Post on 30-Jan-2016
description
National Bureau of Statistics of PRC
Improvements on the Issues of 12th Workshop: Finance,
Health, Education and Owner Occupied Dwelling
Estimation LU Feng
Department of National Accounts, NBS
30 Nov., 2009 Haikou, China
1. FISIM Estimation
From 2008, the NBS begins to use reference
rate approach to calculate the FISIM, which is an
important improvement in the GDP estimation of
China.
Finance: Banking Industry
1. FISIM Estimation
Old method:
FISIM = (Loan interest revenue - Deposit interest expense)
+(Revenue from transactions with financial institutions
- Expense from transactions with financial
institutions)
+ Investment revenue
+ Rental revenue
Finance: Banking Industry
1. FISIM estimation
New method:
FISIM for the depositors = Annual average deposits of
financial institutions × Reference rate – Actual interest
payment of deposits
FISIM for the borrowers = Actual interest income of loans –
Annual average loans of financial institutions ×Reference rate
Finance: Banking Industry
1. FISIM estimation
New method:
Total FISIM = FISIM for the depositors + FISIM for the
borrowers
Where,
Reference rate = (Deposit rate + Loan rate) ÷ 2
Finance: Banking Industry
2. The central bank of China – the
People’s Bank of China now is treated
as enterprise institution in GDP
estimation. Before, it was treated as
government institution.
Finance: Banking Industry
1. Real VAD Estimation
The real value-added estimation of
securities now uses volume extrapolation
approach instead of single deflation
approach.
Finance: Securities Industry
1. Real VAD Estimation
Old method:
Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator
where the deflator is equal to the weighted
average of CPI and IPI (Investment Price
Index).
Finance: Securities Industry
1. Real VAD Estimation
New method:
Real VAD = Real VAD of last year
× Stock transaction volume index
Finance: Securities Industry
2. Nominal VAD is subdivided into
more detailed level to calculate.
According to the Second Economic
Census’s data, value added of
securities is subdivided into three
parts, which are securities, fund and
futures.
Finance: Securities Industry
3. The treatment of stamp duty on
securities transactions is improved.
Now only stamp duty of securities
transactions paid by agencies is
treated as production tax of securities,
not including stamp duty on securities
transactions paid by individuals.
Finance: Securities Industry
Real VAD Estimation
Real VAD estimation still uses the
single deflation method, but the
deflator is improved.
Finance: Insurance Industry
Real VAD Estimation
Old method:
Deflator = Weighted average of CPI and IPI
New method:
Deflator = (Investment revenue / Insurance output) × Deflator of securities + [(Insurance output - Investment revenue) ÷ Insurance output] × Weighted average of CPI and IPI
Finance: Insurance Industry
Real VAD Estimation
Real VAD estimation still uses the
single deflation method, but the
deflator is improved.
Health
Real VAD Estimation
In the old method, the deflator was the
health care and personal articles price
index, while in the new method the
deflator is the health care price index.
Health
Real VAD Estimation
As education includes both market
activities and nonmarket activities,
now we use the average of deflation
method result and quantity
extrapolation method result as the real
VAD result of education.
Education
Real VAD Estimation
Old method:
Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Education price index
Education
Real VAD EstimationNew method:
Real VAD = (Real VAD_Def + Real VAD_Exa) / 2
Where,
Real VAD_Def = Nominal VAD / Education price index
Real VAD_Exa = Real VAD of last year × employee number index
Education
Real VAD Estimation
The real value-added estimation of Owner
Occupied Dwelling now uses volume
extrapolation approach instead of single
deflation approach.
Owner Occupied Dwelling
Real VAD Estimation
Old method:
Real VAD = Nominal VAD / Deflator
where the deflator is the renting price index of houses.
New method:
Real VAD = Real VAD of last year × Floor space of residents index
Owner Occupied Dwelling
Thank you for your attention!