Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1

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Transcript of Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1

Suvit MaesinceeSasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)

September 20, 2009

Moving Towards

Liquid Phase Industry

• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness

• Industry In Transition

• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making

Agenda

• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness

• Industry In Transition

• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making

Agenda

Globalization

New Markets Climate Change

Environment & Natural Resources

NewRegulations

Natural Disasters

SecurityConcerns

Disruptive Technology

Political Unrests

CommodityPrices

New Competitors

New Partnerships

New Business Models

New Customer Expectations

Changing State of Nature

Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity

• Connectivity

• Interactivity

• Mobility

• Virtuality

Public

Private

People

Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3

Open

Multiplicity

Self

Reflexivity

Local

Overlapping

Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity

The New Politics of Space & Time

• Dis-embedding /

Re-embedding

• The World in Pieces

Spatial

• Temporariness

• Instantaneity

• Delay Gratification

Temporal

Time in Space

Space in Time

Consequences

Hyperconsumption

Hypercompetition

Nanosecond CultureHypermodernity

Culture of Immediacy

Globalization

of RisksDemocratization of

Power & Wealth

The New Age of

Capitalism

The End of

the Nation-State

Global Forces & Trends

Democratization of Power & Wealth

Global GDP* %

1820 70 1913 50 73 2005

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

25

50

75

% Global GDP 2015

China

Other

India

Japan

USA

Western Europe

Other Regions

0

100

20

40

60

80

ROW

Asia

China

AfricaLatin

American

Asia

Japan

Europe The US

The New Geopolitics

A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World

Bipolarity

Unipolarity

Multipolarity

Source: Tanaka Akihiko

First

Among Equals

The 1+X World

Thailand

• US

• Japan

• Europe

• India

• Russia

• China

Existing

Triad

New

Triad

• Japan

• Korea

• China

Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity

Globalization

of RisksDemocratization of

Power & Wealth

The New Age of

Capitalism

The End of

the Nation-State

Global Forces & Trends

Whole Picture of the World Economy

Risks

Threats

Crises

Opportunity

Growth

Prosperity

Interaction

One Side of the Coin The Other Side of the Coin

Globalization of Risks

GlobalLocal

Glo

ba

lL

oc

al

• Terrorism

• Mass Production

of Refugee

• Extreme Poverty

• Genocide

• Civil War

• Climate Change

• Financial Crisis

•Pandemic Diseases

Risk Society

• Hyper-conflict

• Imbalance

• Instability

• Insecurity

We are living in a Global Risk Community

e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis

• Climate Change

• Global Financial Crises

• Suicide Attacks

• Industrial Accidents

• Wars

Natural Catastrophes

The Evolution of Global Risks

Twentieth

Century

Risks

Twenty First

Century

Risks

Global risks occur in multiple dimensions

Spatial

Temporal

Some risks are spreading over national

borders and even over continents

Some risks have a long latency period,

so that their future effects cannot be

reliably determined and restricted

Many new risks are the result of complex

processes involving long chains of effects,

so their causes and effects cannot be

determined with sufficient precision

Social

Ma

gn

itu

de

of

Cri

sis

Time

Global

JobCrisis

Global

EconomicCrisis

Global

FinancialTurmoil

Commodity

Price

BubbleReal

EstateBubble

Dot

ComBurst

Asian

FinancialCrisis

Se

ve

rity

Within

a Decade

Time

We are facing with perpetual uncertainty

Incalculable

Non-Compensable

Their consequence are in principle incalculable

Given the new quality of “threats to humanity”,

the logic of compensation is breaking down and

is being replaced by the principle of precaution

through prevention

The impact of global risks

Democratic Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the

powerful and the powerless

In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines the attitude towards life

Security

Freedom &

EqualityHuman

Security

National

Security

Management of

uncertainty, risk

& insecurity

Construction &

maintenance of

social & political

order

Security is the legal assurance of freedom

Laissez-faire

Precaution

Can Thailand accommodate global risks and

opportunities?

Risks

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

Thailand

ASEAN

Asia

World

• Climate

Change

• Endemic/

Chronic

Disease

• Economic

Crisis

North Korea

Terrorism

Political Turmoil

The Rise of Asia

Relationship w/ China, India

AEC

Mekong Region

Border

Conflict

Myanmar

Migration

The Rise of the Rest

The Age of Africa

Regional Hub

Bridging policy and managerial implications

Macro

Opportunity

Micro

Opportunity

Macro

Risk

Micro

Risk

Source: DB Research

Double

Winners

Double

Losers

Beneficiaries from Climate Change

under Government Control

Food

Industry

Tourism

Auto-

motive

Chemical

Industry

Textile

& Clothing

Building Materials,

Paper Industry

Metal IndustryEnergy Sector

(Fossil Fuels)

Renewable

Energies

Mechanical

& Electrical

Engineering

Finance Agriculture

& Forestry

Construction&

Associated Sector

Transportation

Regulatory

Market

Economy

Condition

(+)

(-)

Environmental Climate Dimension (+)

(-)

Beneficiaries from Government

Measures with Climate Risks

Risks

Threats

Crises

Growth

Opportunity

Prosperity

Interaction

A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven

vicious circle are highly associated

Order Chaos

Laissez-faire

Precaution

Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into conflicts

“When in doubt,

opt for doubt”

“When in doubt,

opt against doubt”

Globalization

of RisksDemocratization of

Power & Wealth

The New Age of

Capitalism

The End of

the Nation-State

Global Forces & Trends

Globalization of Public Goods

Global

Commons

Shifting in Centricity

Economic

Social

Local Global

Company

CentricConformance

Community

CentricConformance

Global

CentricConformance

Individualization

Self Governance

GlobalGovernance

Commonization

The End of Nation-State?

Liquid Modernity

Nation-State

Sham

Standards

Rival

Standards

Club

Standards

Harmonized

Standards

Hig

h C

on

flic

tL

ow

Co

nfl

ict

Div

erg

en

ce

of

inte

res

ts

am

on

g g

rea

t p

ow

ers

Source: Daniel W. Drezner “All Politics Is Global”

High Conflict Low Conflict

Divergence of interests between

great powers and other international actors

Globalization

of RisksDemocratization of

Power & Wealth

The New Age of

Capitalism

The End of

the Nation-State

Global Forces & Trends

The End of Socialism

CapitalismSocialism

Free Market

Economy

There is no alternative

Capitalism

Managed

Economy

Free Market

Economy

Coordinated

Economy

The End of Capitalism ?

• Setting coordinating

mechanism

• Sharing more information

and warning signals

• Making the system

more transparent

• Minimizing the asymmetric

information and unfair

practices

• Pursuing the tighten

regulation and

de-leveraging measures

Mode of Operations

Ethno-

Centricity

Poly-

Centricity

Geo-

Centricity

Ca

pit

ali

sm

Managed

Economy

Coordinated

Economy

Free Market

Economy

Centralization & Concentration

Change in Consumption PatternP

urc

hasin

gP

ow

er

Necessity of Goods

High Low

High

Low

Adaptation

According to

the Crisis

• Earning

• Spending/Saving Ratio

• Economize

• Reprioritize

Increase Consumer Purchasing Power

Pu

rch

asin

gP

ow

er

Necessity of Goods

High Low

High

Low

Adaptation

According to

the Crisis

• Government

stimulus

package

• Consumer

finance

Increase Affordability

Pu

rch

asin

gP

ow

er

Necessity of Goods

High Low

High

Low

Adaptation

According to

the Crisis

• Value for money

• No Frill/ Reduced

options

• Fighting brands/

Private label

• Special offered

Change in Competitive Intensity

Number of Competitors

Ac

cu

mu

lati

ve

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re

Accu

mu

lati

ve

Mark

et

Sh

are

Number of Competitors

Ac

cu

mu

lati

ve

Mark

et

Sh

are

Post CrisisScenario I

Post CrisisScenario II

Pre-CrisisConcentration Ratio

• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness

• Industry In Transition

• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making

Agenda

Post Knowledge BasedSociety

Reorienting the World

Materialization

Humanization

Private Interest Public Interest

Knowledge BasedSociety

IndustrialSociety

Care & Share

Reorienting the Mental Model

Materialization

Humanization

Private Interest Public Interest

Sense & Response

Make & Sell

A Balanced Nation

Value Creation

Economy

Caring

Society

Entrepreneurial

Culture

Self Expression

Value

People

with Knowledge

& Morality

Communal

Value

Care & Share

Culture

Sustainable

Development

Social

Well-Being

Economic

Wealth

Human

Wisdom

Environmental

Wellness

Economic

WealthSocial

Well-being

Human

Wisdom

Environmental

Wellness

Economic

Wealth

Social

Well-being

Human

Wisdom

Environmental

Wellness

Strategic Gaps

Economic

Based

Industry

Environmental

Friendly ?

Social

Responsibility ?

Human

Potentiality ?

• Efficiency

• Profitability

• Growth

Challenges Facing Economic based Industry

Ex

isti

ng

Ma

xim

um

Cap

ac

ity

Positive

Sum Game

Negative

Sum Game

Time

Presence

Oblivious

Trade-off

Win-Win

Positive

Collective Action

Environmental Friendly ?

CorporateGovernance

CorporatePhilanthropy

Corporate

SocialResponsibility

Corporate

SocialEntrepreneurship

Global

CorporateCitizenship

Social Responsibility ?

• Mass Production

•Corporate Governance

•Asymmetry of

Information

•Economies of Scarcity

•Owning the Asset

•Consumer/Producer

•Market Segmentation

•Goods for Elite

• Mass Customization

•Market Governance

•Democratization of

Information

•Network Externality

•Gaining the Access

•B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator

•Value Chain Integration

•Goods for Everyone

•Creative Collaboration

•People Governance

•Democratization of

Creativity

•Economies of Reciprocity

•Empowering the People

•P2P Prosumer

•Open Innovation/ Creativity

•Goods For/By Everyone

Industrial Age Knowledge Age Creative Age

Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”

Human Potentiality ?

• Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness

• Industry In Transition

• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making

Agenda

A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio

Social

Well-Being

Economic

Wealth

Human

Wisdom

Environmental

Wellness

Social

Centric

Industries

Economic

Centric

Industries

Human

Centric

Industries

Environmental

Centric

Industries

The New Portfolio of Industries

Social

Centric

Industries

Economic

Centric

Industries

Human

Centric

Industries

Environmental

Centric

Industries

• Creative

Economy

• Service

Industries

• Knowledge

Industries

• OTOP

• BOP

• Social Production

• Peer Production

• Distributed

Creativity

• Alternative

Energy

• Recycle

Business

• Manufacturing

Resource

Spending

Content

SocialContent

Knowledge/

CreativeContent

Resource

SavingContent

Efficiency CreativitySustainability Co-Prosperity

Industry Cluster Redefined

Economic Centric

Industry Cluster

Human Centric

Industry Cluster

Social Centric

Industry Cluster

Environmental Centric

Industry Cluster

Interaction among clusters enhance value creation

Economic

Centric Industry

Social

Centric Industry

Human

Centric Industry

Environmental

Centric Industry

Welfare

Economy

Competitive

Economy

Innovative

Economy

Growth

Economy

CreativeBusiness

Value

Creation

Value

Added

Creative Value Creation

Environmental Value Creation

Welfare

Economy

Competitive

Economy

Innovative

Economy

Growth

Economy

Energy SavingBusiness

Value

Creation

Value

Added

Economic

Centric Industry

Social

Centric Industry

Human

Centric Industry

Environmental

Centric Industry

Social Value Creation

Welfare

Economy

Competitive

Economy

Innovative

Economy

Growth

Economy

Social

Enterprise

Value

Creation

Value

Added

Economic

Centric Industry

Social

Centric Industry

Human

Centric Industry

Environmental

Centric Industry

Industry Capacity Building

Economic

Centric

Industry

Social

Centric

Industry

Human

Centric

Industry

Environmental

Centric

Industry

Economic

Wealth

Social

Well-being

Environmental

Wellness

Human

Wisdom

Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness