Post on 01-Jan-2016
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Trends in the Michigan Economy:Presentation to the
Michigan Climate Action Committee
Steven R. Miller
October 30, 2009
Michigan Employment Growth by Industry March 2008 to March 2009
Michigan Rate of Employment ChangeMarch 2009/March 2008
1.5-1.0
-3.3-3.7-3.8
-6.0-6.4-6.6-6.9
-10.3-12.4
-16.3
-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0
Education & Health ServicesGovernment
Other ServicesLeisure & Hospitality
MiningFinancial Activities
TotalTrade Transportation & Utilities
InformationConstruction
Professional & Business ServicesManufacturing
Percent Change
Source: BLS, CES
Michigan Employment is Deepening in Rural Counties
Percent of State and Federal Non-Ag Employment in Non-Metropolitan Counties
0
5
10
15
20
25
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Per
cen
t
U.S.Michigan
Employment in Selected Sectors in Michigan: 1990, 2000,2008
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Farm
Durable Goods MFG
Ndurable Goods MFG
Trade, Transport, Utilities
Info, Finance, Real Est.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Ed. & Health Svcs.
Leisure & Hosp.
Gov.
1990
2000
2008
Michigan’s Employment Distribution Hardly Resembles the Nation
Employment in Selected Sectors in U.S: 1990, 2000,2008
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Farm
Durable Goods MFG
Ndurable Goods MFG
Trade, Transport, Utilities
Info, Finance, Real Est.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Ed. & Health Svcs.
Leisure & Hosp.
Gov.
1990
2000
2008
Source: BEA: REIS
Percent of Total Employment Engaged in Manufacturing, 2008
Percent of Employment in Manufacturing
1 - 6
7 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 31
State: 12
Source: BEA, REIS
We are Not Likely to See Michigan’s Employment Reach the 5 Million Mark in the
Foreseeable FutureU.S. and Michigan Employment Trends, 1976-2009
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Mic
hig
an E
mpl
oym
ent
(000
's)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t (0
00's
)
Michigan
United States
Source: BLS, Unemployment Statistics
Source: BLS, Unemployment Statistics
Unemployment Rates in Michigan and the United States, 1976-2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Per
cen
t
Michigan
United States
Michigan’s Never Experienced a Recovery from the 2001 Recession
Unemployment Rates Vary Across Counties
Legend
2008 Average Unemployment Rate
5.9 - 7.2
7.2 - 9.2
9.2 - 10.6
10.6 - 12.1
12.1 - 14.4
Source: BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Michigan’s Relative Income to the U.S. Declines by 0.3% per Year
Michigan Per-Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S., 1969-2007
y = -0.0029x + 1.0584
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Per
cent
Source: BEA, Annual Personal Income
Michigan is Relatively Manufacturing Intensive
Percent of W&S Employment in Manufacturing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Per
cen
t
U.S.
Michigan
Michigan’s Manufacturing Employment Moves in Lockstep With Motor Vehicle
Manufacturing EmploymentManufacturing and Motor Vehicles as a Percent of
Gross State Product for Michigan, 1963-2007
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Per
cen
t
Manufacturing
Motor Vehicle MFG
Source: BEA, REIS
Despite Shedding 250 Thousand Manufacturing Jobs, Michigan is Relatively
Dependent on Manufacturing
Source: BEA, REIS
Manufacturing as a Percent of Domestic Product for Michigan and the United States 1963-2007
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Per
cen
t
United States
Michigan
In Rural Counties, Michigan’s Manufacturing Employment Resembles
the U.S.Percent of Local Employment in Manufacturing for
Rural Counties, 1969-2007
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Year
Per
cen
t
U.S. Non-Metro
MI Non-Metro
Manufacturing Employment is Shifting to Rural Counties
Percent of State or Federal Manufacturing Employment in Rural Counties
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
Year
Per
cen
t
U.S. Non-Metro
MI Non-Metro
Michigan Electricity Prices are Consistent with U.S. Prices
Michigan and United States Electricity Rates by Use, 1990-2007
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Year
Ave
rage
Ret
ail P
rice
s (c
ents
/KW
h)
United States ResidentialMichigan ResidentialUnited States CommercialMichigan CommercialUnited States IndustrialMichigan Industrial
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA
Michigan Industrial Use Reflects Accelerated Declines in MFG Activity
Relative to the Nation
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, EIA
Growth in Retail Sales of Electricity in Michigan and United States by Use, 1990-2007
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Per
cen
t G
row
th f
rom
199
0
United States ResidentialUnited States CommercialUnited States IndustrialMichigan ResidentialMichigan CommercialMichigan Industrial
Michigan is Missing Population Growth in Key Age Groups
Michigan and United States Population Growth for Selected Age Groups, 2002-2008
-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
Under 5Years
5 to 13Years
14 to 17Years
18 to 24Years
16Years +
18Years +
15 to 44Years
65Years +
85Years +
Age Group
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
Michigan
United States
Source: Census
Not All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines
Legend
-12.78 - -7.64
-7.63 - -2.34
-2.33 - 1.33
1.34 - 5.41
5.42 - 16.33
Percent Change,2000-2008
Source: Census
Percent Change,2005-2008
-6.38 - -4.92
-4.91 - -2.15
-2.14 - -0.85
-0.84 - 0.71
0.72 - 3.10
Legend
Not All Counties Are Experiencing Population Declines
Source: Census
Michigan’s Educational Attainment Lags the Nation
Percentage of Population Aged 25 and Over With a Bachelor's Degree in Michigan and the United States, 1977-2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year
Per
cen
t
United States
Michigan
Source: Census
What Does this Mean for the Michigan Economy?
• Michigan will not likely share in the same recovery of the nation.
• Michigan’s population education attainment hinders progress in the Global Economy.
• The continued decline in the dollar may temporarily prop Michigan’s manufacturing sector, but the long-term U.S. and Michigan trend is away from manufacturing.
• The auto sector is likely to experience further declines or anemic growth in the foreseeable future.
• PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded at,www.cea.msu.edu
• For further information, contactSteven R. Miller 88 Agriculture Hall Michigan State University East Lansing, MI 48824 (517) 355-2153 mill1707@msu.edu
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