My view of monetary policy 2006-2011 Handelsbanken, March 18 th 2011 First Deputy Governor Svante...

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My view of monetary policy

2006-2011Handelsbanken, March 18th

2011

First Deputy GovernorSvante Öberg

Figure 1. Real short-term interest rates in the USA and the euro areaPer cent

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Reuters

-5

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-1

0

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

USA

Euro area

Figure 2. Real housing prices USAIndex 1950 = 100

Source: Robert J. Schiller, Princeton University

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Figure 3. Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

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70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Figure 4. Commodity pricesIndex 2005=100

Sources: The Economist and Reuters

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350

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Total

Metals

Other agricultural products

Food

Crude oil

Figure 5. Nominal and real short-term interest rates in SwedenPer cent

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statistics SwedenNote. Real rate is nominal rate deflated with CPIF.

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Nominal short-term rate

Real short-term rate

Figure 6. GDP gap in real time and in February 2011Per cent

Source: The Riksbank

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0

2

4

6

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05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

GDP gap in real time

MPR February 2011

Figure 7. InflationAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

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CPI

CPIF

HICP

Figure 8. Inflation expectationsPer cent

Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

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4

0

1

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4

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

1 year

2 years

5 years

Figure 9. Lending to households and house pricesAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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8

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12

14

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98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Lending to households

House prices

Figure 10. Nominal rate and Taylor ratePer cent

Source: The Riksbank

-1

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Repo rate

Repo rate according to Taylor rule

Figure 11. GDP growthAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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-4

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0

2

4

6

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0

2

4

6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Figure 12. UnemploymentPer cent, 3-month moving average, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Mean 2000-2008

Figure 13. InflationAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

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5

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

CPICPIFCPIF excluding energy and food

Figure 14. Central banks’ balance sheet totalsPercentage of GDP

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15

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25

30

0

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10

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20

25

30

Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11

The Riksbank

ECB

Federal reserve

Figure 15. Policy ratesPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

0

1

2

3

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6

0

1

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5

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04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Sweden

Euro area

USA

Figure 16. Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-1

0

1

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5

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90 95 00 05 10

Figure 17. The repo rate and the repo-rate pathPer cent, quarterly mean values

Source: The Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Figure 18. InflationAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

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1

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5

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

CPI

CPIF

Figure 19. RU indicatorPer cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

-3

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0

1

2

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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Figure 20. UnemploymentPer cent, 3-month moving mean value, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Mean 2000-2008

Figure 21. Labour shortagesPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data, share of business sector companies

Source: NIER

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Mean 1996-2008

Figure 22. Beveridge curve Percentage of labour force

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

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1,4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1988

1997

2007

2010

Sources: Employment Office and Statistics Sweden

Vaca

nci

es

Unemployment