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winkling out smart ideas

Prepared for Webanalytics CongresApril 2014No roadtrip without a destinyEnjoy the trip!

Meet Harry…

Harry said “I am going on a diet the rest of my life”

Harry, one year later...

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Hi, my name is Hans Lingeman. Thanks for the invite!

This story is about…

How businesses

rise and blossom

vs…

How businesses

are run7

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The cause!

8

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Ugly reality and the unpredictability of our world» Economic system crash: Internet Bubble of 1999» Financial system crash: Credit Crisis» Channel system crash: Retailers going to “the price battlefield” and

diminishing manufacturer’s margins» Political system crash: Russia invades Ukraine, Russia stops delivering oil

and gas to the west (possible future scenario)» Safety system crash: War, (threat of) terrorist attacks» Health system crash: resistancy against anti-biotics, food delivery (we need to

create the same amount of food in the next 35 years as the past 10,000 years!)

» Climate system crash: earth warming, melting ice, rising see levels

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Purpose versus OpportunismPU

RPO

SEO

PPOR

TUN

ISMThe strategy of

copying to benefit from

market conditions

The strategy of creating to set

the market conditions

companies / brands with a strong inner compass

companies / brands whorespond quickly to

changing market conditions

“We ask consumers what they want, and give it to them!”

“We give consumers what we believe they want deerly!”

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Let’s plot some BrandsPU

RPO

SEO

PPOR

TUN

ISM?

?

OUR WORLD

world of creation

world of rigid testing

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The automated dish wash tablet

» Clue: Consumers forgetting to include the tablet before a dishwasher run

» Insight: It often happened that I opened my dishwasher after a run, only to find out the dishes still dirty, because I forgot to include a tablet!

» Passed Nielsen Bases Test» High CapEx, High Risk» Big Failure in market

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And finally, after three hours of interviewing, the respondent said she just wanted the old model to

be cheaper.

And then I killed her,your honour.

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How odd... According to your recruitment spec, you were supposed to find that

comment really funny.

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Meet the curious case of Edsel

» Introduction marketed as “E-day”, 4th September 1957

» Most researched car in Ford’s history

» Legendary blunder after launching» Killed after 3 years of misery» Accumulated losses estimated to be

$250 Million

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Just improve your entrance experience!

» A new hotel chain opened up their first hotel in Singapore» From exit surveys, the hotel got the poor rating of 6 (from

10)» Quant agency performed analysis and said the poor

overall rating was caused by the poor entrance experience

» Hotel management, trained to service their guests well, intuitively started training their staff to be even more polite when guests entered

» Results: rating dropped to 5» Huh??

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What rigid testing may lead to…

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Revealing the insight

“I’ve just gotten here I just want 5 minutes peace to sort myself out”

Instances of business travellers being irrationally rude to hotel staff

Business travellers want to close the door on their journey and their colleagues the moment

they step through their hotel room door.

Maybe they’ve just spent hours on a plane with tiring colleagues?

They appear to behave like small kids!

It seems like they just want to be alone for a while.

Seems like the staff are at the wrong place at the wrong time…

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Vanish Crystal White

» CLUE: Consumer emptying scoop-after-scoop of detergent in the white wash (N=1!)

» INSIGHT: You add lots of detergent to white wash, because stains on white are horrible, and you cannot waste the (white) wash!

» 54 Million GBP incremental revenues in the launching year & no cannibalisation!

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Our definition of a consumer insight» Simple» Innovation-relevant» Key to solutions» Active

“An unmet consumer need that automatically triggers

new ideas”

SALES

SALES

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Just being lucky?

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€

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Can you count on being lucky twice?

Here’s the story…» Late 2012: 4 guys just finished writing an algorithm to create smart online courses» Launch December 2013 @ 150 GBP / course

• is that the optimum price?» January 2013: Have lunch with a friend, who happen to be marketing director of a daily

deal site. He suggest: “Why not try to sell it via my site?”• (PS: @ 90% discount, and 50% margin)

» February – November: HIGH TIMES: >200K GBP sales / month @ fixed costs» December 2013: Sales drop to ZERO. Ouch! What happened? New competitor offering @

5% cheaper» Current challenge: Money on the bank, burning rate 100%, where to invest: can they count

on being lucky twice?

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HOW MOST BUSINESSES

manage INNOVATION

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The matrix

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Failed attempt to make it look simple

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Developed by Prof. Dr. Smart (so it must be good!)

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Innovation Funnel Icon (with Gate-decisions)

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The innovation funnel looks much nicer with a trumpet at the end!

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We want to be relevant, let’s use a circle

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How long do you think we have?

» Remember these from the 90’s?

(when I was in my twenties)

OUR WORLD

world of creation

world of rigid testing

Remember

this?

Doctors make better decisions by less dataCook County Hospital in Chicago instructed their doctors to gather less information on their patients: they encouraged them to zero in on just a few critical pieces of information about patients suffering from chest pain--like blood pressure and the ECG--while ignoring everything else, like the patient's age and weight and medical history. And what happened? Cook County is now one of the best places in the United States at diagnosing chest pain.

(Malcolm Gladwell, Blink)

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Because our brains have strict limitations

Our conscious mind is very limited and seems able to keep track of a maximum of seven variables or pieces of information at one time.[George Miller, The Magic number seven, Plus or Minus Seven, 1956]

» Please note, the magic number 7 dates from 1956 (!)…

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3 Key Challenges of today

» How can you predict the unknown?

» How can you speed up the MR process (without the risk of jumping to conclusions too fast)?

» How to make sure people use their guts?

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Challenge 1: Reduce risk of creating disruptive ideas

Barrier to overcome: Consumers miss a frame of reference, or “don’t know the unknown”.

Think of testing the benefits of touchscreens in 1990.

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Challenge 2: Speed up the process

Barriers to overcome:» This is the way we do things /

procedures and bonus culture. » Fear for being roughly right.

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Challenge 3: Return to use our gut feeling

Barrier to overcome: You cannot make decisions if they are not backed up by research.

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THANK YOU!

Hans Lingeman, hans@winkle.eu, +316 4141 3653

Winkle® New York

»

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Keizersgracht 477-D1017 DL AmsterdamThe Netherlands

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