Oklahoma Drought Response Using Spreadsheet Tools

Roger SahsExtension Assistant, Oklahoma State University

Damona DoyeSarkeys Distinguished Professor and Regents Professor, Oklahoma State University

Minimum temperature: -31°F, Nowata, 2/10/11 Number of days with temperature 100°F or higher:

101 days, Grandfield Warmest summer (June-August): 86.9°F, Statewide

average, U.S. record! 24-hour snowfall: 27 inches, Spavinaw, 11 PM , 2/8/11 to

11 PM 2/9/11 Wind gust: 151 mph, El Reno, 5/24/11 Hail stone diameter: 6.0 inches, 2 miles north of Gotebo,

5/23/11 Lowest annual total precipitation: 6.2 inches, Hooker

2011: A Record Breaking Year

U.S. Drought MonitorSeptember 13, 2011

OSU Ag Econ Drought Response

Numerous meetings around the state…. Extension educator training Lender workshops Producer meetingsTopics covered…. Market outlook Reinvesting in the beef industry Risk management toolsEconomic Impacts $1.7 Billion Direct Losses from Ag Sector

Integrated Farm Financial Statements (IFFS)agecon.okstate.edu/iffs/

Enterprise budget software agecon.okstate.edu/budgets/ beefextension.com, Cow/calf, Calculators or Drought

Resources.◦Early weaning decision aid◦Repurchase decision tool◦Sell cows now or later◦Cow bid price estimate calculator

Decision Support Tools

Keep and Feed vs Sell and Buy Back

Cost per Day to Maintain Cow ($)Days till

repurchase$2.50 $3.00 $3.50

Jan 2012 122 $318 $379 $440May 2012 243 $634 $756 $877Aug. 2012 335 $874 $1,042 $1,209

Price Increase That Can be Paid

Assumes 5% time value of money

Example: Your maintenance cost per day is $3 and you think May 1 is a reasonable repurchase target date. If you think the sell–buyback spread will be less than $756, you should sell and buyback.

What’s Next? More rain, we hope!