Negative Ads

• What make an ad “negative”?

• How do voters respond to such ads?

Negative Campaign Ads

• As a strategy– Classic examples– What lessons– Always wrong?– What effects?

• Turnout• Voter opinions• Blow-back

Negative Campaign Ads

• Classic examples– Begs questions:

• What is negative?• What is unfair?

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– LBJ Daisy Girl ad– 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad– Just once

• What are voters supposed to hear? • What did they hear?

– Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid

1964 & Goldwater

• Daisey Girl• Ice Cream• KKK• Convention• East coast

1964 & Goldwater

• Would Goldwater have lost anyway?– Economy strong– Incumbent popular– LBJ also running positive ads– Nation at war– Goldwater did say those things

Negative Campaigns

• Classic Examples– Willie Horton– 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis– Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand”– Just once (or twice)

• How define candidate?• Why able to define candidate?

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Willie Horton

• Why did this one reach legend status?– Aired only once ‘anonymously’– Spawned free coverage– Woven into ‘official’campaign message– Opinion shifted

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Bush v. Dukakis 1988– Informal co-ordination (compare to superPacs)– Bush campaign could define an unknown

candidate – Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD– Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?

Negative Campaigns?

• Dukakis had it coming?• Tank photo among 100 photos that change

the World– Anne Frank portrait– Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL– Tienneman Square (tank standoff)

Tanks

1988 & Dukakis

• Would Dukakis have lost anyway?– GHW Bush Reagan’s VP– Reagan popular– Economy OK

Negative Campaigns

• Classic example– Jesse Helms, Hands– 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt

• Context matters– Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening

black voters with jail if they voted– “qualifications don’t matter…”

Negative campaigns

• Playing the race card?– Call Me, Harold Ford Jr.– Corker ad

– RNC / Corker campaign accused of racism

– Would Ford have lost anyway?• TN a “red” state

Negative Campaigns

• Classic examples– Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002– Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic

• Link conservative Dem to OsBL – Could ad have happened if not for 9/11?– Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest

thing since this

– Would Cleland have lost?

Negative Campaigns

• More recent examples– 2004 National elections– Karl Rove– GOP, “These are the stakes”

• Democrats = you will die?– at least that’s how they spun it

Negative Campaigns

• Bush v. Kerry, 2004– SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry’s words)– SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry lying)

• Independent hit from 527 org

• Wolves• Windsurfing

– Policy content? No appeal to fear?

Kerry & 2004

• Would Kerry have lost anyway?– Bush incumbent– Economy OK– Close election– Kerry led in national polls until August

• No robust response to SBVT ads

Negative Campaigns

• Recent examples– McCain 2008

• First ad• Disrespectful• Highest percent of ads negative

– Obama 2008• Country• Embrace• Enough $ to go negative and positive

2008 Campaign

• Any Democrat would have won– What effect of ads?– What effect of money?

2012 Primaries

• SuperPac spending vs. candidate spending– Gingrich SuperPac “What kind of man?”– Gingrich SuperPac “Blood Money”– Gingrich SuperPac ad Unelectable– Romney SuperPac Reagan ad– Romney SuperPac Unelectable– Romney Tom Brokaw ad

2012 Primaries

• Compare to 2008 Primary• What effect negative ads?• Romney able to beat back Newt’s SC surge

in FL• Could Romney win nomination w/o

negative ads?– Romney’s “unfavorable” rating rising

Negative Campaigns

• What lessons• Some on winning side, some on losing side• Potential to define a candidate

– Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry• Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal)• Potential for blowback

– Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)

Negative Campaigns

• When wrong• What criteria to say, too negative?

– Fear– Race– Religion– Policy?– Do we learn something…(other than fear, race,

religion..)

Negative ads

• What effects?– Reduce turnout (???)– Generate interest / attention to news– Generate dissatisfaction with choices

– (Re)define candidate• Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry, Romney• What if target lacks resources to respond…

The Virtue of Negative Ads

• What effects; Prof. John G. Geer• Is there policy content/ learning

– To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical

– Must have ‘vetting’• Analysis of ballot initiative ads• The Geer ad

Best Ad of Late

• Dale Peterson for Alabama Agriculture Commission

– First– Second