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Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:Plane Crashes:The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the The Fragile Balloon in the
Nigeria AirspaceNigeria AirspaceNigeria AirspaceNigeria Airspace
The ultimate reason why people fly for pleasure,
business and work is the amount of time it saves
which can be diverted into other useful ventures.
It is fast with least probability of accident, but
whenever it occurs, it is the deadliest of all means of
transportation.
From the 1st instance of plane crash that happened in
1969 to the most recent, Nigeria is yet to find the root
causes of plane crashes – at least so it seems.
This studies takes a look at Plane crashes and its:
� Relationship with days of the week
� Airplane with most Occurrence
� Location of Occurrence
� Month of Occurrence
� Rates of Occurrence
Presentation of DataPresentation of DataPresentation of DataPresentation of Data
No. Date Day Month Year Week Day Airline Victim Location
1 20-Nov-69 20 Nov 1969 Thursday Nigeria Airways 87 Lagos
2 22-Jan-73 22 Jan 1973 Monday Royal Jordanian Airlines 176 Kano
3 1-Mar-78 1 Mar 1978 Thursday Nigeria Airways 16 Kano
4 28-Nov-83 28 Nov 1983 Monday Nigeria Airways 53 Enugu
5 26-Sep-92 26 Sept 1992 Saturday Nigerian Air Force 163 Lagos
6 24-Jun-95 24 June 1995 Saturday Harka Air Services Tupolev 16 Lagos
7 13-Nov-95 13 Nov 1995 Monday Nigeria Airways 9 kaduna
8 7-Nov-96 7 Nov 1996 Thursday ADC 151 Lagos
9 31-Jan-97 31 Jan 1997 Friday Skypower Express 5 Yola
10 5-Jan-00 5 Jan 2000 Friday Skypower Express 17 Abuja
11 4-May-02 4 May 2002 Tuesday EAS Airline 148 Kano
12 22-Oct-05 22 Oct 2005 Saturday Bellview 117 Lagos
13 10-Dec-05 10 Dec 2005 Saturday Sosoliso 107 PH
14 17-Sep-06 17 Sept 2006 Sunday Dornier 15 Benue
15 29-Oct-06 29 Oct 2006 Sunday ADC 98 Abuja
16 3-Jun-12 3 June 2012 Sunday Dana 153 Lagos
The first occurrence of plane crash was in 1969
Simple DeductionSimple DeductionSimple DeductionSimple Deduction
16 plane crashes in 43 years
1 plane crash in 2.6875 years
Relationship with days of the week
Week day Total
Sunday 3
Monday 3
Tuesday 1
Thursday 3
Friday 2
Saturday 4
Grand Total 16
All together, Weekends (Friday,
Saturday & Sunday) contributes 56%
of all crashes.
It is also worth noting that
Midweek – Tuesday & Wednesday –
records only 1 occurrence.
A qualitative analysis of air traffic focusing on
Midweek and Weekend would reveal more details
on the speculations that the weekends sets the
mood for likely accident
Airplane with most Occurrence
Airline TotalADC 2
Bellview 1
Dana 1
Dornier 1
EAS Airline 1
Harka Air Services Tupolev 1
Nigeria Airways 4
Nigerian Air Force 1
Royal Jordanian Airlines 1
Skypower Express 2
Sosoliso 1
Nigeria Airways
4 of 16
25%
Location of Occurrence
Location Total
Abuja 2
Benue 1
Enugu 1
Kaduna 1
Kano 3
Lagos 6
PH 1
Yola 1
Lagos (6) & Kano (3) with
most occurrence
Lagos – 37.5%
Kano – 18.75%
Abuja – 12.5%
AIRPORT 2009 2008
MMA 3,320,103 2,794,920
ABJ 2,800,464 2,328,290
PH 1,034,506 855,249
OSUBI 417,041 345,059
ENUGU 366,592 276,035
CALABAR 316,061 283,451
BENIN 308,741 233,382
OWERRI 276,926 200,397
KANO 188,722 179,428
KADUNA 146,028 126,729
PASSENGER TRAFFFIC
Month of Occurrence
Month Total
Jan 3
June 2
Mar 1
May 1
Oct 2
Nov 4
Dec 1
Sept 2
1st Quarter (JFM) – 4, 2nd Quarter (JFM) – 3
3rd Quarter (JFM) – 2, 4th Quarter (JFM) – 7Plane crash is more likely to happen in the
1st & last Quarters of the year.
AIRPORT Jan Feb Mar Total
TOTAL 907,734 833,383 881,514 2,622,631
AIRPORT April May June Total
TOTAL 1,030,886 970,442 982,455 2,983,783
AIRPORT July Aug Sept Total
TOTAL 1,059,254 1,112,405 1,061,347 3,233,006
AIRPORT Oct Nov Dec Total
TOTAL 1,220,964 1,178,374 1,287,706 3,687,044
PASSENGER TRAFFFIC
Rates of Occurrence
No. Year Victim
1 1969 87
2 1973 176
3 1978 16
4 1983 53
5 1992 163
6 1995 16
7 1995 9
8 1996 151
9 1997 5
10 2000 17
11 2002 148
12 2005 117
13 2005 107
14 2006 15
15 2006 98
16 2012 153
43yrs 1331
Number of Occurrence – 16 times
16 air crashes in 43years
1 air crash in 2.6875years (average)
16 air crashes claim 1331 lives
1 air crash claim 83.1875 lives (average)
1331 lives in 43years
30.95 lives in 1year (average)
Ministerial Press Briefing – 365 Days of Aviation Sector Transformation
By: Princess Stella Adaeze Oduah, OON (Hon. Minister of Aviation)
Monday, 21st May, 2012
This address was before the Dana plane
crash in June, no mention was made of
“Ageing plane”
Recent findings show most air plane in
Nigeria are old and already at their end
of life. However, beyond the age is the
low maintenance culture.
If the right thing is done – proper
monitoring and certification – we
sure can have safe trip!
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