Post on 10-Mar-2018
1 © Nokia 2015
Nokia next generation PON
Ana Pesovic, Fixed Networks Marketing Nokia October 2016
Speed & … convergence define the access network of the future
Eric Festraets - Director Business & Network Strategy Fixed Networks
2 © Nokia 2015
Speed & convergence define the access network of the future
View on
technologies
View on FTTx
deployments View on
apps & services
Fibre as the cornerstone of the network
Better quality of experience…
Fixed complements
wireless…
3 © Nokia 2015
Speed & convergence define the access network of the future
View on
technologies
View on FTTx
deployments View on
apps & services
Fibre as the cornerstone of the network
Better quality of experience…
Fixed complements
wireless…
4 © Nokia 2015
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Robert Storm Petersen Danish cartoonist, writer, animator, illustrator, painter and humorist
The enigma of ever changing consumer behaviour…
5 © Nokia 2015
Backhaul Business (Retail & Wholesale)
Residential (Retail & Wholesale)
Main service trends for today and tomorrow
GIGABIT Bandwidth vs. speed
MULTI PLAY One stop shop – Smart
Home
INTERNET OF THINGS
Ecosystem
FTT OFFICE Passive Optical LAN
CLOUD IT Integration
INTERNET OF THINGS
New business models
MOBILE X-HAUL Front/Mid/Backhaul
WIFI OFFLOAD Seamless handover
SMALL CELLS Coverage & Capacity
6 © Nokia 2015
Vide
o Ba
ndw
idth
(Mbp
s)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4K 3D 2160p 4K TV 2160p 3DTV 1080p HDTV 1080p
3DTV 720p HDTV 720p SDTV 15% CAGR
Sustained bandwidth BW
Time
Downstream average IPTV, Internet, voice
Downstream peak OTT Video download Speed test
Upstream average Gaming, Video communication
Upstream peak Speed test Video upload File sharing Cloud storage
Peak bandwidth
High bitrates are required to provide premium customer experience and differentiate from competition
Gigabit : how much do you really need?
7 © Nokia 2015
Human impatience is the killer app for a gig
-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
HD video (4x)
Web & Cloud apps
Home security
4K Video (4x)
Online backup / storage
8K video (4x)
Virtual Reality (consumer)
Immersive VR
Instant Gratification
Cloud interactivity
Upstream (Mbps)
Peak bandwidth is key for the user experience (human impatience is the killer app)
Sustained bandwidth (all users, all the time) is basic enabler
Downstream (Mbps)
8 © Nokia 2015
Multi play for the consumer – From bundling to converged offerings
TELEPHONE • Voice services
DUAL PLAY • Voice services • Internet services
TRIPLE PLAY • Voice services • Internet services • Video services
QUAD PLAY • Voice services • Internet services • Video services • Mobile services
QUINT PLAY • Voice services • Internet services • Video services • Mobile services • Smart Home
1
2
3 4 5
Downgrade churn by target ing convergent households
9 © Nokia 2015
Multi play for the consumer - The smart home challenge & opportunity
Integrated ONT/RGW/IOT hub or Ethernet CPE/Gateway/IOT hub
Single app in the mobile Multiple apps – one per hub
Multiple hubs – one per vendor
Too many vendors/protocols/hubs/apps Simplified, integrated & handy Smart Home solution
10 © Nokia 2015
Digital Health
Health
Efficiency Comfort
Security
Home Security
Home Automat
ion
Smart Energy
HOME SECURITY 36B€ worldwide market (@2017, Goldman Sachs) Proven willingness-to-pay
by subscribers
ENERGY MANAGEMENT IoT can make smart homes
40% more energy efficient In developed countries,
30% of energy consumption is in homes - significant overall savings!
REMOTE HEALTH Remote patient / elder
monitoring/assisted living Potential savings, just in North-
America, $300B per year Opportunity (US alone) $30B
Multi play for the consumer - Smart home service area’s
11 © Nokia 2015
Bringing a gig to every home is just the start
PON, xDSL, DOCSIS, 3G/4G/5G, GE
Wi-Fi
IPTV, VoD, Internet TV, Gaming
Home Security, Digital Health, Smart Energy, Automation…
Communication
Home networking Home networking
Entertainment
Convenience
Smart home
Connected home
IOT
vSTB
RGW ONT
vRGW vSTB vIoT
12 © Nokia 2015
ENHANCE CUSTOMER
EXPERIENCE
BUILD THE MODERN
WORKPLACE
ADOPT CLOUD
SERVICES
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
OF ENTERPRISE
MANAGE SECURITY &
PRIVACY TRANSFORM IT
CAPABILITY
EXPLOIT BUSINESS
INFO
CONNECT PHYSICAL
WORLD
MODERNIZE LEGACY
SYSTEMS
Business & IT change significantly Need to find better ways to communicate & collaborate
Connect people, offices & applications smoothly
Can Slack replace email?
By 2020, 62% of CIOs say running 100% of IT
in the cloud
75% of M2M projects lead to new business models Data trust should be
guaranteed in each Data Centre
Customer Loyalty Programs rule
13 © Nokia 2015
• Horizontal and Vertical cabling using fibre instead of copper CATx cabling
• GE connectivity to ethernet devices • Active Core switches replaced with single
centralised node • Aggregation switches replaced with
(passive) splitters and CPE devices to terminate fibre
Fibre to the Office : Passive Optical LAN
v’s Traditional copper LAN
Premium service experience • High capacity, market proven
solution • All services converged on one LAN
- voice, video, data, WiFi, surveillance, signage, etc
Lower cost to operate • Simple network, easy to operate • Low power consumption • Low floor space
Long term solution • Fiber life span: 50+ years • Low cost evolution:
- same cables - same access node
14 © Nokia 2015
Fibre to the Office : 50% TCO savings with Passive Optical LAN E
quip
men
t C
ablin
g
Floo
r spa
ce
Pow
er
Office building with 5 floors, 124 desks/floor
-50% TCO
30 switches
1 fiber OLT + ONT access points
25m2 <1m2 Bulky CATx Cable bundles
small-diameter fiber bundle
2.5KW 1.5KW
Traditional LAN Passive Optical LAN
15 © Nokia 2015
Internet of Things : opportunity to improve people’s lives
Fatalities each year worldwide by not following doctor’s prescriptions3
Possible yearly economic impact of IoT applications in cities in 20256
Water lost each year in the US because of aging and leaky pipes, broken mains and faulty meters2
Estimated energy waste in US buildings due to inefficient and outdated HVAC systems5
2.1T gallons 1 mio
50% $1.6 trio
Fatalities in car accidents are often due to human error and slow reaction1
Mobile glucose monitoring tools can cut diabetes management costs by4
90%
50% 1 International Organisation for Road Accident Prevention; 2 NPR; 3 Huffington Post; 4 fiercehealthcare; 5 American Physical Society ; 6 McKinsey
16 © Nokia 2015
Internet of Things : validate the solution… technically and marketwise
Innovation ecosystem Agile prototyping Concept showcase Market trials
refine
Automotive & transportation
Hospitality
Health & wellness
Media & entertainment
Service providers Tech industry
Consumer electronics
Education
Public sector
Retail & e-commerce
Ideate
Prototype
Test
Business models
Prototypes Execution partners
Joined efforts of global leaders & innovators
17 © Nokia 2015
Internet of Things : ecosystem to build the right partnerships
265 members 375 members/1500 products 450 members >550 members/>30,000 products
ng connect program is Nok ia in i t iat ive next to be ing par t o f Z-Wave / Z igBee / WiFi a l l iance
18 © Nokia 2015
Operators massively backhaul their macro cell traffic over fibre
Bus stops Lamp posts Advertising panels…
92% of PT cell sites have fibre for
mobile backhaul
Adding small cells (+ wifi) Equip urban locations with fibre
Wireless Backhaul : market clearly moves to fibre
19 © Nokia 2015
Mobile Transport Fixed networks for backhaul/ midhaul, especially for smart cells
Hybrid access Boost peak speeds with hybrid fixed/LTE CPE; instant activation; resilience & troubleshooting
Fixed Wireless Fixed wireless LTE as primary broadband connectivity in hard to serve areas; 5GTTH in ultra-dense urban areas, and for fast initial coverage
Wireless complements fixed
20 © Nokia 2015
Backhaul Business Residential
All “customer” segments have their needs
Enlarge revenue opportunities by combining B2C with B2B
21 © Nokia 2015
Speed & convergence define the access network of the future
View on
technologies
View on FTTx
deployments View on
apps & services
Fibre as the cornerstone of the network
Better quality of experience…
Fixed complements
wireless…
22 © Nokia 2015
Cloud Minimize TCO with an optimal mix of virtual and physical functions
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Cloud &
CO Edge Cloud
Our vision: A seamless fixed network connecting everyone and enabling every thing
vRGW
vOLT
vSTB
Digital Home Bring gigabit into every home, and enable the Internet of Things
Last mile Gigabit speeds over fiber, copper, coax – innovation pushing the boundaries of physics
Converged Access Range of ultra-broadband options to connect every home, enterprise, and antenna
NG PON, 10G P2P XLG-PON
Vectoring, Vplus, G.fast, XG-FAST
XG-CABLE FTTA
FTTN
FTTx
LTE, FastMile FTTH
FTTDesk
23 © Nokia 2015
Is all traffic going mobile? The facts and predictions
Mobile share
Wi-Fi will support >40% of data traffic
Traffic by network type
CAGR of 24%
Wi-Fi data consumption/user : from 30M (‘13) to 300 M (‘16)
(video)
Source : OVUM
UK, France & Germany
leading countries
Source : Analysis Mason
For 2020, fixed will show stronger growth than mobile in most developed markets
Smartphone boom nearly over… Heavy demand for video data :
Despite 4G, economics drive to fixed Connected TV
24 © Nokia 2015
3G :100s of nodes 4G :1000s of nodes 5G :100,000s of nodes
The world is going wireless, but wireless is going fixed
25 © Nokia 2015
0 5000 10000 15000
Wireless today (LTE)
Wireless tomorrow (5G)
DSL today
DSL tomorrow
Cable today
Cable tomorrow
Fiber today
Fiber tomorrow
Sustained / Peak speeds (Mbps)
XLG-PON and beyond
XG-CABLE, DOCSIS 3.1 Full Duplex
G.fast, XG-FAST
NG-PON (XGS / TWDM)
DOCSIS 3.0
Vplus, G.fast
5G
LTE
Access technology is converging to gigabit speeds
26 © Nokia 2015
FTTHome
“X marks the spot”
FTTBuilding FTT DistributionPoint
FTTCurb FTTNode
X FTTX GPON/EPON, P2P Vectoring, G.fast, Vplus
XGS/TWDM-PON XG-FAST XG-CABLE Next-gen fiber, dsl & coax
“X as the Roman 10”
Copper
Fibre
27 © Nokia 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Agg
rega
te b
itra
te [
Mbp
s]
Distance [m] Note: .5mm cable
Copper technologies : finding the right “DSL” is key
>1000m
550m
300m
VDSL2 Vectoring (17a)
Vplus
G.fast
Shorter distanceIncreased bitrates
Increased cost
G.FAST NOTCHED FOR VDSL2 22 to 106MHz
VDSL2 VECTORING VDSL2 17a
G.FAST Up to 106MHz
VDSL2 35b VECTORING Vplus
28 © Nokia 2015
Fibre technologies : PON evolution in a nutshell
Speed (DS & US)
1G 1.25G
2.5G
10G
EPON GPON 10/1 EPON
XG- PON1
XGS-PON & 10/10 EPON
Universal-NGPON (TWDM PON)
Fixed Optics Tunable Optics
Multiple Wavelengths
(4 or 8)
29 © Nokia 2015
It is reality : XGS/TWDM demos and trials
39 Trials (21 completed)
56 Demo (all completed)
7 customers!
Trial completed
Demo completed Trial planned
Customer win
Demos:
Deployments:
30 © Nokia 2015
Small cell backhaul
Residential FTTH
Business services
FTTB and Remote node backhaul TWDM tunable (10/10 or 10/2.5)
TWDM tunable (10/10 or 10/2.5)
TWDM tunable (10/10 or 10/2.5)
TWDM tunable (10/10 or 10/2.5)
XGS (10/10 or dual-rate 10/10+10/2.5) GPON
XGS dual-rate
A single network for all your services and faster network monetization
Backhaul increasing cell sites volumes and traffic, over existing residential network
Increase revenue potential with high revenue generating business services
Backhaul large number of micro-nodes to boost bandwidth on copper loops
Add more wavelengths to cover more residential users or boost their bandwidth
31 © Nokia 2015
Speed & convergence define the access network of the future
View on
technologies
View on FTTx
deployments View on
apps & services
Fibre as the cornerstone of the network
Better quality of experience…
Fixed complements
wireless…
32 © Nokia 2015
Today’s view on the FTTH/B Market in Europe
≈ 3M users
≈ 3M users
Early 2016 in EU28 : 60M FTTH/B homes passed
16M FTTH/B users (26% adoption) 75% have GPON as
FTTH/B/dp technology
≈ 2M users
≈ 1M users
≈ 1M users
≈ 2M users
Incumbent deploying GPON
Incumbent deploying P2P
Today in Finland : 1.7M fixed broadband users
94K users have FTTH Lowest in Nordics/Baltics
How to increase?
Stimulate Demand
Public Funding
Infra Sharing
Reuse copper for last drop?
33 © Nokia 2015
Note: 30% take rate 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Fiber drop Dark Fiber
Trenching ducts Engineering
Network HW Home HW
Fiber drop Dark Fiber
Trenching/ducts
Engineering
Network HW Home HW
Fiber drop
Dark Fiber
Trenching/ducts
OSP engineering
Network HW Home HW
FTTH CAPEX (€/subs)
Pay back period
~4 years ~8 years > 20 years
Dense Urban Area Rural Area Suburban Area
With fibre deployment, the business case rules
Investors take lesser and lesser risk
34 © Nokia 2015
Compliment FTTH with FTTx
Dense Urban (2500 HH per Sq-Km)
FTTx relative CAPEX per sub (ADSL baseline) INVESTMENT • From FTTN (4x) to FTTH (15x) to 5G
(22x) • Civil works and cable drives cost TIME TO MARKET • Deploying FTTH is time consuming • Re-using existing copper and wireless
sites can speed up deployment
BANDWIDTH • FTTH: 1Gbps (GPON),10 Gbps
(uTWDM) • FTTx: 100M (VDSL2), 100s M G.fast • Fixed Wireless: 1Gbps (5G) OTHER FACTORS • (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts • (+) difficulty to enter the home • Availability of wireless spectrum
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Civil Works and Cables
Network Electronics & Optics
Cabinets/POPs/Splitters
Home Equipment
Home connect & Install
Spectrum
35 © Nokia 2015
G.fast for solving issue of last drop Five deployment models, five use-case optimized Vplus/G.fast platforms
FTTtelcoroom
• 1RU 19” rack- and wall-mountable
• Active cooling with fans • Front access for all
interfaces • AC powered
FTTbuilding
• Optimized for indoor, basement deployment without telco room
• Passive cooling • Anti-tempering • AC & remote powered,
future evolution to reverse
FTTdoor&floor
• FTTH enabler, avoid entering the appartment
• GPON to G.fast conversion
• Reverse powered
FTTcurb
• Optimized for low-end cabinet deployment
• AC or DC powered
FTTpole&hole
• Environmentally hardened for extreme outdoor conditions
• AC, DC or remote powered, future evolution to reverse
Copper Indoor Copper Outdoor
36 © Nokia 2015
56 VDSL2 VECTORING CUSTOMERS
9 13
Vplus CUSTOMERS Vplus Trials
It is reality : powering the largest & most advanced FTTx deployments
25M+ VECTORING LINES SHIPPED
AT&T
9 42
G.fast CUSTOMERS G.fast Trials
37 © Nokia 2015
The converged access platform : bringing all puzzle pieces together Mix of FTTH/X connects more people, sooner & at lower cost
GPON
TWDM- PON
10G EPON DPoE
P2P
FTTN
VDSL2 Vectoring
Vplus
FTTFrontDoor
FTTdp
FTTB
G.fast
FASTER TTM LOWER COST
HIGHER SPEED
POL