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“More & better jobs”Patterns of job growth and changing quality of work in the EU: A business function approach

COST Seminar28-29 April 2011HIVA-K.U.LeuvenLeuven

Monique RamioulSem Vandekerckhove

HIVA-K.U.Leuven

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Introduction

The [European] Union has today set itself a new

strategic goal for the next decade: to become the

most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based

economy in the world capable of sustainable

economic growth with more and better jobs and

greater social cohesion

Lisbon European Council 23 and 24 March 2000

Presidency Conclusion

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Introduction

• Policy: more and better jobs– European Employment Strategy, 1997– Lisbon summit, 2000 (“more”-targets)– Laeken Summit, 2001 (“better”-indicators)– Europe 2020 strategy

• Research questions– How to identify more jobs rather than growing sectors?

– Are these jobs better? What is the quality of work?

• Issues– Finding reliable data covering the EU

– Including quality of work-indicators

– Measuring a trend effect

– And many more!

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Contents

• Data– EU-Labour Force Survey– Quality of work indicators

• More Jobs– Bart score– Sector employment growth in the EU

• More Jobs– Business functions– Sector composition– The business function approach– Growth of business functions– Patterns of growth

• Better jobs– Critical spots in growing business functions– Patterns of growth and changing quality of work in the EU

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DATA

EU-Labour force survey

Quality of work indicators

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European Union Labour Force Survey

• Large sample: approx. 1,7 mio of individuals, covering the population– In private households in the EU 27– Of people aged 15 and over– Of employed as well as unemployed citizens

• Starting in 1983, continuing harmonisation process• Now quarterly survey• Questions on labour participation using the same concepts,

definitions, classifications in all countries– Unemployment– Sectors: NACE– Occupations: ISCO-88 (COM)– Qualifications: ISCED– Regions: NUTS

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Variables

• Trade off between content and sample size• Main variables

– Sex– Age groups– nationality– Education– Economic activity– Occupation

• Main topics – Professional status– Fulltime – parttime (+involuntary)– Fixed-term contract (+duration)– Working time (usually and actually)– Unemployment (duration)– Homework– Atypical working time (WE, shift, evening, night)– + ad hoc modules

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Labour force

Employed person

Labour Force

Unemployed person

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes Yes Yes

No

No

No

No

Person of 15 years ormore living in a privatehousehold

Person did any work forpay or profit during thereference week

Person was not workingbut had a job or businessfrom which absent in thereference week

Unpaid family worker

Person, 15-74 years old,was not seekingemployment because ajob which would startwithin 3 months hadalready been found

Person, 15-74 years old,was seeking employment

Person had duringlast 4 weeks takenactive steps to finda job

Person could havestarted to workimmediately (within2 weeks)

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Accessibility

• Microdata– Limited detail (1 digit NACE / ISCO)– Expensive

• Downloadable tables– Eurostat web page– http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/

• Custom tables– Ad hoc requests– Tables (aggregated data)– Extrapolated figures– Detailed NACE and ISCO breakdowns– Limited number of variables crossed– Hidden figures for small cell sizes

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Quality of work

• QOW dimensions– Economist approach: A. Sen, E. Schokkaert et al. (KUL)– Policy elaboration: Muñoz de Bustillo et al.– Psychological approach: D. Holman (WALQING)

Area Dimension Subdimension Characteristics

Work quality work organization Job demands Workload, ambient demands, cognitive demands

Job resourcesJob discretion, social support, autonomous work groups

Employment quality

Wages and payment system

Wage level, performance related pay, benefits

Security and flexibility Security Contractual status

FlexibilityFlexible working arrangements, working time arrangements

Empowerment quality

Skills and development

Training provided, opportunity for development

Engagement and representation

Employee engagement and communication practices

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A bit of a spider web

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EU-LFS indicators

• Insufficient for composite indexes at lower levels– Small amount of indicators/dimensions– Binary answers– Limited / no crossing

• Variables– Permanency of the job– Full time/part time– Actual and usual hours– Sunday work– Working at night– Shift work– Evening work– Saturday work– Working at home– …

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Indicators

• Indicator of choice: permanency of the contract– Objective indicator– High response rate– Strong correlation with other QOW-items (Gallie, 2007)– Interaction with other QOW-items: weak contract means no

escape from bad QOW

• Complex interpretation– Variations can be explained

• by “country” characteristics, incl. institutional context and national regulation, economic and labour market specificities, etc. etc.

• By sector characteristics, incl. socio-technical conditions, regulation,…• By business function/ occupational group characteristics

– EU-LFS data allow for a simple multilevel model incl. country, sector and occupation

– Most variance (~75%) is explained at the occupational level

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Assessment

• Pro– Large sample– Largest data source in many countries– Eurostat co-ordinated: internationally comparable– Used as a reference for weighting other survey data– Qualitative information (often not available in administrative databases)– Long time range: started in 1983 and since 2000 harmonised for most of EU

• Not perfect– Methodology may vary by country– Retrospective questions– Recall problems increase as time goes by which can increase non-response

and reduce quality of results– Proxy interviews– Retrospective questioning especially problematic for proxy interviews– Coding practices vary and can change over time– Not in depth for specific topics– Stringent privacy policy

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MORE JOBS

BART score

Sector employment growth

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Issues

• Trends Which period to study ?• ScopeWhat is an EU average ?• Meaning What is growth ?

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Period

• Crises, revolutions– Change from planned to market economies NMS in 1990s– Financial crisis 2008: we do not want to test shock-resistance– Solution: select period in-between

• Business cycle changes ‘sector mix’– Construction benefits from upswing– Public sector steady at downturn– Solution: compare peak periods, assuming maximum labour input

• From policy– Lisbon summit– European Union enlargement (NMS)– EMU enlargement

• From theory– Technological progress

• 41% internet users in 2002, 62% in 2007

– Globalization: competition, outsourcing, convergence (LME-CME)

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Period

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EU average

• Countries are vastly different in sizes– Big five: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain– Medium size: Ireland, Norway, Slovakia, Denmark, Bulgaria,

Belgium, …– Small ones: Malta, Cyprus, Luxemburg, …

• Principle?– Some countries have a higher impact– Every country = a case

• Solution– Sector size relative to national employment (shares)– Cardinalizing employment growth within sector– Averaging for the EU over all member states

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Introduction

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Introduction

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Growth index (BART score)

• Relative growth (%)– Measuring “revolution”– More outspoken for small sectors

• Absolute growth (pp)– Measuring “impact”– More outspoken for large sectors

• Between revolution & impact– Change or structural growth– Measuring small sectors becoming big,

big sectors becoming bigger

• Solution– “Reverse logic”– Accent on RG for large sectors– Accent on AG for small sectors– BART score

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BART score

• Absolute growth vs. relative growth– RG: measure of revolution– AG: measure of evolution

• WALQING: quality of work in new and growing jobs– RG: new occupations stand out– AG: growing occupations stand out

• BART: balanced absolute & relative trends– Similar to BIRCH scale (product of RG & AG)– For trends based on percentages (score, shares, …)– Weighted average of AG and (transformed) RG– BART = •RG + (1- )•AG– Weights: the percentages in t-1

• If 0: only absolute growth counts• Towards 1: absolute growth

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Formula

WeightsTrends1/exp(-RG) ranges [1;0]Central point needs to be 0 (not 1/e = 0.67)Restoring min/maxIncreaseDecrease

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Distribution of components

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Comments

• “Structural growth”– Important changes in relative trends show AG– Important changes in absolute trends show RG

• Prevents outliers for very small figures• Hinders catch-up effects• Tested for sector data

– Close to AG – … because of small shares

• Applicable to other figures– Growth of business functions– Growth in percentage score on QOW indicator– …

• Assumptions– Perfect substitution elasticity: 1pp = 1%– Ordinal equivalent but no strict metric– Form of transformations (other possibilities: chart)

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Other transformations

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Results (BART)

Rank Sector BART

1 Construction 2.45%

2 Other business activities 2.38%

3 Health and social work 1.30%

4 Computer and related activities 0.51%

5 Education 0.44%

6 Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.38%

7 Activities of households as employers of domestic staff 0.36%

8 Hotels and restaurants 0.34%

9 Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities of travel agencies 0.31%

10 Real estate activities 0.30%

11 Recreational, cultural and sporting activities 0.28%

12 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 0.20%

13 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 0.17%

14 Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 0.16%

15 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 0.14%

16 Other service activities 0.12%

17 Activities of membership organizations not elsewhere classified 0.11%

18 Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities 0.07%

19 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel

0.07%

20 Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 0.07%

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Results (BART)

21 Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods

0.05%

22 Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 0.04%

23 Recycling 0.04%

24 Research and development 0.02%

25 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 0.01%

26 Extra-territorial organizations and bodies 0.00%

27 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods

0.00%

28 Collection, purification and distribution of water -0.01%

29 Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus not elsewhere classified -0.02%

30 Other mining and quarrying -0.03%

31 Mining of uranium and thorium ores -0.04%

32 Manufacture of tobacco products -0.06%

33 Mining of metal ores -0.06%

34 Fishing, fish farming and related service activities -0.06%

35 Water transport -0.06%

36 Manufacture of other transport equipment -0.07%

37 Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel -0.07%

38 Forestry, logging and related service activities -0.09%

39 Air transport -0.10%

40 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products -0.10%

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Results (BART)

41 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas; service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction

-0.11%

42 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting

-0.12%

43 Manufacture of office machinery and computers -0.12%

44 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products -0.18%

45 Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media -0.18%

46 Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products -0.18%

47 Mining of coal and lignite; extraction of peat -0.19%

48 Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus -0.20%

49 Land transport; transport via pipelines -0.20%

50 Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not elsewhere classified -0.23%

51 Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security -0.23%

52 Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified -0.26%

53 Electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply -0.27%

54 Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear

-0.34%

55 Manufacture of basic metals -0.35%

56 Post and telecommunications -0.35%

57 Manufacture of textiles -0.53%

58 Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur -0.58%

59 Manufacture of food products and beverages -0.98%

60 Agriculture, hunting and related service activities -3.33%

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Divergence

45 74 85 72 80 51 95 55 63 70 92 28 34 67 75 93 91 90 50 33 71 65 37 73 52 25 99 41 31 14 12 16 13 05 61 35 23 02 62 26 11 20 30 22 24 21 10 32 60 36 66 29 40 19 27 64 17 18 15 01

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

BART

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Divergence

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Conclusions

• Strong dispersion• Average BART score 0• Structural growth in a wide range of sectors

Knowledge-intensive sectors Manufacture of medical precision instrumentsComputer and related IndustriesResearch and development

Services to consumers Real estateTravel agenciesHotels and restaurantsRecreationRetail trade

Business Services WholesaleFinancial servicesOther business services

Not-for-profit Health and Social WorkEducation

‘Old’ sectors with mainly manual work

ConstructionManufacture of metal productsAutomotive

‘New’ sectors with mainly manual work

Sewage and refusal disposalRecycling

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MORE JOBS

Business functions

Sector composition

The business function approach

Growth of business functions

Patterns of growth

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Business functions

• Definition– A cluster of technologically

and economically distinct activities

– Which are usually performed together

– As a result of processes of division of labour within and between companies

• Distinctions between ‘core’ and ‘support’

• Scheme: Porter, 1985

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Levels of analysis

Sector employment Business function Individual job

Sec

tor Steel

Security

Government

IT

Logistics

…

Textile & Clothing

Su

bse

cto

r Curtains

Matrasses

B2B

…

Clothing

Bu

sin

ess

Fu

nct

ion Marketing

Administration

R&D

Logistics

…

Core production

Occ

up

atio

n Bleeching

Printing

Cutting

…

Sewing operators

Task T-shirt

Trousers

Underwear

…

Makin

Jackets

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Business functions in practice

• Occupation groups within sectors are used as proxies– Occupation classification: 3 digit ISCO– Sector classification: 2 digit NACE

• For 10 sectors, we linked 502 combinations of ISCO and NACE to a business function (more than 90% of workforce in each country)

• For high qualification occupations, it was not possible to distinguish functions

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Business Functions

• Level 1: position of the job– Core– Administration (non core)– Support (non core)

• Level 2: nature of the job, qualification level – Professional level

• Management• Experts

– Operational level• Clerks• Technical work• Service work• Sales• Transport & logistics

• Level 1 & 2 can be combined (see scheme)

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Level 2

Level 1

Non core

Business Functions (ISCO 3 digit)

Administration

Core

Support

ProfessionalOperational

Sales

Clerks

Transport & logistics

Management

Experts

Service operationalTechnics

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Example: construction

Administration Core Support

Sales

Clerks

Transport & logistics

Management

ExpertsServices

TechnicsLevel 1

Level 2

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Example: wholesale trade

Administration Core SupportSales

Clerks Transport & logistics

Management

Experts

Services

TechnicsLevel 1

Level 2

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Exercises

• Manufacturing of metal products:– 412 Numerical clercks– 913 domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers– 832 Motor vehicle drivers

• Construction:– 214 Architects, engineers and related professionals– 742 wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trade workers– 341 finance and sales associated professionals

• Wholesale trade and commission trade– 110 legislators and senior officials– 832 motor vehicle drivers– 933 transport labourers and freight handlers– 722 blacksmith, toolmakers and related trade workers

• Hotels and restaurants– 422 client information clercks– 741 food processing and related trade workers– 913 domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers

ConstructionBusiness function OccupationAdministration, clerks 343 Administrative associate professionals

410 Office clerks411 Secretaries and keyboard-operating clerks412 Numerical clerks419 Other office clerks

Administration, management

121 Directors and chief executives122 Production and operations managers123 Other specialist managers130 Managers of small enterprises131 Managers of small enterprises241 Business professionals244 Social science and related professionals

Core, experts 214 Architects, engineers and related professionals311 Physical and engineering science technicians;

Core, technical 611 Market gardeners and crop growers712 Building frame and related trades workers713 Building finishers and related trades workers714 Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers721 Metal moulders, welders, sheet-metal workers, structural-metal preparers, and related trades workers722 Blacksmiths, tool-makers and related trades workers723 Machinery mechanics and fitters724 Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters742 Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers828 Assemblers833 Agricultural and other mobile plant operators931 Mining and construction labourers932 Manufacturing labourers

Support, sales 341 Finance and sales associate professionals;Support, service operational

913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers

Support, transport & logistics

413 Material-recording and transport clerks832 Motor vehicle drivers933 Transport labourers and freight handlers

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Hotels & restaurantsBusiness function OccupationAdministration, clerks 343 Administrative associate professionals

412 Numerical clerks419 Other office clerks

Administration, management

121 Directors and chief executives122 Production and operations managers123 Other specialist managers131 Managers of small enterprises241 Business professionals244 Social science and related professionals341 Finance and sales associate professionals

Core, sales 422 Client information clerks522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators

Core, service operational

347 Artistic, entertainment and sports associate professionals512 Housekeeping and restaurant services workers513 Personal care and related workers514 Other personal services workers741 Food processing and related trades workers911 Street vendors and related workers913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers

Core, experts 342 Business services agents and trade brokers346 Social work associate professionals

Support, sales 421 Cashiers, tellers and related clerks, service operational516 Protective services workers,

Support, technical 712 Building frame and related trades workers713 Building finishers and related trades workers723 Machinery mechanics and fitters724 Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters931 Mining and construction labourers

Support, transport & logistics

413 Material-recording and transport clerks832 Motor vehicle drivers

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Business function OccupationAdministration, clerks 343 Administrative associate professionals

344 Customs, tax and related government associate professionals410 Office clerks411 Secretaries and keyboard-operating clerks412 Numerical clerks414 Library, mail and related clerks419 Other office clerks422 Client information clerks

Administration, management 121 Directors and chief executives122 Production and operations managers123 Other specialist managers131 Managers of small enterprises241 Business professionals

Core, service operational 332 Pre-primary education teaching associate professionals512 Housekeeping and restaurant services workers513 Personal care and related workers514 Other personal services workers913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers

Core, experts 211 Physicists, chemists and related professionals221 Life science professionals222 Health professionals (except nursing)223 Nursing and midwifery professionals233 Primary and pre-primary education teaching professionals235 Other teaching professionals244 Social science and related professionals247 Public service administrative professionals311 Physical and engineering science technicians313 Optical and electronic equipment operators321 Life science technicians and related associate professional322 Health associate professionals (except nursing)323 Nursing and midwifery associate professionals330 Teaching associate professionals331 Primary education teaching associate professionals333 Special education teaching associate professionals334 Other teaching associate professionals346 Social work associate professionals

Support, service operational 914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers

Support, technical 710 Extraction and building trades workers712 Building frame and related trades workers713 Building finishers and related trades workers723 Machinery mechanics and fitters743 Textile, garment and related trades workers826 Textile-, fur- and leather-products machine operators931 Mining and construction labourers932 Manufacturing labourers

Support, transport & logistics 413 Material-recording and transport clerks832 Motor vehicle drivers

Health & social work

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L1 Sector comparison (2007)

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Conclusion

• Sectoral diversity of business function compositions• Level 1

– The core (almost) always stands out– Large core: health and social work, construction– Large administration: e.g. wholesale, real estate– Large support: recycling, travel agencies

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L2 Sector comparison (2007)

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Conclusion

• Also the variety in differentiation of business functions with respect to qualification levels is high

• Level 2– Big differentiation of business functions: wholesale, travel

agencies, recycling, real estate,– Small differentiation: manufacturing, construction, hotels and

restaurants, computer and related, R&D– Clear profiles because of a prominent business function:

• Technical profile: metal products, construction, • Specialist profile: R&D, IT, • Service profile (operational): hotels & restaurants, real estate• Sales profile: wholesale, travel agencies

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The business function approach

• Business function is a lower level than the sector and a higher level than the individual job

• The business function is where the decisions hit• Attention for dynamics

– Administration: bureaucratization– Professionalization– Core: specialisation– Support: outsourcing, in-housing

• Structuralist approach: the structure of a sector has an effect on the meaning of a job. For example:– More management enhanced productivity of blue collar work– More core technical work higher workload for transport & distribution– More experts, less technical work only prototyping in-house

• Study of the growth of business functions

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Growth of business functions

• How “new” are jobs when employment grows within sectors– Emergence of new sectors: e.g. recycling– Changes within existing sectors

• Changes in task content eg. related to technological developments in products and processes (e.g. precision instruments): not easily observable

• Changes (growth or decline) in the relative shares of the business functions within a growing employment of the sector eg. because of processes of outsourcing and insourcing or change in the core function of companies

• Graphs– Level 1: changes in the differentiation between core - support -

administration– Level 2: changes in the differentiation between professional -

operational

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L1 Evolution (2000-2007)

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L2 Evolution (2000-2007)

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Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment

Core specialists

214 Architects, engineers and related professionals311 Physical and engineering science technicians312 Computer associate professionals

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Hotels and restaurantsCore sales

422 Client information clerks522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators

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Computer and related activitiesSupport sales341 Finance and sales associate professionals342 Business services agents and trade brokers522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators

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Health and social workStatus quo

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Conclusion

• No dramatic changes• As a general trend

– Cores seem to shrink– More core experts: e.g. metal products manufacturing

• Bureaucratization– Hotels & restaurants– Computer and related activities– R&D

• Commercialization (sales) :– As support function in computer and related activities– As core function in hotels and restaurants

• But these are averages !• There is variation in growth

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Patterns of growth: methodology

• Looking for different configurations– Of business function growth– For every sector separately– Over all countries

• Explorative method– Cluster analysis– Ward’s linkage:

• minimizes within group variation, • clear groups• Outlier sensitive (!)

– Discriminant analysis

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Patterns of growth: methodology

• Issue– Missing values: LFS treshold– Non existent BF– No data for sector, country (e.g. Poland)– No growth

• Solution: 5 criteria, by sector1. Only sectors with structural growth

2. Only countries with structural growth for the sector

3. At least 80% of employment should be covered by the business functions in both years (90% in 2007)

4. Only countries for which the amount of business functions is at least half of the maximum amount of business functions found in the sector

5. Only business function for which at most 1/3th of countries have a missing or zero value

• The few missing values left are set to 0 (no change)

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Patterns of growth: construction

1. BEBureaucratization & professionalization

2. FI, LTProfessionalization: + Managers; + Experts

3. CY, DK, ROBureaucratization+ Administration; + Logistics

4. EEEmphasizing logistics

5. ES, IE, UK, GR, HU, SE, FR, NL Modernizing- Bureaucracy; + Experts

6. IT, LV, NO, SIOperationalizing:+ Sales; + Logistics; + Technical work

7. BG, SKSimplification++ Technics

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Patterns of growth: hotels & restaurants

1. AT+ Management; - Core services; - Support technical

2. ITSame as (2), but more extreme

3. BE, ES, GR, SE, SK, SI, BGSimplicifation- Management; + Core services; + Support technical

4. DESame as (3), but more extreme

5. DK, PT, CZ, HU, NLBigger support- Core sales; + Support sales

6. UK+ Management; - Core services

7. RO- Clerks; + Core sales

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Patterns of growth: retail

1. AT, ES, SK, GR, LT, ITSome bureaucratization- Experts; + Clerks

2. BG, PT, LU+Experts; -Clerks, -Support

3. BE, SE, ROExpansion+ Management; - Clerks; + Support technics

4. DK, LVNiche-business- Clerks; - Core logistics; + Experts

5. EE, MTSubsector effect: large distribution + Clerks; + Logistics; - Experts

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Patterns of growth: health & social work

1. AT, UK, CZ, HU, IE, ITSimplification- Experts; + Service work

2. BE, DE, NL, NO, ES, SI, FR, PT, CY, RO, DK, GR, LUProfessionalization+ Experts; - Service work

3. FISimplification- Bureaucratization; ++ Service work

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Patterns of growth: IT

1. AT, BG, PT, CY, SK, HU, LVLagging+Administration, - Experts

2. LU, ROInitiating+Management, -Clerks, +Experts

3. BE, NL, NO, DE, FI, SE, ES, UKMaturing-Management, +Clerck, +Sales

4. CZ, FR, ITFlexibilization-Management, +Experts, +Sales

5. SI-Management, +Clercks, -Sales

6. GR+Management, +Clercks, +Sales

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Patterns of growth: conclusion

• Different patterns– Within sectors

(A: 1 2 3 4)– No consistence of patterns between sectors

(A: 1 2 3 4) (B: 2 5 6 7 8)

• Measuring change, not state: change may have occured earlier

• Country trends– Convergence: maybe– Different evolutions: certainly– No traditional patterns (CME-LME, Esping-Anderson,

geography teacher)

67

BETTER JOBS

Critical spots in growing business functions

Patterns of growth and changing quality of work in the EU

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Critical spots in growing business functions

• Core question: what is the quality of work of BF/occupational groups where growth in employment is observed?

• Steps:– Identify business functions/occupational groups that

• (a) increased AND • (b1) have less permanent contracts OR• (b2) have less fulltime jobs

– In what sectors does this trend occur– (In what countries do these sectors show this trend)

69

Temporary work: business functions

11 adm.- management23 core experts25 core – service26 core – sales36 support sales

24 core technical33 support experts

70

Temporary work: sectors

71

Temporary work: sectors

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Temporary work: conclusions

• Some business functions have above average growth in employment and less permanent contracts:– Administrative: management– Core: professionals, sales, services– Support: sales

• The trends can mainly be observed in a limited number of sectors:– In hotels and restaurants for all 5– in sectors where service is the core function (hotels, travel, health),

the growth of this function is above average in temporary jobs– in sectors where sales is the core (wholesale, hotels, real estate)

the growth of this function is above average in temporary jobs– Growth of administrative management functions is more in

temporary contracts in a lot of sectors

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Parttime work: business functions

12 adm clercks25 core services26 core sales36 support sales37 support transport & logistics

11 adm management23 core professional33 Support professional

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Parttime work: sectors

75

Parttime work: sectors

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Parttime work: conclusions

• Some business functions combine above average growth in employment AND less fulltime contracts:– Administrative: clerks– Core: sales, services– Support: sales, transport & logistics

• More sectors are involved in the case of growth within part-time work segment than in het case of temporary contracts:– Administrative clerks: a wide range of sectors– For core sales and core service functions, again: growth in

these core functions is based on parttime work (Hotels, Travel, Health, Real Estate)

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Critical spots: conclusions

• Growth and precariousness go hand in hand for (work in progress):– Hotels and Restaurant (but also Real Estate, Travel Agencies,

Wholesale)– Support functions in knowledge-intensive sectors– ‘Traditional’ blue collar sectors obviously absent in these quadrants!– Core sales and core service in sectors where these functions

dominate– Administrative functions

• Managers > temporary contracts• Clerks > parttime

• There are definitly a lot of trends and changes at the lower level than the sector to be further investigated

• Patterns of growth

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Patterns of growth and changing quality of work

• Longitudinal effect• Rarely documented (“minor”)

– Indirect measurment: indicator becomes unit– Generalizations– “Little Europe”

• Yet as salient as ever– Classic hypothesis: Entsauberung, alienation, estrangement,

degradation of work, ultimate stupidity, …– Research today: skill needs, technological change, non manual

routine work, …

• Explorative research– Patterns of job growth– Patterns of QOW changes– Cross tabulated (no statistical tests!)

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Cross table: construction

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9

1 BE

2 FI LT

3 RO DK CY

4 EE

5 FRHUIENLUK

6 SE GR

7 SK BG

• BF growth cluster 5:Modernizing- Bureaucracy;+ Experts

• QOW cluster 1:More temporary contracts for expertsLess temporary contracts for core technics(not really significant)

80

Cross table: health & social work

1 2 3 4 5 9

1 ATCZHUITUK

IE

2 BEDKNLNO

GRRO

SI ESPT

FR CYLU

3 FI

• BF growth cluster 1:Simplification- Experts; + Service work

• BF growth cluster 2:Professionalization+ Experts; - Service work

• QOW cluster 1:“no change in QOW”

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Cross table: IT

1 2 3 9

1 AT HU BGCYLVPTSK

2 LURO

3 ES BEUK

DENLSE

FINO

4 CZ FRIT

5 SI

6 GR

• BF growth cluster 3:Maturing- Management+ Clerck+ Sales

• BF growth cluster 4:Flexibilization- Management+ Experts+ Sales

• QOW cluster 2:More temp. contracts for experts, less in the core technical function

• QOW cluster 3:More temporary contracts for experts and core technical functions

• General picture: – Less management, more sales, and more

temporary contracts for the executing functions

– Not so much difference in QOW between groups (low significance)

82

Cross table: hotels & restaurants

1 2 3 4 5 9

1 AT

2 IT

3 SE SI GR SP BE SK

4 DE

5 PT CZ DKHU

BG

6 NL UK

7 RO

• BF growth cluster 3:– Simplicifation– - Management;– + Core services;– + Support technical

• BF growth cluster 5:– Bigger support– - Core sales;– + Support sales

• QOW cluster 2:– More temp. contracts for services, less

(improvement) for managers and core and support sales

• QOW cluster 3:– More temp contracts for core services

and core sales, less for managers

• QOW cluster 4:– As cluster 2, but clearer

• General picture– Not much improvement for those who

need it

83

Cross table: retail

1 2 3 4 5 9

1 ATGRLT

ES IT SK

2 LU PT BG

3 SE RO BE

4 DK LV

5 EEMT

• BF growth cluster 1– Some bureaucratization– - Experts;– + Clerks

• QOW cluster 1– Less temporary contracts

for core logistics and clerks– More temporary contracts

for managers and support services

• QOW cluster 3– The same, but even

stronger

84

Conclusions

• Patterns of growth are present and clear• Changing quality of work is much more uncertain• Some dominant patterns occur for each indicator• But there is ample idiosyncracy regarding the relation

between growth and quality• Classic typologies of European states are inadequate• There is not “one wind” in Europe• But we’d like to have more indicators, reliable data, a

little less privacy

85

Thank you