Post on 12-Oct-2020
Midwest Ozone Group Discussion on Good Neighbor SIP’s
Rob Kaleel Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium October 24, 2014
Background ◦ Model: CAMx V6.10 ◦ Modeling Period: June 17 to Sept 26 ◦ Meteorology: EPA 2011 (version II) ◦ Emissions: EPA 2011 & 2018 (version I) Canada and Mexico emissions from 2008 NEI
EPA 2018: IPM, Tier 3 NPRM (not MOVES2014), State/Federal On-the-books
Scenarios ◦ 2018 Attainment Test IPM (CAIR)
ERTAC (version 2.2) - On-the-Books
Model Sensitivity - 0.10 lb/mmbtu “emissions cap” for EGU’s w/ SCR’s
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
2002 2005 2008 2011 2018
NONROAD
NONEGU
Highway
EGU
Area
NOx
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
2002 2005 2008 2011 2018
VOC SO2
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
2002 2005 2008 2011 2018
Emission Trends and Projections
2002-2011 emissions from NEI; 2018 emissions from EPA Modeling Platform
ERTAC IPM
Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit
Future year growth rate by region and fuel type
Future unit utilization based on historic (base year) activity
• Future emission rate based on historic (base year) emission rate (absent new controls or new emission limits)
Starting point: Base Year CEM data by unit
Future year growth rate based on generation nationally; regional growth and fuel use based on cost model
Future unit utilization based on cost model
Future emission rate projected based on control type and fuel (actual and assumed)
ERTAC EPA (IPM)
75 ppb O3 threshold
75 ppb O3 threshold
IPM ERTAC2.2
75 ppb O3 threshold
75 ppb O3 threshold
IPM ERTAC2.2
75 ppb O3 threshold
75 ppb O3 threshold
IPM ERTAC2.2
SCR’s Exceeding 0.10 lb/mmbtu – ERTAC 2.2 (2011 base projected to 2018)
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.125
0.15
0.175
0.2
0.225
0.25
0.275
0.3
0.325
0.35
0.375
0.4
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
State A - SCR Fleet Composite - Summer Daily
Operations - 2011-2014 May- Sept 2011-2013, May-June 2014
NOx (tons) Tons @ 0.075 NOx Rate
Daily Tons NOx
Daily Tons NOx
Lbs NOx /mmbtu
0
0.025
0.05
0.075
0.1
0.125
0.15
0.175
0.2
0.225
0.25
0.275
0.3
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
State B - SCR Fleet Composite - Summer Daily Operations -
2011-2014
May- Sept 2011-2013, May-June 2014
NOx (tons) Tons @ 0.075 NOx Rate Daily Tons NOx
Lbs NOx /mmbtu
Monitor IPM ERTAC2.2 ERTAC 2.2 SCR @0.10
Harford (Edgewood), MD 81.3 82.3 82
Babylon, NY 78.9 78.9 78.7
Westport, CT 78.5 78.6 78.5
Philadelphia, PA 77.3 77.2 76.9
Clarksboro, NJ 76.9 77 76.7
Sheboygan, WI 77.4 77.1 77
Louisville, KY 76 76.3 75.9
Cincinnati (Hamilton County), OH 76.6 76.4 76
West Alton, MO 76.3 75.3 75.3
Holland, MI 75.8 75.3 75.2
Detroit (East 7 Mile), MI 75.2 75.2 75
Columbus (New Albany), OH 75.1 75.1 74.9