Post on 02-Dec-2014
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MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomy
Ryan W. Herzog, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Economics
May 26, 2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
1 Economic Overview
2 Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
3 Banking Sector
4 Future Course of Monetary Policy
5 Spokane and Surrounding Areas
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble(ii) Increased inflation
(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble(ii) Increased inflation
(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble(ii) Increased inflation
(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble
(ii) Increased inflation(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble(ii) Increased inflation
(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy
Monetary policy (i.e. changing short-term and long-terminterest rates) has been the primary mechanism foreconomic stimulus over the last five years.
Increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy has putmore of the burden on monetary policy.
There is only so much monetary policy can do beforecreating perverse incentives:
(i) Stock bubble(ii) Increased inflation(iii) Increased inequality
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Economic Growth from 1980 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
RGDP and Potential, 1980 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Unemployment Rate, 1980 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Long-term unemployed, 1980 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Change in employment, 1980 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Changes in inflation, 1990 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Nonfarm Productivity and Real Compensation,1990 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Quantitative Easing I
November 25th 2008, Fed announced they will purchase$600 billion in agency debt and mortgage backed securities(QE1). March 19th 2009, Fed announced they areextending the program by purchasing an additional $800billion in securities.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Quantitative Easing II
November 3rd 2010, Fed announced a new purchaseprogram of $600 billion ($75 billion per month) (QE2).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Operation Twist
In September of 2011 the Federal Reserve announcedOperation Twist. They purchased $400 billion of bondswith maturities of 6 to 30 years and to sell bonds withmaturities less than 3 years. The goal is to extend theaverage maturity of the Fed’s own portfolio withoutincreasing the overall amount of money in circulation.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Quantitative Easing III
September 13, 2012, Fed announced a new $40 billion amonth, open ended, bond purchasing program of agencymortgage backed securities. They also announced tocontinue extreme low rates until at least mid-2015.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Short-term interest Rates, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Long-term interest Rates, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Federal Reserve Bank Credit, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest Rate Risk
With low long-term interest rates, financial institutionshave shifted portfolios into more liquid assets.
The Fed is assuming a large amount of interest rate risk,an increase in interest rates will cause long-term debt toexperience larger losses.
Given the concerns over future possible losses will the Fedbe quick to raise interest rates (under projections of futureinflation)?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest Rate Risk
With low long-term interest rates, financial institutionshave shifted portfolios into more liquid assets.
The Fed is assuming a large amount of interest rate risk,an increase in interest rates will cause long-term debt toexperience larger losses.
Given the concerns over future possible losses will the Fedbe quick to raise interest rates (under projections of futureinflation)?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest Rate Risk
With low long-term interest rates, financial institutionshave shifted portfolios into more liquid assets.
The Fed is assuming a large amount of interest rate risk,an increase in interest rates will cause long-term debt toexperience larger losses.
Given the concerns over future possible losses will the Fedbe quick to raise interest rates (under projections of futureinflation)?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Average government maturities holdings,1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Average MBS maturities holdings, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
The Effects of QE
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Housing Starts and Case/Shiller Housing PriceIndex, 1990 through 2013Q1
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy on Stock and Bond Markets
Are we seeing an stock bubble due to the low interest rateenvironment?
Are investors increasing their risk appetite?
Are corporations issuing more high yield debt?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy on Stock and Bond Markets
Are we seeing an stock bubble due to the low interest rateenvironment?
Are investors increasing their risk appetite?
Are corporations issuing more high yield debt?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Policy on Stock and Bond Markets
Are we seeing an stock bubble due to the low interest rateenvironment?
Are investors increasing their risk appetite?
Are corporations issuing more high yield debt?
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Stock Indicators, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
P/E Ratio 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Term Premium, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Risk Premium, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
US Bond Issuance, 1996-2012 (SIFMA)
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest on Required and Excess Reserves
Starting October 1st, 2008 the Federal Reserve elected topay interest on reserves.
Banks long argued that forcing banks into holding reservesacted like a tax.
They also claimed they would hold sufficient reserves tomeet customer demands.
Today the Federal Reserve is paying 0.25% on all reserveholdings.
This has resulted in large amounts of excess reserves.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest on Required and Excess Reserves
Starting October 1st, 2008 the Federal Reserve elected topay interest on reserves.
Banks long argued that forcing banks into holding reservesacted like a tax.
They also claimed they would hold sufficient reserves tomeet customer demands.
Today the Federal Reserve is paying 0.25% on all reserveholdings.
This has resulted in large amounts of excess reserves.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest on Required and Excess Reserves
Starting October 1st, 2008 the Federal Reserve elected topay interest on reserves.
Banks long argued that forcing banks into holding reservesacted like a tax.
They also claimed they would hold sufficient reserves tomeet customer demands.
Today the Federal Reserve is paying 0.25% on all reserveholdings.
This has resulted in large amounts of excess reserves.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest on Required and Excess Reserves
Starting October 1st, 2008 the Federal Reserve elected topay interest on reserves.
Banks long argued that forcing banks into holding reservesacted like a tax.
They also claimed they would hold sufficient reserves tomeet customer demands.
Today the Federal Reserve is paying 0.25% on all reserveholdings.
This has resulted in large amounts of excess reserves.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Interest on Required and Excess Reserves
Starting October 1st, 2008 the Federal Reserve elected topay interest on reserves.
Banks long argued that forcing banks into holding reservesacted like a tax.
They also claimed they would hold sufficient reserves tomeet customer demands.
Today the Federal Reserve is paying 0.25% on all reserveholdings.
This has resulted in large amounts of excess reserves.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Change in Monetary Aggregates, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Monetary Base, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Reserves, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
The link between money and inflation
Does a radical increase in the monetary base or moneysupply create higher inflation?
Perhaps.
Despite food price shocks and high oil prices inflation rateshave remained low.
Inflation has probably remained lower then the Fed wouldlike.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
The link between money and inflation
Does a radical increase in the monetary base or moneysupply create higher inflation?
Perhaps.
Despite food price shocks and high oil prices inflation rateshave remained low.
Inflation has probably remained lower then the Fed wouldlike.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
The link between money and inflation
Does a radical increase in the monetary base or moneysupply create higher inflation?
Perhaps.
Despite food price shocks and high oil prices inflation rateshave remained low.
Inflation has probably remained lower then the Fed wouldlike.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
The link between money and inflation
Does a radical increase in the monetary base or moneysupply create higher inflation?
Perhaps.
Despite food price shocks and high oil prices inflation rateshave remained low.
Inflation has probably remained lower then the Fed wouldlike.
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Inflationary Expectations
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Banking Activity
Lending
Capital/leverage rates
Liquidity
Net Loans and Leases
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Banking Activity
Lending
Capital/leverage rates
Liquidity
Net Loans and Leases
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Banking Activity
Lending
Capital/leverage rates
Liquidity
Net Loans and Leases
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Banking Activity
Lending
Capital/leverage rates
Liquidity
Net Loans and Leases
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Lending, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Liquidity, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Short-term investments, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Net loans and leases, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Investment securities, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Capital
“Well Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 10%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greater than6 percent.
“Adequately Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to orgreater than 8%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 4%.
“Undercapitalized.” Neither Well Capitalized norAdequately Capitalized.
Under Doff-Frank each bank is required to have a totalRBC ratio of 8% and a tier 1 RBC ratio of 4%.
Under Basel III tier 1 RBC ratio increases to 4.5% in 2014and eventually 6% by 2016 (with a 4.5% common equitytier 1 capital ratio).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Capital
“Well Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 10%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greater than6 percent.
“Adequately Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to orgreater than 8%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 4%.
“Undercapitalized.” Neither Well Capitalized norAdequately Capitalized.
Under Doff-Frank each bank is required to have a totalRBC ratio of 8% and a tier 1 RBC ratio of 4%.
Under Basel III tier 1 RBC ratio increases to 4.5% in 2014and eventually 6% by 2016 (with a 4.5% common equitytier 1 capital ratio).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Capital
“Well Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 10%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greater than6 percent.
“Adequately Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to orgreater than 8%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 4%.
“Undercapitalized.” Neither Well Capitalized norAdequately Capitalized.
Under Doff-Frank each bank is required to have a totalRBC ratio of 8% and a tier 1 RBC ratio of 4%.
Under Basel III tier 1 RBC ratio increases to 4.5% in 2014and eventually 6% by 2016 (with a 4.5% common equitytier 1 capital ratio).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Capital
“Well Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 10%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greater than6 percent.
“Adequately Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to orgreater than 8%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 4%.
“Undercapitalized.” Neither Well Capitalized norAdequately Capitalized.
Under Doff-Frank each bank is required to have a totalRBC ratio of 8% and a tier 1 RBC ratio of 4%.
Under Basel III tier 1 RBC ratio increases to 4.5% in 2014and eventually 6% by 2016 (with a 4.5% common equitytier 1 capital ratio).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Bank Capital
“Well Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 10%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greater than6 percent.
“Adequately Capitalized.” Total RBC Ratio equal to orgreater than 8%, and Tier 1 RBC Ratio equal to or greaterthan 4%.
“Undercapitalized.” Neither Well Capitalized norAdequately Capitalized.
Under Doff-Frank each bank is required to have a totalRBC ratio of 8% and a tier 1 RBC ratio of 4%.
Under Basel III tier 1 RBC ratio increases to 4.5% in 2014and eventually 6% by 2016 (with a 4.5% common equitytier 1 capital ratio).
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Basel III, capital requirements
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Tier 1 RBC, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Total RBC, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Return on Average Equity, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Return on Average Assets, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Tier 1 RLeverage Ratio, 1998-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Future Course of Monetary Policy
Future growth rates
Expected inflation
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Future Course of Monetary Policy
Future growth rates
Expected inflation
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Federal Reserve key projections
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Federal Reserve interest rate projections
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Zillow Home Price Index
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Foreclosure Rates (Pacific NW)
Foreclosure Rates (First Lien)
City Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Mar-10
Spokane 3.9 3.6 2.9 2.75 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.4Seattle/Tac. 4.9 4.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 4.2 4.1 4 3.7 3.1 2.8
Portland/Van. 5.1 5 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.7 3.7 3.5 3.4Yakima 5.2 4.9 4.3 3.9 4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.5Olympia 4.5 4.1 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.4
Wenatchee 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2 1.8Tri Cities 2.7 2.75 2.1 1.9 1.8 4.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2 1.9
Coeur d’Alene 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 4 3.8 3.8 3.5Lewiston, ID 3.6 3.4 3 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.75 2.1 2.2
Serious Delinquency Rates (First Lien)
City Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Mar-10
Spokane 8.2 8 7.6 7.4 7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1Seattle/Tac. 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.2 8 7.9 7.7
Portland/Van. 7.9 8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.4 6.9 7.1 7.3Yakima 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.5Olympia 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.5 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6
Wenatchee 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.3 5 4.9 4.8Tri Cities 5.2 5 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9
Coeur d’Alene 7 7 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.3 6.9 7.1Lewiston, ID 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.9 5 4.7 5.3
*Source www.foreclosure-response.org (Center for Housing Policy)
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Unemployment City/State/Nation
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Employment by Major Industry, Spokane
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Personal Income (per capita), 1990-2012
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Leading Index - Pacific NW, 1990-2013
MonetaryPolicy
Ryan W.Herzog
Outline
Economy
FinancialMarkets
BankingSector
Future
LocalEconomy
Local Company Stock Prices
Company 1-Year %∆ 5-Year %∆ Company 1-Year %∆ 5-Year %∆
Russell 2000 10.11% 20.34% S&P 500 10.79% 11.97%Key Tronic 0.96% 216.27% Sterling Fin. 6.3%Northwest Bancorp 14% -57.78% Itron -6.78% -52.76%CdA Mines -31.18% -59.77% WTB Fin. 12.43% 10.5%Hecla Mining -8.4% -51.32% Clearwater Paper 31.82% 316.09%Potlach 44.51% Avista 4.59% 36.72%Coldwater Creek -12.13% -17.81% Intermnt Bank 17.39% (YTD)Red Lion -6.47% -9.85%
*Prices as of 2/27/2013