Post on 22-Jan-2017
With L. Wollenberg, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold, P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O. Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C. Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T. Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T. Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell
Meryl Richards CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Mitigation from agriculture: What are fair, ambitious targets?
18 May 2016 SBSTA 44, Bonn
Meeting the 2°C goal requires mitigation from agriculture
Baseline emissions
van Vuuren et al. 2011
Emissions under the 2°C scenario
Countries are planning action in agriculture
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
Em
issi
ons
from
agr
icul
ture
(GtC
O2e
/yr)
Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6-8 Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents per year by 2030
This requires mitigation of
1 Gigatonne per year
based on our current trajectory.
The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit
Baseline
2°C scenario
van Vuuren et al. 2011
What does this mean at the country level?
Mitigation of 1
Gigatonne per year
?
??
?
?
?
?
??
Allocating the target based on cumulative agricultural emissions
• Cumulative historical agricultural emissions 1990-2010 • Capability to mitigate ➕ Gross domestic product (GDP) ➕ Human development index (HDI)
• Equal per-capita emissions in 2030
Cumulative agricultural emissions 1990-2010
14 12
9 8 7
3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
12
21
0
5
10
15
20
Gig
aton
nes
CO
2e
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Gig
aton
nes
CO
2e
136 Mt 17%
118 Mt 30%
90 Mt 22%
76 Mt 15%
74 Mt 13%
11 Mt 10%
13 Mt 7%
11 Mt 15%
0
200
400
600
800
China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia
Mt C
O2e
Mitigation targets using cumulative agricultural emissions 1990-2010
Mitigation targets using equal per-capita emissions in 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
China India EU Brazil USA Vietnam Ethiopia Colombia
2030
em
issi
ons
(Mt C
O2e
)
Baseline
2 degree scenario
27% ↑ 178% ↑
8% ↓
67% ↓
30% ↓ 46% ↓
49% ↓
55% ↓
Conclusions
• ~1 Gt CO2e mitigation needed in 2030 • Most feasible if all countries participate
• Can we meet the target? § What is possible at the country level? § At what cost? § Compatibility with food security?
With L. Wollenberg, P. Smith, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, F.N. Tubiello, M. Herold, P. Gerber, S. Carter, A. Reisinger, D. van Vuuren, A. Dickie, H. Neufeldt, B.O. Sander, R. Wassmann, R. Sommer, J.E. Amonette, A. Falcucci, M. Herrero, C. Opio, R. Roman-Cuesta, E. Stehfest, H. Westhoek, I. Ortiz-Monasterio, T. Sapkota, M.C. Rufino, P.K. Thornton, L. Verchot, P.C. West, J.-F. Soussana, T. Baedeker, M. Sadler, S. Vermeulen, B.M. Campbell
Meryl Richards: meryl.richards@uvm.edu CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Thank you!
18 May 2016 SBSTA 44, Bonn