Preparing For The Rising Tide

Project Team: Ellen Douglas, Paul Kirshen, Vivien Li, Chris Watson, Julie Wormser

Preparing ForThe Rising Tide

• Maps Boston’s vulnerability to coastal flooding

• Encourages public and private property owners to know and decrease their risks

• Provides case studies with vulnerability assessments and preparedness plans.

Superstorm Sandy

Rt.12Outer Banks

Photo: Reuters

Casino Pier, Seaside Heights

Lower Manhattan

Breezy Point

Boston’s Waterfront,

October 29, 2012

Why Coastal Flooding Happens

• “Wicked high tides” during full & new moons and/or

• Storm surges and/or• Sea level rise

Boston

New York

Boston

New York

100 500 10000

5

10

15

100-, 500- and 1,000-year Surges

New York City + Boston Harbor

New York CityBoston Harbor

Probability of Storm Surge (years)

Sto

rm S

urg

e (

feet)

• Used range of “likely” to “possible” estimated sea level rise for planning

• 2050: 1-2 ft. increase• 2100: 3-6 ft. increase• Estimates keep going up,

not down.

Projected Sea Level Rise

Source: IPCC September 2013

Today’s High

Tide + 2.5 ft.

Could flood nearly 7% of Boston

Current100-Year

Flood

Annual Flood

by 2050

Daily HighTide by 2100

Today’s High Tide + 5.0

ft.

What Floods at High Tide+5?

Could Flood Over

30%of Boston

100-Year Flood

around 2050

Annual Flood by

2100

Today’s High Tide + 7.5

ft.

What Floods at High Tide + 7.5?

Boston Since Sandy

Municipal Actions:Climate Ready

Boston• Completed municipal

vulnerability assessment;• Preparing project review

guidelines for new developments;

• Developing wetlands ordinance;• Distributed homeowner flood

protection information;• 2014 updated Climate Action

Plan will focus on preparedness.

Private Sector Actions

• Need to develop vulnerability assessments and time-phased preparedness plans.

• Need to incorporate these plans into regular maintenance schedules.

• Need to work with public agencies and utilities to protect infrastructure.

What is vulnerable now?

When will there be flooding?

“Living With Water”

• Favor “resilience” over “resistance” where possible.

• Elevate vulnerable resources, pair with floodable areas.

• Favor flood control solutions that enhance livability.

Mechanical, electrical and emergency services on roof out of harm’s way

Operable windows keyed open in event of systems failure

Critical patient programs above ground floor

Key floors above 2085 High Estimate 100 Year Flood

Spaulding Rehab Hospital

Living With Water: Seoul, South Korea

Cheong Gye Cheon Channel

Living With Water: Seoul, South Korea

Han River

More Ideas

Summary of Findings

• Today’s 100-year flood could be 2050’s annual flood and 2100’s high tide.

• Property owners need to develop time-phased preparedness plans

• Policy makers need to help property owners overcome barriers, help when private action is insufficient.

Thank Youwww.tbha.org

jwormser@tbha.org

617-482-1722 x102