Published on The Institute for Government (https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk)Home > Never mind the ballots: referendums in the UK

Never mind the ballots: referendums in the UK [1]

The EU referendum will be the third UK-wide referendum in British political history.

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As our colleague Akash Paun notes [3], referendums have tended to be used ‘to settle questions of anindisputably constitutional character’. Thursday’s vote is the second UK-wide referendum on Europe – in1975, the question put to voters was ‘Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community(Common Market)?’ [4] The only other UK-wide referendum was on whether to adopt the Alternative Votesystem for parliamentary elections.

There have been:

three referendums each in Scotland (two on devolution – although the 1997 one included twoquestions – and one on independence) and Wales (all on devolution)two in Northern Ireland – whether to remain part of the UK or join with the Republic of Ireland in 1973,and on the Good Friday Agreement [5] in 1998two referendums on questions of English devolution at a regional level – on a London Mayor andAssembly in 1998 and a devolved assembly for the North East of England in 2004. (We have more onlocal referendums below.)

Referendums have come in clusters: the first in the 1970s (under Conservative and Labour governments),then in the late 1990s under New Labour, and then since 2010. Thursday’s referendum is the second to beheld by a Conservative government.

Turnouts at referendums tend to be lower than in general elections.

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Only two referendums have had higher turnouts than recent general elections: on the Good Fridayagreement in Northern Ireland in 1998 (81.1%) and on Scottish independence in 2014 (84.6%).

Turnout in Northern Ireland in 1973 (58.7%) was depressed by a boycott – less than 1% of the RomanCatholic population were said to have voted [7].

The change option has beaten the status quo in seven of the thirteen referendum questions todate.

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Interestingly, despite the ‘status quo bias’ observed in referendums internationally, in the UK the ‘change’option has been preferred seven times and the ‘status quo’ option six times. In 1979, 51.6% voted infavour of Scottish devolution – but this did not meet a required turnout threshold, so no Scottish Assemblywas introduced.

Although referendums at national and regional level attract most political and mediaattention, there have been 61 referendums at local level since 2001.

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Local referendums can be held under two different pieces of legislation:

The Local Government Act 2000 allows councils and citizens to trigger votes on councils’ executivearrangements (usually to introduce a mayor).The Localism Act 2011 fulfilled a Conservative manifesto pledge to allow mayoral referendums inEngland’s 12 largest cities. It also means that councils wanting to increase their council tax by acertain amount have to hold a referendum.

To date:

16 areas have voted to introduce a mayor, and 36 have voted against (the status quo bias appearsalive and well). Guildford will vote on a mayor in October 2016.Three areas have voted to retain a mayor, and three to abolish.Two areas (Fylde in May 2014, West Dorset in May 2016) voted in favour of introducing a committeesystem.Only Bedfordshire has held a referendum on a council tax rise (which was rejected).

To date, only the Bedfordshire council tax referendum and the mayoral referendums in Berwick-upon-Tweed in 2001 and the Isle of Wight in 2005, have had turnouts of more than 50%.

Many will agree that Thursday’s referendum will be one of the most important of a generation. We’ll seehow that measures up against the referendums of the past.

Further information

Data from House of Commons Library briefings on individual referendums [10] and referendums on directly-elected mayors [11] and council tax [12], and research based on a briefing on referendums held in the UK [13].See also briefing on Local government: polls and referendums [14].

Read Akash Paun's blog – The referendum and the British constitution: strange bedfellows? [3]

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Links[1] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/never-mind-ballots-referendums-uk[2] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/1-Timeline.png[3] http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/13867/the-referendum-and-the-british-constitution[4] http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/6/newsid_2499000/2499297.stm[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement[6] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/2-Turnout.png[7] http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/9/newsid_2516000/2516477.stm

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[8] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/3-Results.png[9] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/4-Local.png[10] http://www.parliament.uk/topics/DevolutionArchive.htm[11] http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05000[12] http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05682[13] http://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/elections/referendums-held-in-the-uk/[14] http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN03409

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