Post on 04-Jan-2016
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Conservation Residential Conservation Resource AssessmentResource Assessment
Overview of Analytical Process Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptionsand Major Assumptions
April 21, 2009April 21, 2009
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
OrganizationOrganization
Sector Summary WorkbookSector Summary Workbook– Linked to Three Procost “Roll-Up” WorkbooksLinked to Three Procost “Roll-Up” Workbooks– Space ConditioningSpace Conditioning– Lighting, Appliances and Water HeatingLighting, Appliances and Water Heating– Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics
““Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual Roll-Up” Workbooks are Linked to “SCinput” tabs in individual measure level workbooksmeasure level workbooks– Changes made in “SCInput” tabs in individual measure workbooks will be Changes made in “SCInput” tabs in individual measure workbooks will be
reflected in “roll-ups” reflected in “roll-ups” Roll-Up Procost Workbooks ContainRoll-Up Procost Workbooks Contain
– Applicable Units Applicable Units – Baseline Market ShareBaseline Market Share– Ramp Rate AssumptionsRamp Rate Assumptions– ““Redundant Measure” parsingRedundant Measure” parsing– Supply Curve by year and “TRC Levelized Cost” binSupply Curve by year and “TRC Levelized Cost” bin
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s Covered – What’s Covered – Space Conditioning Space Conditioning
Three Building TypesThree Building Types– Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)Single Family (up to & including 4-plex)– Multifamily (5-plex & above)Multifamily (5-plex & above)– Manufactured/Mobile HomesManufactured/Mobile Homes
Four VintagesFour Vintages– Pre-1980 Pre-1980 – 1980 – 19921980 – 1992– Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)– Post-2002Post-2002
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s Covered (cont)What’s Covered (cont)
Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing Thermal Shell Improvements, including air sealing with heat recovery ventilationwith heat recovery ventilation
Duct Sealing/Interior HVAC & DuctsDuct Sealing/Interior HVAC & Ducts Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System Forced-Air Electric Furnace Heating System
Conversions to Air-Source Heat PumpsConversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless Zonal Heating System Conversions to Ductless
Heat PumpsHeat Pumps Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System
Efficiency UpgradesEfficiency Upgrades Room Air Conditioner Efficiency UpgradesRoom Air Conditioner Efficiency Upgrades
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Analytical Process – Measure Analytical Process – Measure Cost-EffectivenessCost-Effectiveness
Baseline Characteristics
•CRC & ETO Reports•Current Codes•Market Surveys•Federal Standards
Prototype Simulations
• Twelve Buildings • Five locations• Adjusted for “system” efficiency• Nine Climate Zone Combinations
• 3 Heating• 3 Cooling
PROCOST
•Market Price Forecast•Load Shapes•T&D Losses & Value•Non-Energy Benefits
Unit Level Results
• “Optimized” Measure Order• Cost-Effectiveness Determination
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures
Building Thermal Shells
Insulated to Cost-Effectiveness Limit
Heat Pump Conversions/Upgrades to Cost-Effectiveness Limit w/ Duct Sealing (Existing) and/or Interior HVAC (New)
Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements
Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – “Applicable Units”“Applicable Units”
Measure & Housing StockMeasure & Housing Stock– ResWxResWx = Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2029 = Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2029– New Shell & HVACNew Shell & HVAC = Built between 2010 – 2029 = Built between 2010 – 2029– Duct Systems Sealing & Space Conditioning Equipment Duct Systems Sealing & Space Conditioning Equipment
ConversionsConversions = All SF & MH units built prior to 2010, existing in = All SF & MH units built prior to 2010, existing in 20292029
– Interior HVAC and Space Conditioning Systgem UpgradesInterior HVAC and Space Conditioning Systgem Upgrades = All = All SF and MH stock build from 2010 -2029SF and MH stock build from 2010 -2029
– Heating & Cooling Equipment Conversions Replaced “on burn Heating & Cooling Equipment Conversions Replaced “on burn out”out”
– Heating & Cooling Equipment Upgrades Replaced “on burn out” Heating & Cooling Equipment Upgrades Replaced “on burn out” for pre-2010 units and at time of construction for 2010 – 2029 for pre-2010 units and at time of construction for 2010 – 2029 units.units.
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Thermal Shell Measure Cost & Thermal Shell Measure Cost & SavingsSavings
Weatherization Cost Data SourceWeatherization Cost Data Source– ETO and PSE Program Cost DataETO and PSE Program Cost Data– Window Cost – ETO Single family & Multifamily Cost Window Cost – ETO Single family & Multifamily Cost
Data (Used MF).Data (Used MF). New Construction Cost Data SourceNew Construction Cost Data Source
– 55thth Plan estimates from 4 Plan estimates from 4thth Plan estimates Plan estimates– Except windows and R-10 full slab insulationExcept windows and R-10 full slab insulation
» Used ETO cost data from ResWx for windowsUsed ETO cost data from ResWx for windows» Used data submitted by Mission Valley Power to RTFUsed data submitted by Mission Valley Power to RTF
Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model Savings based on SEEM Simulation Model estimates (results embedded in workbooks)estimates (results embedded in workbooks)
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Heat Pump and PTCS Duct Sealing, Heat Pump and PTCS Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls Cost Commissioning and Controls Cost
EstimatesEstimates Four Sources:Four Sources:
– Existing RTF cost estimate contractor bidsExisting RTF cost estimate contractor bids– STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors
(preliminary returns from 23 contractors(preliminary returns from 23 contractors– Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box
cost” only)cost” only)– Energy Trust of Oregon program dataEnergy Trust of Oregon program data
slide 10
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
ETO
STAC
Online ("Box Only")
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000
$10,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTFETOSTACOnline ("Box Only")
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat PumpThree Ton Heat Pump
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
ETO
STAC
Online ("Box Only")
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
ETO
STAC
Online
slide 14
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
ETO
STAC
Online
slide 15
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System Duct Sealing and Interior System Duct Sealing and Interior
HVAC/DuctsHVAC/Ducts
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
PTCS - Sealing PTCS - Interior
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System CommissioningSystem Commissioning
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Low Mid-Point High
RTF
STAC
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s Covered – Water HeatingWhat’s Covered – Water Heating
High Efficiency TanksHigh Efficiency Tanks Heat Pump and Solar Water HeatersHeat Pump and Solar Water Heaters 2.0 GPM Showerheads2.0 GPM Showerheads GFX Wastewater Heat RecoveryGFX Wastewater Heat Recovery
slide 18
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Analytical Process – Analytical Process – Interactive MeasuresInteractive Measures
Standby Loss Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Efficiency Improvements
Heat Pump and Solar Water Heating Cost-Effectiveness Determined
Waste Water Heat Recovery Cost-Effectiveness Determined
Water Use Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Water Fixture Efficiency Improvements
Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Retail Cost Assumptions –Retail Cost Assumptions – Electric Water Heaters Electric Water Heaters
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
0.90 0.92 0.94 2.20
Water Heater Energy Factor
Reta
il In
stalle
d C
ost
(2006$) Low
AverageHigh
Source: US Department of Energy Technical Support Document
Solar Hot Water System Savings Solar Hot Water System Savings AssumptionsAssumptions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5
An
nu
al S
avin
gs
(kW
h)
System Cost Assumed = $4,500 for 50-60 sq.ft. collector system. Source: Cost ODOE tax credit data, savings from FSEC simulations for RTF
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Appliances – What’s Residential Appliances – What’s CoveredCovered
RefrigeratorsRefrigerators FreezersFreezers Clothes WashersClothes Washers DryersDryers DishwashersDishwashers Microwaves & OvensMicrowaves & Ovens
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Major InputsMajor Inputs
Cost Data SourcesCost Data Sources– Oregon State Residential Energy Tax CreditOregon State Residential Energy Tax Credit
– DOE Appliance Standards (Refrigerators, Ovens and DOE Appliance Standards (Refrigerators, Ovens and Microwaves)Microwaves)
– Online (Dryers and Room AC)Online (Dryers and Room AC)
Baseline EfficiencyBaseline Efficiency– AHAM’s Annual Report on Sales Weighted Average AHAM’s Annual Report on Sales Weighted Average
Product EfficiencyProduct Efficiency
Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test Savings – Engineering models based on DOE test data and proceduresdata and procedures
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
AHAM Baseline – Room ACAHAM Baseline – Room AC
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
Sale
s W
eig
hte
d E
ffici
ency
(EER
)
Energy Star Minimum
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
AHAM Baseline - DishwashersAHAM Baseline - Dishwashers
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.701981
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Energ
y Fa
ctor
(cyl
es/
kWh)
Energy Star Minimum
slide 25
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Room AC Use AssumptionsRoom AC Use Assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 2 3 PNW
Cooling Zone
Annual U
se (
kWh)
BaselineEnergy Star
slide 26
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
AHAM Baseline – Clothes AHAM Baseline – Clothes WashersWashers
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2005 2006 2007
Year
Energ
y Fa
ctor
(cyl
es/
kWh) Energy Star Minimum
slide 27
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Clothes Washer Use Clothes Washer Use AssumptionsAssumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
6th Plan 2010Baseline ( AHAMSales Weighted
Average MEF 2007)
Energy Star - Tier 1(MEF 2.0 - 2.19)
Energy Star - Tier 2(MEF 2.2 - 2.45)
Energy Star - Tier 3(MEF 2.46 or
higher) Top 10% ofEnergy Star Model
Annual U
se (
kWh)
slide 28
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
AHAM Baseline – AHAM Baseline – Refrigerators and FreezersRefrigerators and Freezers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Energ
y U
se (
kWh/y
r)
Refrigerator
Freezer
slide 29
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Dishwasher Use AssumptionsDishwasher Use Assumptions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Existing FederalStandard - EF46
Old Energy Star- EF58
CEE Tier 1 -EF62
Energy Star -EF65 (6th Plan
Baseline)
CEE Tier 2 -EF68
Dishwasher -EF72
Dishwasher -EF83 or higher
(Top 10%)
An
nu
al U
se (
kWh
)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
En
erg
y F
acto
r (c
ycle
s/kW
h)
slide 30
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Refrigerator Use AssumptionsRefrigerator Use Assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
BottomFreezer -No I ce
BottomFreezer -
I ce
Side-by-Side - No
Ice
Side-by-Side - I ce
TopFreezer -No I ce
TopFreezer -
I ce
WeightedAverage
Annual
Use (
kW
h)
Energy Star
Current Practice
Federal Standard
slide 31
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Freezer Use AssumptionsFreezer Use Assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Energy Star Upright-Manual Defrost
Freezer w/ averagecapacity
Energy Star Upright-Auto Defrost Freezerw/ average capacity
Energy Star ChestFreezer w/ average
capacity
Energy Star Freezer- Any Type &
Capacity
Annual
Use (
kW
h)
Federal Standard/Current Practice
Energy Star
slide 32
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Ramp Rate Assumptions – Lost Ramp Rate Assumptions – Lost OpportunityOpportunity
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Maxim
um
Annual
Share
of
Tota
l A
chie
vable
P
ote
nti
al
LostOp_10yr
LostOp_12yr
LostOp_15yr
LostOp_20yr
slide 33
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Ramp Rate Assumptions – Ramp Rate Assumptions – Emerging Technology and Emerging Technology and
Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Maxim
um
Annual
Share
of
Tota
l A
chie
vable
P
ote
nti
al
LostOp_EmergTech
LostOp_ResTV
LostOp_ResSTB
LostOp_ResComputer
LostOp_ResMonitor
LostOp_ComComputer
LostOp_ComMonitor
slide 34
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Ramp Rate Assumptions – Non-Ramp Rate Assumptions – Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
Maxim
um
Annual
Share
of
Tota
l A
chie
vable
P
ote
nti
al
NonLostOp_10yr
NonLostOp_15yr
NonLostOp_20yr
NonLostOp_5yr
slide 35
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Lighting, Appliance Residential Lighting, Appliance and Water Heating Supply Curveand Water Heating Supply Curve
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
< 0
<20
<40
<60
<80
<10
0
<12
0
<14
0
<16
0
<18
0
<20
0
Ach
ieva
ble
Pote
nti
al b
y 2030
Solar PV
Solar DHW
Microwaves & Ovens
Dishwasher
Freezer
Refrigerator
Clothes Dryer
Clothes Washer
Lighting
Showerheads
GFX
HPWH
Efficient DHW Tanks
slide 36
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Summary of 6Summary of 6thth Plan Residential Space Plan Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Conditioning Conservation Resource
Potential by Major MeasurePotential by Major Measure
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
< 0
<1
0
<2
0
<3
0
<4
0
<5
0
<6
0
<7
0
<8
0
<9
0
<1
00
<1
10
<1
20
<1
30
<1
40
<1
50
<1
60
<1
70
<1
80
<1
90
<2
00
>2
00
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s by 2
03
0
HVAC Supplement (DHP)
HVAC HP Upgrade
HVAC HP Conversion
Shell Upgrade - New MH
Shell Upgrade - New MF
Shell Upgrade - New SF
ResWX MH
ResWX MF
ResWX SF