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Military-to-military relations in the Arctic: Building confidence in a changing region Kristofer Bergh, SIPRI

Wroclaw

23 November 2012

BSIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

07/11/11

2007

Borders and shelfs

- Hans Island

- North West Passage

- Overlapping claims

Incidents at sea

- Russian trawlers in Barents sea

Increased military capabilities

- may cause concern

Possible sources of tension

USACanada

NorwayDenmarkIceland

SwedenFinland

Russia

NATO

NORAD NORDEFCO

PfP, CHOD, ASFR

International military co-op in the Arctic

NATO

Canada unwilling to engage

Norway positive

US to gain

Russia suspicious

North Atlantic Cooperation

NORAD

”Special relationship”

USNORTHCOM

North American Cooperation

Stoltenberg Report, 2009

Declaration of solidarity, 2011

NORDEFCO

Russia suspicious

Nordic Cooperation

Arctic Chief of Defence meeting

– Arctic 8

– High level

Arctic Security Forces Roundtable

- Arctic 8+

- Low level Russian engagement

Circumpolar Cooperation

Race for resources

– Most resources lie within internationally established boundaries

Arctic land grab

– UNCLOS

– Ilulissat

Arctic arms race

- CHOD, ASFR

Incidents at sea

Building confidence

Kristofer BerghStockholm International Peace Research

Institute

bergh@sipri.org

Thank you! Questions?