Methods for the computation of VaR und CVaRcela/Vorlesungen/...Methods for the computation of VaR...

Methods for the computation of VaR und CVaR

Consider the portfolio value Vm = f (tm,Zm), where Zm is the vector ofrisk factors.

Let the loss function over the interval [tm, tm+1] be given asLm+1 = l[m](Xm+1), where Xm+1 is the vector of the risk factor changes,i.e.

Xm+1 = Zm+1 − Zm.

Consider observations (historical data) of risk factor valuesZm−n+1, . . . ,Zm.How to use these data to compute/estimate VaR(Lm+1), CVaR(Lm+1)?

The empirical VaR and the empirical CVaRLet x1, x2, . . . , xn be a sample of i.i.d. random variables X1,X2, . . . ,Xn

with distribution function F .

with distribution function F .The empirical distribution function

Fn(x) =1

I[xk ,+∞)(x)

Fn(x) =1

I[xk ,+∞)(x)

The empirical quantile

qα(Fn) = inf{x ∈ IR : Fn(x) ≥ α} = F←n (α)

Fn(x) =1

I[xk ,+∞)(x)

Assumption: x1 > x2 > . . . > xn. Then qα(Fn) = x[n(1−α)]+1 holds, where[y ] := sup{n ∈ IN : n ≤ y} for every y ∈ IR.

Fn(x) =1

I[xk ,+∞)(x)

LemmaLet qα(F ) := qα(Fn) and let F be a strictly increasing function. Thenlimn→∞ qα(F ) = qα(F ) holds ∀α ∈ (0, 1), i.e. the estimator qα(F ) isconsistent.

Fn(x) =1

I[xk ,+∞)(x)

LemmaLet qα(F ) := qα(Fn) and let F be a strictly increasing function. Thenlimn→∞ qα(F ) = qα(F ) holds ∀α ∈ (0, 1), i.e. the estimator qα(F ) isconsistent.

The empirical estimator of CVaR is CVaRα(F ) =∑[n(1−α)]+1

k=1 xk[(n(1−α)]+1

A non-parametric bootstrapping approach to compute the

confidence interval of the estimator

Let X1,X2, . . . ,Xn be i.i.d. with distribution function F and letx1, x2, . . . xn be a sample of F .

Goal: computation of an estimator of a certain parameter θ depending onF , e.g. θ = qα(F ), and the corresponding confidence interval.

Let θ(x1, . . . , xn) be an estimator of θ, e.g. θ(x1, . . . , xn) = x[(n(1−α)]+1,n

θ = qα(F ), where x1,n > x2,n > . . . > xn,n is the ordered sample.The required confidence interval is an (a, b) with a = a(x1, . . . , xn) u.b = b(x1, . . . , xn), such that P(a < θ < b) = p, for a given confidencelevel p.

Let θ(x1, . . . , xn) be an estimator of θ, e.g. θ(x1, . . . , xn) = x[(n(1−α)]+1,n

θ = qα(F ), where x1,n > x2,n > . . . > xn,n is the ordered sample.The required confidence interval is an (a, b) with a = a(x1, . . . , xn) u.b = b(x1, . . . , xn), such that P(a < θ < b) = p, for a given confidencelevel p.

Case I: F is known.

Generate N samples x(i)1 , x

(i)2 , . . . , x

(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N , by simulation from F

(N should be large)

Let θi = θ

(x(i)1 , x

(i)2 , . . . , x

), 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Case I (cont.)

The empirical distribution function of θ(x1, x2, . . . , xn) is given as

F θN :=

I[θi ,∞)

and it tends to F θ for N → ∞.

The required conficence interval is given as

(q 1−p

2(F θ

N), q 1+p2(F θ

(assuming that the sample sizes N und n are large enough).

Case II: F is not known ⇒ Bootstrapping!The empirical distribution function of Xi , 1 ≤ i ≤ n, is given as

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

For n large Fn ≈ F holds.

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

Generate samples from Fn be choosing n elementes in {x1, x2, . . . , xn}and putting every element back to the set immediately after its choice

Assume N such samples are generated: x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Compute θ∗i = θ

(x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Compute θ∗i = θ

(x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n

The empirical distribution of θ∗i is given as F θ∗

N (x) = 1N

i=1 I[θ∗

i,∞)(x);

it approximates the distribution function F θ of θ(X1,X2, . . . ,Xn) forN → ∞.

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Compute θ∗i = θ

(x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n

N (x) = 1N

i=1 I[θ∗

i,∞)(x);

A confidence interval (a, b) with confidence level p is given by

a = q(1−p)/2(Fθ∗

N ), b = q(1+p)/2(Fθ∗

Fn(x) =1

I[xi ,∞)(x).

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N .

Compute θ∗i = θ

(x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n

N (x) = 1N

i=1 I[θ∗

i,∞)(x);

A confidence interval (a, b) with confidence level p is given by

a = q(1−p)/2(Fθ∗

N ), b = q(1+p)/2(Fθ∗

Thus a = θ∗[N(1+p)/2]+1,N , b = θ∗[N(1−p)/2]+1,N , where θ∗1,N ≥ . . . θ∗N,N isthe sorted θ∗ sample.

Summary of the non-parametric bootstrapping approach to

compute confidence intervals

Input: Sample x1, x2, . . . , xn of the i.i.d. random variables X1,X2, . . . ,Xn

with distribution function F and an estimator θ(x1, x2, . . . , xn) of anunknown parameter θ(F ), A confidence level p ∈ (0, 1).

Output: A confidence interval Ip for θ with confidence level p.

◮ Generate N new Samples x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n , 1 ≤ i ≤ N , by

chosing elements in {x1, x2, . . . , xn} and putting them back rightafter the choice.

◮ Compute θ∗i = θ

(x∗(i)1 , x

∗(i)2 , . . . , x

∗(i)n

◮ Setz Ip :=

(θ∗[N(1+p)/2]+1,N , θ

[N(1−p)/2]+1,N

), where

θ∗1,N ≥ θ∗2,N ≥ . . . θ∗N,N is obtained by sorting θ∗1 , θ∗

2 , . . . , θ∗

An approximative solution without bootstrapping

Input: A sample x1, x2, . . . , xn of the random variables Xi , 1 ≤ i ≤ n,i.i.d. with unknown continuous distribution function F , a confidence levelp ∈ (0, 1)

Output: A small p′ ∈ (0, 1), p′ ≥ p, and a confidence interval (a, b) forqα(F ), i.e. a = a(x1, x2, . . . , xn), b = b(x1, x2, . . . , xn), such that

P(a < qα(F ) < b) = p′ and P(a ≥ qα(F )) = P(b ≤ qα(F ) ≤ (1−p)/2 holds.

Output: A small p′ ∈ (0, 1), p′ ≥ p, and a confidence interval (a, b) forqα(F ), i.e. a = a(x1, x2, . . . , xn), b = b(x1, x2, . . . , xn), such that

P(a < qα(F ) < b) = p′ and P(a ≥ qα(F )) = P(b ≤ qα(F ) ≤ (1−p)/2 holds.

Determine i > j , i , j ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n}, and the smallest p′ > p, such that

(xi ,n < qα(F ) < xj,n

)= p′ (∗) and

(xi ,n ≥ qα(F )

)≤ (1− p)/2 and P

(xj,n ≤ qα(F )

)≤ (1− p)/2(∗∗),

where x1,n ≥ x2,n ≥ . . . ≥ xn,n is obtained from x1, x2, . . . , xn by sorting.

An approximative solution without bootstrapping (contd.)

Let Yα := #{xk : xk > qα(F )}

We get P(xj,n ≤ qα(F )) ≈ P(xj,n < qα(F )) = P(Yα ≤ j − 1)P(xi ,n ≥ qα(F )) ≈ P(xi ,n > qα(F )) = 1− P(Yα ≤ i − 1)

Yα ∼ Bin(n, 1 − α) since Prob(xk ≥ qα(F )) ≈ 1− α for a sample pointxk .

Compute P(xj,n ≤ qα(F )) and P(xi ,n ≥ qα(F )) for different i and j untilindices i , j ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n}, i > j , which fulfill (∗∗) are found.

Set a := xj,n and b := xi ,n.

Historical simulation

Let xm−n+1, . . . , xm be historical observations of the risk factor changesXm−n+1, . . . ,Xm; the historically realized losses are given aslk = l[m](xm−k+1), k = 1, 2, . . . , n,

Assumption: the historically realized losses are i.i.d.The historically realized losses can be seen as a sample of the lossdistribution.

Empirical VaR: VaR = qα(FLn ) = l[n(1−α)]+1,n

Empirical CVaR: CVaR =∑[n(1−α)]+1

i=1 li,n

[n(1−α)]+1 ,

where l1,n ≥ l2,n ≥ . . . ≥ ln,n is obtained from li , 1 ≤ i ≤ n, by sorting.

Empirical CVaR: CVaR =∑[n(1−α)]+1

i=1 li,n

[n(1−α)]+1 ,

where l1,n ≥ l2,n ≥ . . . ≥ ln,n is obtained from li , 1 ≤ i ≤ n, by sorting.

VaR and CVaR of the loss aggregated over a number of days, e.g. 10days, over the days m − n + 10(k − 1) + 1,m − n + 10(k − 1) + 2, . . . ,

m − n + 10(k − 1) + 10, denoted by l(10)k is given as

l(10)k = l[m]

(∑10

j=1 xm−n+10(k−1)+j

)k = 1, . . . , [n/10]

Historical simulation (contd.)

Advantages:

◮ simple implementation

◮ considers intrinsically the dependencies between the elements of thevector of the risk factors changes Xm−k = (Xm−k,1, . . . ,Xm−k,d ).

Historical simulation (contd.)

Advantages:

◮ considers intrinsically the dependencies between the elements of thevector of the risk factors changes Xm−k = (Xm−k,1, . . . ,Xm−k,d ).

Disadvantages:

◮ lots of historical data needed to get good estimators

◮ the estimated loss cannot be larger than the maximal lossexperienced in the past

The variance-covariance method

Idea: use the linearised loss function under the assumption that thevector of the risk factor changes is normally distributed.

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

i=1 wiXm+1,i = −VwTXm+1,where V := Vm, wi := wm,i , w = (w1, . . . ,wd )

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

Assumption 1: Xm+1 ∼ Nd (µ,Σ),and thus −VwTXm+1 ∼ N(−VwTµ,V 2wTΣw)

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

Let xm−n+1, . . . , xm be the historically observed risk factor changes

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

Assumption 2: xm−n+1, . . . , xm are i.i.d.

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

Estimator for µi : µi =1n

k=1 xm−k+1,i , i = 1, 2, . . . , d

Estimator for Σ =

): Σ =

)where

σij =1

k=1(xm−k+1,i − µi )(xm−k+1,j − µj) i , j = 1, 2, . . . , d

L∆m+1 = l∆m (Xm+1) = −V∑d

T ,Xm+1 = (Xm+1,1,Xm+1,2, . . . ,Xm+1,d)

Estimator for µi : µi =1n

k=1 xm−k+1,i , i = 1, 2, . . . , d

Estimator for Σ =

): Σ =

)where

σij =1

k=1(xm−k+1,i − µi )(xm−k+1,j − µj) i , j = 1, 2, . . . , d

Estimator for VaR: VaR(Lm+1) = −VwT µ+ V√

wT Σwφ−1(α)

The variance-covariance method (contd.)

Advantages:

◮ analytical solution

◮ no simulationen needed

The variance-covariance method (contd.)

Advantages:

◮ analytical solution

◮ no simulationen needed

Disadvantages:

◮ Linearisation is not always appropriate, only for a short time horizonreasonable

◮ The normal distribution assumption could lead to underestimationof risks and should be argued upon (e.g. in terms of historical data)

Monte-Carlo approach

(1) historical observations of risk factor changes Xm−n+1, . . ., Xm.

(2) assumption on a parametric model for the cumulative distributionfunction of Xk , m − n+ 1 ≤ k ≤ m;e.g. a common distribution function F and independence

(3) estimation of the parameters of F .

(4) generation of N samples x1, x2, . . . , xN from F (N ≫ 1) andcomputation of the losses lk = l[m](xk ), 1 ≤ k ≤ N

(5) computation of the empirical distribution of the loss function Lm+1:

F Lm+1

N (x) =1

I[lk ,∞)(x).

(5) computation of estimates for the VaR and CVAR of the loss

function: VaR(Lm+1) = (F Lm+1

)= l[N(1−α)]+1,N ,

CVaR(Lm+1) =∑[N(1−α)]+1

k=1 lk,N

[N(1−α)]+1 ,

where the losses are sorted l1,N ≥ l2,N ≥ . . . ≥ lN.N .

Monte-Carlo approach (contd.)

Advantages:

◮ very flexible; can use any distribution F from which simulation ispossible

◮ time dependencies of the risk factor changes can be considered byusing time series

Advantages:

◮ very flexible; can use any distribution F from which simulation ispossible

◮ time dependencies of the risk factor changes can be considered byusing time series

Disadvantages:

◮ computationally expensive; a large number of simulations needed toobtain good estimates

ExampleThe portfolio consists of one unit of asset S with price be St at time t.The risk factor changes

Xk+1 = ln(Stk+1)− ln(Stk ),

are i.i.d. with distribution function Fθ for some unknown parameter θ.

are i.i.d. with distribution function Fθ for some unknown parameter θ.θ can be estimated by means of historical data (e.g. maximum likelihoodapproaches)

are i.i.d. with distribution function Fθ for some unknown parameter θ.θ can be estimated by means of historical data (e.g. maximum likelihoodapproaches)Let the price at time tk be S := Stk

are i.i.d. with distribution function Fθ for some unknown parameter θ.θ can be estimated by means of historical data (e.g. maximum likelihoodapproaches)Let the price at time tk be S := StkThe VaR of the portfolio over [tk , tk+1] is given as

VaRα(Ltk+1) = S

(1− exp{F←θ (1− α)}

are i.i.d. with distribution function Fθ for some unknown parameter θ.θ can be estimated by means of historical data (e.g. maximum likelihoodapproaches)Let the price at time tk be S := StkThe VaR of the portfolio over [tk , tk+1] is given as

VaRα(Ltk+1) = S

(1− exp{F←θ (1− α)}

Depending on Fθ it can be complicated or impossible to compute CVaRanalytically.Alternative: Monte-Carlo simulation.

ExampleLet the portfolio and the risk factor changes Xk+1 be as in the previousexample.A popular model for the logarithmic returns of assets is GARCH(1,1)(see e.g. Alexander 2002):

Xk+1 = σk+1Zk+1 (1)

σ2k+1 = a0 + a1X

2k + b1σ

2k (2)

where Zk , k ∈ IN, are i.i.d. and standard normally distributed, and a0,a1and b1 are parameters, which should be estimated.

Xk+1 = σk+1Zk+1 (1)

σ2k+1 = a0 + a1X

2k + b1σ

2k (2)

It is simple to simulate from this model.

Xk+1 = σk+1Zk+1 (1)

σ2k+1 = a0 + a1X

2k + b1σ

2k (2)

It is simple to simulate from this model.

However analytical computation of VaR and CVaR over a certain timeinterval consisting of many periods is cumbersome! Check it out!

Chapter 3: Extreme value theory

Notation:

◮ We will often use the same notation for the distribution of a randomvariable (r.v.) and its (cumulative) distribution function!

◮ f (x) ∼ g(x) for x → ∞ means limx→∞ f (x)/g(x) = 1

◮ F := 1− F is called the right tail of the univariate distributionfunction F .

Notation:

Terminology: We say a r.v. X has fat tails or is heavy tailed (h.t.) iff

limx→∞F (x)e−λx = ∞, ∀λ > 0.

Notation:

limx→∞F (x)e−λx = ∞, ∀λ > 0.

Also a r.v. X for which ∃k ∈ IN with E (X k ) = ∞ will be often calledheavy tailed.

Notation:

limx→∞F (x)e−λx = ∞, ∀λ > 0.

Also a r.v. X for which ∃k ∈ IN with E (X k ) = ∞ will be often calledheavy tailed.

These two “definitions” are not equivalent!

Regular variation

DefinitionA measurable function h : (0,+∞) → (0,+∞) has a regular variationwith index ρ ∈ IR towards +∞ iff

limt→+∞

h(t)= xρ , ∀x > 0 (3)

Notation: h ∈ RVρ.

Regular variation

limt→+∞

h(t)= xρ , ∀x > 0 (3)

If ρ = 0, we say h has a slow variation or is slowly varying towards ∞.

Regular variation

limt→+∞

h(t)= xρ , ∀x > 0 (3)

If ρ = 0, we say h has a slow variation or is slowly varying towards ∞.If h ∈ RVρ, then h(x)/xρ ∈ RV0.

Regular variation

limt→+∞

h(t)= xρ , ∀x > 0 (3)

If ρ = 0, we say h has a slow variation or is slowly varying towards ∞.If h ∈ RVρ, then h(x)/xρ ∈ RV0.If h ∈ RVρ, then ∃L ∈ RV0 such that h(x) = L(x)xρ (L(x) = h(x)/xρ).

Regular variation

limt→+∞

h(t)= xρ , ∀x > 0 (3)

If ρ = 0, we say h has a slow variation or is slowly varying towards ∞.If h ∈ RVρ, then h(x)/xρ ∈ RV0.If h ∈ RVρ, then ∃L ∈ RV0 such that h(x) = L(x)xρ (L(x) = h(x)/xρ).If ρ < 0, then the convergence in (3) uniform in every interval (b,+∞)for b > 0.

ExampleShow that L ∈ RV0 holds for the functions L as below:

(a) limx→+∞ L(x) = c ∈ (0,+∞)

(b) L(x) := ln(1 + x)

(c) L(x) := ln(1 + ln(1 + x))

Example: Check whether f ∈ RV0 holds for f (x) = 3 + sin x ,f (x) = ln(e + x) + sin x?

Notice: a function L ∈ RV0 can have an infinite variation on ∞:

lim infx→∞

L(x) = 0 and lim supx→∞

L(x) = ∞

as for example L(x) = exp{(ln(1 + x))2 cos((ln(1 + x))1/2)}.

lim infx→∞

L(x) = ∞

Definition: Let X > 0 be a r.v. with distribution function F . X is saidto have a regular variation on +∞, iff F ∈ RV−α for some α > 0.

lim infx→∞

L(x) = ∞

Example:

1. Pareto distribution: F (x) := 1− x−α, for x > 1 and α > 0. ThenF (tx)/F (x) = x−α holds for t > 0, i.e. F ∈ RV−α.

lim infx→∞

L(x) = ∞

Example:

2. Frechet distribution: F (x) := exp{−x−α} for x > 0 and F (0) = 0,for some parameter (fixed) α > 0. Then limx→∞ F (x)/x−α = 1holds, i.e. F ∈ RV−α.

lim infx→∞

L(x) = ∞

Example:

Proposition (no proof)Let X > 0 be a r.v. with distribution function F , such that F ∈ RV−α forsome α > 0. Then E (Xβ) < ∞ for β < α and E (Xβ) = ∞ for β > αhold.

lim infx→∞

L(x) = ∞

Example:

Proposition (no proof)Let X > 0 be a r.v. with distribution function F , such that F ∈ RV−α forsome α > 0. Then E (Xβ) < ∞ for β < α and E (Xβ) = ∞ for β > αhold.The converse is not true!

Application of regular variation

Example 1: Let X1 and X2 be two nonnegative i.i.d. r.v. withdistribution function F , F ∈ RV−α for some α > 0. Let X1 (X2)represent the loss of a portfolio which consists of 1 unit of asset A1 (A2).

Assumption: The prices of A1 and A2 are identical and their logreturnsare i.i.d..

Consider a portfolio P1 containing 2 units of asset A1 and a portfolio P2

containing one unit of A1 and one unit of A2. Let Li represent the loss ofportfolio Pi , i = 1, 2.

Consider a portfolio P1 containing 2 units of asset A1 and a portfolio P2

containing one unit of A1 and one unit of A2. Let Li represent the loss ofportfolio Pi , i = 1, 2.

Compare the probabilities of high losses in the two portfolios bycomputing the limit

liml→∞

Prob(L2 > l)

Prob(L1 > l).

Methods for the computation of VaR und CVaRcela/Vorlesungen/...Methods for the computation of VaR...

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class CBP1_Girl_A extends CBP1_Pawn; var string name; var bool Hit1; var bool Hit2;