NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, TRENDS

&CHALLENGES

OFSRI LANKA

By

Major General Udaya Perera RWP RSP USP USAWC psc M.Sc(IND) M.Sc(USA) NDU-CT(USA)

INTRODUCTION

CHINA

INDIA

PAKISTANIRAN

MONGOLIA

Sri Lanka

Indian Ocean

Pacific Ocean

AFGHANISTANIRAQ

Maldives Island

BANGLADESH

NEPAL BHUTAN

BATTICALOA

KANDY

VAVUNIYA

COLOMBO

GALLE

JAFFNA

HAMBANTHOTA

ANURADHAPURA

TRINCOMALEE

MULAITHIVUKILINOCHCHI MULLAITTIVU

MANNAR

His Excellency Mahinda Rajapaksa The President of  the Democratic Socialist Republic of

Sri Lanka

THEN NOW

THEN NOW

THEN NOW

KILINOCHCHIWater Supply System Destroyed by the LTTE

BATTICALOA

HAMBANTOTA

COLOMBOKANDY

JAFFNA

TRINCOMALEE

KILINOCHCHI

Tamilnadu Factor

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Economy

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC• TGTE• GTF ( Global Tamil Forum)• HQ GP• ICET (Intl. Council of Eelam Tamils)• BTF (British Tamil Forum)• TCF (Tamil Centre France)

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

SlackersAggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

EU

Arab Spring

• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

“Nations have No Permanent Friends or Foes, they only have Permanent

Interests”- Lord Palmerston

(VUCA)

Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous

1. Common Global Threatsand Challenges

2. New Trends, Challenges and Concerns on National Security of Sri Lanka in Post Conflict Context

COMMON GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

Tsunami 2011

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

(NEET)

Not in Education, Employment or Training

Robberies

Unethical Hacking

Sleep During the Day

Man in the Middle Attacks

Child Abuse

Arms Smuggling

Drug Trafficking

Counterfeiting

Active During the NightNEETs

Net Intrusions

PremeditatedCrimes

Anti Social Activities

vV

``V ` `

V ` `

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Organized Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

26. Art Theft27. Cable Piracy28. Video Game Piracy29. Counterfeit Sporting Goods30. Counterfeit Pesticides31. Alcohol Smuggling32. Mobile Entertainment Piracy33. Counterfeit Cosmetics34. Movie Piracy35. Metals and Minerals Smuggling36. Counterfeit Aircraft Parts37. Counterfeit Weapons38. Kidnap and Ransom39. International Adoptions40. Fake Diplomas and Degrees41. Prostitution 42. Counterfeit Watches43. Book Piracy44. Counterfeit Money45. Nuclear Smuggling46. Counterfeit IDs and Passports47. Organ Trafficking48. Counterfeit Purses49. Counterfeit Lighters50. Counterfeit Batteries

1. Drug Trade2. Arms Smuggling 3. Human Traffckling 4. Marijuana 5. Illegal Gambling 6. Cocaine 7. Prescription Drugs 8. Heroin 9. Software Piracy 10. Oil Theft 11. Cigarette Smuggling 12. Counterfeit Foods 13. Counterfeit Auto Parts 14. Counterfeit Toys 15. Counterfeit Electronics16. Illegal Logging 17. Methamphetamine 18. Illegal Fishing 19. Human Smuggling 20. Wildlife Trafficking 21. Ecstasy 22. Music Piracy 23. Counterfeit Shoes 24. Counterfeit Clothing 25. Waste Dumping

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Environment/Climatic Changes and

Natural Disasters

“All terrorists share one common denominator; they “live” in the future, and

are convinced that they will defeat their enemies and achieve their political goals”

- Bruce Hoffman

THREAT SEVERITYHIGH

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

STRA

TEGI

C E

NVI

RON

MEN

T

AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA

FINANCE

TRADES/VENTURES

ARMS SMUGGLING

SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS

INT PROPAGANDA

ASSASSINATIONSSABOTAGE

DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM

DE-STAB ECONOMY

CHILD REC

TERRORISM

TERR ATTACKS

EXTORTIONS

LOW

EXTORTIONS

DRUG TRAFFICKING

HUMAN SMUGGLING

TAMIL NET

WORLD TAMIL MOV

PSY OPS

DE-STAB ECONOMY

COUNTER STATE MECHANISM

LTTE NETWORK

VIOLATING HR

FORCED RECRUITMENTS

LOCAL

SOUTH

EAST

NORTH

LTTE

STRATEGY

KADALPURA - SHIPPING

TRO

VIOLATING HR

FORCED LABOUR

BTA TCC TGTE BTF

GTF

TCFICET

LTTE

STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING

David C. Rapoport

FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM

1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)

FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM

1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)

FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM

1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)

In “INSURGENCY” - Terrorism is a Method In “TERRORISM” - Terrorism is a Logic

Dr. Tom Marks

MINNERIYA

KILINOCHCHI

MUHAMALAI

MAHAOYA

AMPARA

PULMODDAI

KANDY

NEGAMBO

OMANTHAI

HABARANA

VAVUNIYA

HOROWPOTHANA

COLOMBO

GALLE

JAFFNA

NUWARAELIYA

HAMBANTHOTA

ANURADHAPURA

DAMBULLA

TRINCOMALEE

BATTICALOA

VAKARAI

SAMPOORMAVILARU

KARADIYANARU

WELIOYAMANNAR

ARIPPUSILAWATTURAI

KUMANA

MULAITHIVU

STRENGTHENING ETHNIC ENCLAVES

ILLEGAL TAXATION AND BANKING

SMUGGLING ARMS/AMMO

CONVENTIONAL FORM OF DEFENCES

CONSCRIPTION ILLEGAL COURTS ILLEGAL POLICE ILLEGAL STAMPS & POSTAL

VIRTUAL COUNTER STATE 13,000 Km2

COUNTER STATE MECHANISM

BUILT NUMBER OF AIR STRIPS – LINKING THE WORLD

FORMING OF LAND, NAVAL & AIR WINGS

DEMANDED EELAM TERRITORY – 19,000 Km2 COMMUNICATION NETWORK

ETHNIC CLEANSINGKILINOCHCHI

BATTICALOA

TRINCOMALEE

THREAT SEVERITYHIGH

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

STRA

TEGI

C E

NVI

RON

MEN

T

AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA

FINANCE

TRADES/VENTURES

ARMS SMUGGLING

SEA PIRACY-SEA TIGERS

INT PROPAGANDA

ASSASSINATIONSSABOTAGE

DE-STAB ADMIN TERRORISM

DE-STAB ECONOMY

CHILD REC

TERRORISM

TERR ATTACKS

EXTORTIONS

LOW

EXTORTIONS

DRUG TRAFFICKING

HUMAN SMUGGLING

TAMIL NET

WORLD TAMIL MOV

PSY OPS

DE-STAB ECONOMY

COUNTER STATE MECHANISM

LTTE NETWORK

VIOLATING HR

FORCED RECRUITMENTS

LOCAL

SOUTH

EAST

NORTH

LTTE

STRATEGY

•Unorganized •Localized•Non-sponsored

• ISOLATED

KADALPURA - SHIPPING

TRO

VIOLATING HR

FORCED LABOUR

DEFEAT OF

THE LTTE

BTA TCC TGTE BTF

GTF

TCFICET

LTTE

1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) 5TH - ?

• Nuclear• Biological• Cyber • Transnational Crimes• Terrorism• Challenges and Security Threats due

to Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

NEW TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND CONCERNS ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF SRI LANKA

IN POST CONFLICT CONTEXT

• Ideological

• Constituting Ethnic Enclaves

• Non State Actors

• Perception

• Ideological Threat and International Network

• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves

• Non State Actors

• Perception

Tamilnadu Factor

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• Political Parties

with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting

Separatist Ideology• Extremist

Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC • TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

SlackersAggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

EU

Arab Spring

Economy

• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

TGTE - Transactional Government of Tamil EelamBTF - British Tamil ForumMTF - Malaysian Tamil ForumHQ GP - Headquarter GroupTCC - Tamil Coordinating Committee

GTF - Global Tamil Forum

TGTE

V RUDRAKUMARAN PRIME MINISTER

GTF

DR. S. J. EMMANUEL PRESIDENT

TCC

PERINBANAYAGAM SIVAPARAN

@ NEDIYAWANLEADER

HQ GROUP

SEKARAPILLAI VINAGAMOORTHI @ VINAYAGAM @ ARIVALAGANSENIOR INTELLIGENCE LEADER

PRESENT LTTE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK

BTF

TCFMTF

Tamilnadu Factor

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

Aggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

EU

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Arab Spring

Slackers `Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

Economy

Economic Refugees

• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF

• Ideological Threat and International Network

• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves

• Non State Actors

• Perception

Tamilnadu Factor

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Economy

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

Slackers Aggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

EU

Arab Spring

Ethnic Enclave

• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF

• Ideological Threat and International Network

• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves

• Non State Actors

• Perception

Violent

Non Violent

Non State Actors

Tamilnadu Factor

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Economy

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• Political Parties with Separatist Ideology• Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

Slackers Aggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

EU

Arab Spring

Ethnic Enclave

• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF

TREATY OF WESTPHALIA

1648

PRINCIPLE OF TREATY OF WESTPHALIA

• Sovereignty• Equality• Internationally Binding Treaties• Non Intervention of Internal Affairs

• Ideological Threat and International Network

• Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves

• Non State Actors

• Perception

Tamilnadu Factor

Tamil PopNorth & East

1,611,036

Sri Lankan Refugees

• NGO / INGO• TNA (Tamil National Alliance)•Media Promoting Separatist Ideology• Extremist Religious Elements

Tamil Population65 Millions

UNHRC

GLOBAL

REGIONAL

SOUTH

NORTH &

EAST

CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM

• Friendly Nations

• SAARC

• Anti LTTE Media

• National Political Parties

• Other Minority Communities

• Business

Media

Global Tamil

Population74 Million

SlackersAggressors

• Unemployed• NEETs• Under Employed• Trade Unions• Cooperates• Indian Tamils

VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL

TAMIL DIASPORA

• Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO)• Pro LTTE Political Gps

Internationalization of Local Political Issues

• Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

• Pro Govt Political Elements

• Bureaucracy

NAT

ION

AL

• War Widows• Unemployed • Beneficiaries• Disables• Displaced• Indian Tamil

• Neutral Nations

Media

Media

Media

NGO / INGO

Tamil pop 3 Million

South – 46%North – 54%

UN / INGO

Enablers

Nations SupportingPro LTTE Org

EU

Arab Spring

Economy• Defence• Intelligence• Para Military• Police

GoSL

• TGTE• GTF • HQ GP• ICET • BTF •TCF

CONCLUSION

MEANS WAYS (6R) ENDS

Elements of

National Power

Reconstituting the Government authority over LTTE controlled areas through Humanitarian Operation

PEACE Conflict

5RReconstructionResettlementRehabilitationReintegrationReconciliation

Sustainable PEACE

&DEVELOPMENT

Post Conflict

THANK YOU