Measuring Climatic GradientsMeasuring Climatic Gradients

How do these climatic elements separate How do these climatic elements separate the alpine from the nival species pool?the alpine from the nival species pool?

Sampling rate: 1 hourSampling rate: 1 hour

••TT

••Snow cover durationSnow cover duration

Measuring Climatic Gradients / SnowMeasuring Climatic Gradients / Snow

Number of days with snowcover (May-July)10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Prob

abili

ty o

f pre

senc

e

0.0

1.0

Carex curvulaSilene exscapaFestuca intercedensPrimula glutinosaLuzula spicataMinuartia sedoidesSaxifraga bryoidesOreochloa distichaErigeron uniflorus

Number of days with snowcover (May-July)10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Prob

abili

ty o

f pre

senc

e

0.0

1.0

Androsace alpinaPoa alpinaRanunculus glacialisPoa laxaCerastium uniflorum

early snowmeltearly snowmelt

late snowmeltlate snowmelt

nivalnivalalpinealpine

TEMPERATURE

Black:

FP 6 ALARM climate data(observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )

Coloured:

Directmeasurements at Schrankogel

Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel

TEMPERATURE

ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )

2000-2100: +6°C

Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel

+9 to 10°C

PRECIPITATION

ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) - HadCM3 )

Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel

Climate measurements and projections at Schrankogel

PRECIPITATION

ALARM dataset (observed and GRAS (A1FI) -HadCM3 )

TEMPERATURE

By combining the effects of strongly increasing T and relatively stableprecipitation one has to project drastic decrease in snow cover duration

at Schrankogel.

Which vegetation changes can already be observed?

Start of observations: 1994

First monitoring: 2004, one decade later

+1-1.5 °C 1900-2000

+0.1 °C 1994-2004

at a lapse rate of0.7 °C / 100 m

= ~+14 m per decade

n species increase (% of 1994)

02468

1012141618

100 80 50 0

data level (p-threshold)

% in

crea

se

mean

95%-conf.int.

per unit land area

Increase in species number per quadrat 1994-2004

alpine quadrats nival quadrats

Incr

ease

in n

of s

peci

es p

er q

uadr

at

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

species richness increase is BY FAR higher in NIVAL than in ALPINE habitats

Studysite

% species increaseper unit land area

How much speciesincrease(in presence/absence) increase,

p<=0.05

increase,p>0.05

noincrease

decrease

Species cover:

Winners and losers ?

alpine species pool

nival species pool

Source: Pauli et al. 1999, Phytocoenolgia

Veronica alpinaLeucanthemopsis alpinaSilene exscapaSibbaldia procumbensSaxifraga seguieriPedicularis asplenifoliaOreochloa distichaFestuca intercedensErigeron uniflorusCerastium cerastoides

COVER INCREASED

Cover change

Saxifraga oppositifoliaSaxifraga bryoidesRanunculus glacialisPotentilla frigidaPoa laxaPhyteuma hemisphaeric.Luzula spicataCerastium uniflorumCarex curvulaAndrosace alpina

COVER DECREASED

Alpine, alpine to nival, nival species

p=0.02

20041994

a

Silene exscapa alpine

1994 2004

b

Silene exscapa alpine

1994 2004

c

Leucanthemopsis alpina alpine

20041994

e

Cerastium uniflorum nival

1994 2004

f

Saxifraga bryoides nival

1994 2004g

Poa laxa nival

Results so far are accepted by Global Change Biology

Altitudinal moving in terms of metres per decade?

still in analysis BUT:

(unpublished):

~10-12 m / decadeupward migration

compare~14 m / decadeisothermal shift

given an acceleratedT increase of +6 to+ 10 °C until 2100:

•nival zone in Austria extinct, few isolated refugia in Switzerland,France, Italy

•treeline at 3000 m

(economic)adaptation

mitigationof CC acceleration(for the ecosphere and its services)

the world withand without Kyoto