Post on 18-Jul-2015
Objectives
Understand the multiplier concept.Utilise the multiplier formula.Explain the multiplier determinants.Analyse the interaction of the multiplier,
accelerator and economic cycle.Evaluate the significance of marginal
propensity to Save, Tax and Import.
Introduction
In economics or macroeconomics, a multiplier is a factor of proportionality that measures how much an endogenous variable changes in response to a change in some exogenous variable.
For example, suppose variable x changes by 1 unit, which causes another variable y to change by M units. Then the multiplier is M.
The Multiplier effect
Process by which any change in a component of AD results in greater final change in real GDP.
The size of the multiplier is determined by the size of the leakages from the circular flow of income.
Factorpayments
Consumption ofdomestically
produced goodsand services (Cd)
The circular flow of incomeThe circular flow of income
Firms
Households
Factorpayments
Consumption ofdomestically
produced goodsand services (Cd)
Investment (I)
Governmentexpenditure (G)
Exportexpenditure (X)
BANKS, etc
Netsaving (S)
GOV.
Nettaxes (T)
ABROAD
Importexpenditure (M)
LEAKAGES
INJECTIONS
The circular flow of incomeThe circular flow of income
Let’s assume Government increases spending on education, raising wages of teachers by `5 Cr. i.e. Injection.
Teachers spend this money, which in turn becomes income for other people.
The proportion of income that goes towards leakages is the Marginal Propensity to Withdraw [MPW].
Let’s assume half the injection goes towards savings, tax or imports. That means the MPW is 0.5. Then the question arise, “What happens to the actual GDP?”
The Multiplier effect
Total Income of A
This square represents the initial increase in income of `5Cr by the Teachers or “A”
If marginal propensity to withdraw is 0.5; half is spent (MPC 0.5)
Total Income left for A
Total Expense for A or Total Income for B
Half of the new income is spent by “B” to “C”
Total Income of AT
otal Ex pense
of B or T
otal Incom
e of C
Total Income left for B
Half of the new income of “C” is spent and becomes income for other people i.e. “D”
Total Income of A
Total Income of B
Total Income left for C
Total Expense of C or Total
Income of D
Total income so far by “A”, “B”, “C” & “D”
Total Income of A
Total Income of C
Total Income of B
Total Income of
D
Eventually…
The initial `5Cr eventually becomes `10Cr through the multiplier effect. National income has been multiplied by factor of 2.
Formulas for Calculating MPW:MPW = MPS + MPT + MPMK = 1/[MPS + MRT + MPM] = 1/MPW
Accelerator
The theory of investment that states the level of investment depends on the rate of change of the national income.
Recession: Firms decreases its investment.
Boom: Firms increases its investment.
“Investment mainly depends on RATE OF CHANGE but not on its actual level.”
Interaction of Multiplier & Accelerator
This is a theoretical explanation of the Economic Cycle.
Economy growing leads to investment which leads to a multiplier effect which leads to further economic growth.
However, if economy in recession the effect works in the opposite direction.
Evaluating the Interaction of Multiplier & Accelerator Model
Economy might be growing, but a question always arise i.e. whether the business will be sustain or not?
Investment decisions are large and complex, made well before changes in the economic conditions.
Exogenous factors just as influential.
‘No more boom and bust’ – Governments can smooth out the economic cycle through fiscal and monetary policies.
However, investment is an important component of AD and firms do respond to consumer demands. The multiplier model is not the only force behind the economic cycle.
ConclusionEconomist Robert Barro believes that the Keynesian
multiplier is close to zero. For every dollar the government borrows and spends, spending elsewhere in the economy falls by almost the same amount.
The modern theory of the multiplier was developed in the 1930s, by Kahn, Keynes, Giblin, and others, following earlier work in the 1890s by the Australian economist Alfred De Lissa, the Danish economist Julius Wulff, and the German-American economist N. A. J. L. Johannsen.