6.782009 2.22 2.02 .976 $4.872010 2.21 2.42 .862 $5.702011 2.00 2.23 .743 $7.242012 2.27 2.45 .731 $7.802013 2.15 2.20 .681 $7.00

5-YR Avg. 2.24 2.28 .798 $6.52

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World Wheat SituationWorld Wheat Situation

(Billion Bushels)

Production ConsumptionEndingStocksYear

2006 21.9 22.7 4.72007 22.5 22.7 4.62008 25.1 23.6 6.12009 25.2 23.9 7.42010 24.0 24.1 7.32011 25.6 25.6 7.32012 24.0 24.7 6.52013 24.8 24.5 6.8

5-YR Avg. 24.8 24.4 6.9

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Daily Cash Price June 2003 – April 11 Daily Cash Price June 2003 – April 11

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Daily Cash Price June 2008 – April 11 Daily Cash Price June 2008 – April 11

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Daily Basis Jan 2003 – April 2013 Daily Basis Jan 2003 – April 2013

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Average Mo. June Price; Basis 2008 – 2012 Average Mo. June Price; Basis 2008 – 2012

$8.19; -$0.67

$5.80; -$0.57

$3.69; -$1.11

$7.90; -$0.29

$6.42; -$0.32

Avg. $6.40

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Oklahoma Average Mo. Price June 2008 – May 2013 Oklahoma Average Mo. Price June 2008 – May 2013

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KCBT July Wheat: DailyKCBT July Wheat: Daily

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WheatU.S. and world wheat stocks near average

June 2013 $7.00

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CornCorn

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U.S. Corn SituationU.S. Corn Situation

Production ConsumptionEndingStocks

U. S.PriceYear

(Billion Bushels)

2006 10.5 11.2 1.30 $3.042007 13.0 12.7 1.62 $4.202008 12.1 12.1 1.67 $4.062009 13.1 13.1 1.71 $3.552010 12.4 13.1 1.13 $5.182011 12.4 12.5 .980 $6.222012 10.8 11.3 .602 $7.402013 14.5 13.0 2.20 $4.80

5-YR Avg. 12.16 12.42 1.21 $5.28

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CBT July Corn: DailyCBT July Corn: Daily

$6.19

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CBT Dec Corn: DailyCBT Dec Corn: Daily

$5.24

$0.95

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CBT Corn: Weekly NearestCBT Corn: Weekly Nearest$7.50 vs. $5.25 30%

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CornU. S. and world stocks below average.

2012/13 Ethanol production use 4.5 bb

2012/13 Corn ending stocks 7.57 mb

2012 prices average $6.90

13 prices $5.75

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SoybeanSoybean

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U.S. Soybean SituationU.S. Soybean Situation

(Billion Bushels)

Production ConsumptionEndingStocks

U. S.PriceYear

2005 3.1 2.9 0.50 $5.662006 3.2 3.1 0.57 $6.432007 2.7 3.1 0.21 $10.102008 3.0 3.0 0.14 $9.972009 3.4 3.4 0.15 $9.592010 3.3 3.3 0.22 $11.302011 3.1 3.2 0.17 $12.502012 3.0 3.1 0.13 $14.30

5-YR Avg. 3.16 3.2 0.16 $11.53

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Production ConsumptionEndingStocksYear

World Soybean SituationWorld Soybean Situation

(Billion Bushels)

2005 8.10 7.91 1.952006 8.72 8.29 2.312007 8.13 8.44 1.892008 7.79 8.13 1.562009 9.59 8.75 2.232010 9.69 9.26 2.572011 8.77 9.41 2.022012 9.91 9.54 2.30

5-YR Avg. 9.15 9.02 2.14

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CBT Nov Beans: Weekly NearestCBT Nov Beans: Weekly Nearest

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CBT Nov Soybeans: DailyCBT Nov Soybeans: Daily$14.50 vs. $12 17%

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Soybean Outlook:Soybean Outlook:

U.S. stocks below average.

World stocks average.

Prices average $14.00

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CottonCotton

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U.S. Cotton SituationU.S. Cotton Situation

Production ConsumptionEndingStocks

U. S.PriceYear

(Million Bales)

2005 23.4 23.4 6.1 47.7¢

2006 21.6 18.0 9.5 46.5¢

2007 19.2 18.2 10.0 59.3¢

2008 12.8 16.9 6.3 47.8¢

2009 12.2 15.6 3.0 62.9¢

2010 18.1 18.3 2.6 81.5¢

2011 15.6 15.0 3.4 88.3¢

2012 17.3 16.4 4.2 72.0¢

5-YR Avg. 15.2 16.44 3.9 70.5¢

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World Cotton SituationWorld Cotton Situation

Production ConsumptionEndingStocksYear

(Million Bales)

2005 117.7 116.2 62.22006 122.0 123.4 63.12007 119.9 122.8 60.72008 107.1 110.1 30.82009 102.6 119.0 45.32010 116.3 114.1 48.72011 124.1 103.9 68.92012 119.7 107.4 82.5

5-YR Avg. 114.0 110.9 55.24

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NYCE Dec Cotton: DailyNYCE Dec Cotton: Daily

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Outlook:Outlook:

U.S. cotton stocks below average

World stocks above average

Prices expected to average 70¢

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Providing Inspiration for Agricultural Success

www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson