11

Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence

Dr Michael S. GoodmanDepartment of War Studiesmichael.s.goodman@kcl.ac.uk

22

‘I ask you to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have

nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of countries large and small, stable and unstable, responsible and

irresponsible, scattered throughout the world. There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real

security, and no chance of effective disarmament’

33

‘…this was a major intelligence success’

44

‘…a remarkable feat to the work of the intelligence agencies’

55

‘such unadvertised intelligence successes, though, pale against the

scale of the proliferation threat’

66

77

88

99

‘the process of reading your opponent’s mind’

1010

‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and

would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’

1111

‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and

would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’

Strategic Intention

1212

‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and

would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’

Strategic Intention

Tactical Intention

1313

‘I share a general belief that President Saddam Hussein would like to have an atomic bomb and

would use it if he could. But could he acquire one?’

Strategic Intention

Tactical IntentionCapability

1414

Threat = Capabilities + Intentions

1515

Capability = Intention?

1616

Nuclear Weapons Programmes:

Money

Scientific Infrastructure

Raw Material

Industrial and Engineering Prowess

1919

Capability

Theoretical Capability

Practical Capability

2020

Capability Questions

What is the state of the scientific infrastructure in country X?What level of training in nuclear-related subjects is on offer?Have scientists studied in other countries?What engineering and scientific materials can be produced indigenously?What will be needed from outside the country?

2121

2222

Intent

Strategic Intention

Tactical Intention

‘the real challenge for intelligence is going to be getting to our political

leadership not just judgments about capabilities, but judgments about real

intentions. And that is tough.’

2424

Proliferation = Capabilities + Intentions

2525

‘One might anticipate a rough correlation between the

possession of certain national capabilities and a propensity toward nuclear armament.’

2626

‘There were a number of individuals and companies which supplied the

components but were unaware of the implications because some of the

components were similar to components used in oil drilling, water treatment and equipment for several

other general uses.’

www.rmp.gov.my

‘any nuclear threat related to terrorism must arise from

unstable nuclear states losing control of nuclear material.’

‘state which possesses nuclear weapons and are not fully in control of their territory

or of their citizens.’

2929

Nuclear Proliferation and Intelligence

Dr Michael S. GoodmanDepartment of War Studiesmichael.s.goodman@kcl.ac.uk