Post on 15-Jan-2017
ASC 2016 09/09/2016 – Winchester (UK)
Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement
MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES
MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDIN THE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN
The Challenge of Community Viability
#minorityreport
>50%OF ONLINE COMMUNITIES
FAIL TO GENERATE
SUCCESFUL OUTCOMES
(Sarner, 2008)
Member Disengagement as Viability Challenger
1
2
Low participation quantity
Low participation quality
Low participation in community topics
Posts that contain insufficient argumentation
#minorityreport
How to reduce member disengagement?
Reputation mechanism?
Content authoring?
#minorityreport
REACTIVE
SUBJECTIVE
TIME/COST INEFFICIENT
How to reduce member disengagement?
Reputation mechanism?
Content authoring?
#minorityreport
REACTIVE
SUBJECTIVE
TIME/COST INEFFICIENT
Better approach?
PROACTIVE
OBJECTIVE
TIME/COST EFFICIENT
I LEARN THE 4 PRINCIPLES
OF Proactive CommunityManagement
III
II
IV
To reduce member disengagement effectively ….
#minorityreport
Murder! Murder!
“What’s coming?
Double homicide:
one male, one
female. Killer's
male, white, 40's.”
“I'm placing
you under
arrest for the
future murder
of Sarah
Marks”
“The future can be seen”
I - PREDICTION
#minorityreport
Predictive analytics
I - PREDICTION
Untapped potential of research communities
Prediction model for member disengagement
I - PREDICTION
1. %
2. Risk indicator
3. Proactive alarm system
Output
#minorityreport
I - PREDICTIONI - PREDICTION
QUANTITY
QU
ALIT
Y
Low High
Low
High
#minorityreport
Community Stars
Passivists
High-Potentials
Annoyers
1
2
TIP! Integrate predictions in community
management support system
I - PREDICTIONQ
UA
LIT
Y
QUANTITY
I - PREDICTION
Low High
Low
High
#minorityreport
87%
32%
81%
20%
27%
79%
32%
85%
12%
91%86%
93%
91%
94%
11%
13%
9%
22%
17%
14%19%
11%
94%
17%
Low quantity risk
Low quality risk
TIP! Integrate predictions in community
management support system
1
2
94%
17%
“We see what they see”
II - DETECTION
“All we have to
run on are the
images that they
produce”
can be seen
“We see what they see”
#minorityreport
II - DETECTION
AugJul Sep Oct Nov
II - DETECTION
Pattern recognition
Pursue
Constructivity
Less recent, less
frequent & shorter
posts = lower-
level members
Big size breeds
big problems
Allow swearing,
but avoid raging
anger
1 2 3 4
#minorityreport
TIPS!
Sentiment & member activity analysis
Past Future
Performance explanation
“The system can’t be wrong”
III - PRECISION
“There hasn't been a murder in
six years. There's nothing
wrong with the system. It's
perfect.”
“Flaws.
You ever get any
false positives?”
“Tell me exactly
what it is you're
looking for?”
#minorityreport
“100% predictive accuracy is not possible”
I - PREDICTIONIII - PRECISION
“Successful implementation requires more than adequate predictive ability”
#minorityreport
50% 100%
78%71%
Good
….
Bad
Low
Quant
Low
Qual
ComprehensibilityJustifiability
Predictive Accuracy
TIP!Make a trade-off decision
for succesful adoption
(Martens et al, 2008)
Random
Choice
“Murder can be stopped”
IV - PREVENTION
“We are arresting
individuals who've broken
no law, but they will.”
“The fact that you prevented
it from happening doesn't
change the fact that it was
going to happen.”
#minorityreport
I - PREDICTIONIV - PREVENTION
Three-stage approach
prediction model
frameworkCRM info
prevention suggestion
1 2
QU
AL
ITY
QUANTITY
Low
High
Low High
#minorityreport
TIP!
HUMANMACHINE
identify contextualize finalize
MACHINE
interpretation
action
3
!
Prevention campaign
PERSONALIZATION = KEY
GO!
THEREFORE, USE THE 4 PRINCIPLES
OF Proactive CommunityManagement
Conclusion & takeaways
DETECTION
PREVENTIONPRECISION
PREDICTION
I II
III IV
#minorityreport
Member disengagement jeopardizes community viability & must be battled effectively*….
* proactive – objective – time/cost efficient