Post on 10-Aug-2021
Name HereTITLE GOES HERE
Company Name
Matthew GardnerC H I E F E C O N O M I S T
Windermere Real Estate
A Regional EconomicOverview & ForecastPresented by: Matthew GardnerCHIEF ECONOMIST; WINDERMERE REAL ESTATE
Western U.S.Labor Market
EMPLOYMENT SHORTFALL & RELATIVE U. RATESSource:Windermere
Economics’ analysis of BLS data thru’ 04/21
8.3%8.0%
6.7%6.4%
6.1% 6.0%5.5% 5.4%
3.7%
3.1%2.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
CA NV AZ CO U.S. OR WA WY MT ID UT
Relative Unemployment RatesApril 2021; sa
168.9K
130.7K
1.41M
N/A(+11.5K)
134.2K128.6K
14.5K
73.4K94.8K
N/A(+18.5K)
8.5K
Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels
WESTERN U.S. METRO AREASSource:Windermere
Economics’ analysis of BLS data thru’ 04/21
-37.8
-68.6
-153.6
-179.6
-199.1
-254.2
-255.8
-280.9
-409.2
-772.5
39.4
66.0
67.3
88.4
131.4
131.2
134.6
153.4
162.4
275.1
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400
Boise
Salt Lake City
San Jose
Portland
Denver
San Diego
Seattle/Tacoma
Las Vegas
San Francisco
Los Angeles
COVID-19 Impact on Employmentin thousands; sa
Lost Recovered
497.4
246.8
127.5 123 121.291.2 86.3
67.7
2.60
100
200
300
400
500
600
Los Angele
s
San Francisc
o
Las Vegas
San Diego
Seattle/T
acoma
Portland
San Jose
Denver
Salt Lak
e City
Boise
Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levelsin thousands; sa
N/A
Washington StateLabor Market
RECOVERY IS SLOWING – FOR NOWSource:
Windermere Economics’ analysis of
WA ESD data thru’ 05/21
5,200
-23,100
-385,800
-11,500
83,90037,900 30,600 13,000 2,700 7,100
-11,100
5,100 29,600 27,000 13,200 8,300
-500,000-400,000-300,000-200,000-100,000
0100,000200,000
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Change in Non-Ag EmploymentWA State monthly change; sa
2,800,000
3,000,000
3,200,000
3,400,000
3,600,000
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-1
2
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-1
3
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-1
4
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-1
5
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-1
6
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-1
7
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-1
8
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-1
9
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-2
0
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
WA State Non-Ag Employmentsa
STILL DOWN OVER 173K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere
Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data
1/ Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities
7,800
1,300
8,900
6,900
-8,700
11,600
23,500
35,100
47,500
46,200
20,500
69,200
-3,000
-7,200
-10,300
-10,500
-26,000
-26,100
-34,500
-37,200
-44,700
-46,800
-56,200
-142,400
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000
Information
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
TWU 1/
Manufacturing
Other
Prof. & Business Svcs.
Construction
Retail Trade
Education & Health Svcs.
Gov't
Leisure & Hosp.
Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorWashington State; data through May 2021
Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered
WA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS BELOW 5% BY Q-4 Source:Washington State ESD
& BLS
3.5%
4.4%
14.8%
13.3%
11.1%
10.2%
8.4%7.8%
6.9% 6.7% 6.7%6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.1%
5.8%
4.1%
5.3%
16.3%
12.5%
10.8% 10.8%
9.1%
8.0%
7.0%6.7%
6.3%6.0%
5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
U.S. WA State
Relative Unemployment Rate Trendsseasonally adjusted
FINDING EMPLOYEES IS A MAJOR CONCERNSource: Windermere Economics’ analysis of
WA ESD data thru’ 04/2021
-2,800
-8,200
-500 -500
-2,100
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
WA State L&H Employmentsa
-19,800
-30,700
-93,300
6,100
17,200
47,100
-13,700 -13,500
-46,200
-120,000
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Accommodation Arts, Entertainment &Rec
Food Svcs. & DrinkingPlaces
Impact of COVID-19 on L&H EmploymentWA State; sa
Lost Recovered Shortfall
EMPLOYMENT WILL RISE – BETTER IN 2022Source: Washington State ESD history &
Windermere Economics’ forecasts
-300,000
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
Washington State Employment Forecast
+78K
+125K
Washington Metro AreaLabor Markets
SOLID IMPROVEMENT; BUT STILL A WAY TO GOSource: Windermere Economics’ analysis of
WA ESD data
3,300
6,500
7,500
9,600
11,000
11,600
13,800
14,700
28,800
41,300
216,600
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Longview
Wenatchee
Mt. Vernon
Yakima
Bremerton
Kennewick
Olympia
Bellingham
Spokane
Tacoma
Seattle
Washington MSA Employment ChangeFeb. - May 2020
2,700
3,300
3,400
4,900
6,100
6,300
7,900
8,100
18,600
25,500
102,800
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Longview
Bremerton
Mt. Vernon
Wenatchee
Yakima
Bellingham
Olympia
Kennewick
Spokane
Tacoma
Seattle
Washington MSA Employment ChangeMay 2020 - Apr. 2021
BETTER THAN IT WAS!Source:Washington State ESD
19.4%18.9%
18.1%
17.0%16.6% 16.5%
16.1%15.4%
14.8% 14.6%13.7%
12.7%
6.7%5.9%
6.5%
5.5% 5.4%
6.7%
5.3% 5.2% 5.1%
8.1%
5.9%5.0%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Mt. Vernon Tacoma Bellingham Spokane Seattle Longview Olympia Wenatchee Bremerton Yakima Kennewick WallaWalla
Relative Unemployment Rates by MSAsa Apr-20 Apr-21
STILL DOWN OVER 127K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere
Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data
Data thru’ 04/2021
800
500
2,300
1,900
2,100
1,300
2,300
3,300
6,800
8,800
27,900
-1,100
-1,700
-2,900
-3,100
-3,500
-4,300
-4,400
-4,900
-9,300
-13,700
-78,500
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000
Longview
Mt. Vernon
Wenatchee
Yakima
Bremerton
Olympia
Bellingham
Kennewick
Spokane
Tacoma
Seattle
COVID-19 L&H Jobs Lost & RecoveredWA metro areas; sa
Lost Recovered
50,600
4,9003,000 2,500 2,100 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 600 300
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Seattle
Tacom
a
Olympia
Spokan
e
Bellingh
am
Kennew
ick
Bremert
on
Mt. Vernon
Yakim
a
Wenatch
ee
Longv
iew
L&H Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic LevelsWA metro areas; sa
Still Down by 69,400 Jobs
The Seattle & TacomaLabor Markets
DOWN 111K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere
Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data thru’
04/20211/ Transportation,
Warehousing & Utilities
6,200
2,100
4,300
-11,700
-200
100
6,000
3,000
22,500
10,300
28,400
18,700
27,900
-1,000
-3,700
-6,600
-7,300
-7,400
-8,500
-14,100
-17,700
-19,600
-20,500
-21,300
-24,100
-78,500
100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 25,000 50,000
Information
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
Aerospace
TWU 1/
Other Manufacturing
Other
Gov't
Construction
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Retail Trade
Ed. & Health Svcs.
Leis. & Hosp.
Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorSeattle MSA
Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered
-10,600
-19,000
-50,300
1,900
9,900
17,400
-8,700 -9,100
-32,900
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Accommodation Arts, Entertainment &Rec
Food Svcs. & DrinkingPlaces
Impact of COVID-19 on the Hospitality SectorSeattle MSA; data thru 05/2021; sa
Lost Recovered Shortfall
DOWN 15.8K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere
Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data thru’
04/20211/ Transportation,
Warehousing & Utilities
0
1,900
300
900
400
1,500
400
3,300
5,600
4,800
1,300
8,800
-300
-600
-1,000
-1,200
-2,100
-3,700
-3,900
-4,100
-4,600
-5,000
-5,600
-13,700
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000
Information
TWU 1/
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing
Other
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Construction
Retail Trade
Ed. & Health Svcs.
Gov't
Leis. & Hosp.
Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorTacoma MSA
Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered
-4,000
-9,800
1,200
7,600
-2,800-2,200
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Accommodation Food Svcs. & Drinking Places
Impact of COVID-19 on the Hospitality SectorTacoma MSA; data thru 04/2021; sa
Lost Recovered Shortfall
FULL JOB RECOVERY BY 2023Source: Washington State ESD history &
Windermere Economics’ forecasts
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
Seattle MSA Employment ForecastDec – Dec Change in non-ag employment
+61K+74K
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)
Tacoma MSA Employment ForecastDec – Dec change in non-ag employment
+9.2K+7.2K
WE ARE TRAVELLING MORESource:Port of Seattle
-2,800
-8,200
-500 -500
-2,100
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000W
k. 1
Wk.
2W
k. 3
Wk.
4W
k. 5
Wk.
6W
k. 7
Wk.
8W
k. 9
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10
Wk.
11
Wk.
12
Wk.
13
Wk.
14
Wk.
15
Wk.
16
Wk.
17
Wk.
18
Wk.
19
Wk.
20
Wk.
21
Wk.
22
Wk.
23
Wk.
24
Wk.
25
Wk.
26
Wk.
27
Wk.
28
Wk.
29
Wk.
30
Wk.
31
Wk.
32
Wk.
33
Wk.
34
Wk.
35
Wk.
36
Wk.
37
Wk.
38
Wk.
39
Wk.
40
Wk.
41
Wk.
42
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43
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44
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45
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46
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47
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48
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49
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50
Wk.
51
Wk.
52
Passengers Passing Through SeaTac TSA Checkpoints 2019
2020
2021
BUT EATING OUT HAS YET TO RECOVERSource:Open Table
2019 is the baseline
-2,800
-8,200
-500 -500
-2,100
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%2/
283/
204/
10 5/1
5/22
6/12 7/
37/
248/
14 9/4
9/25
10/1
611
/611
/27
12/1
81/
81/
292/
193/
12 4/2
4/23
5/14 6/
4
chan
ge fr
om s
ame
day
in 2
019
WA Restaurant Bookings7-day moving average
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
2/28
3/20
4/10 5/
15/
226/
12 7/3
7/24
8/14 9/
49/
2510
/16
11/6
11/2
712
/18
1/8
1/29
2/19
3/12 4/
24/
235/
14 6/4
chan
ge fr
om s
ame
day
in 2
019
Seattle Restaurant Bookings7-day moving average
WA STATE FORECAST
-2,800
-8,200
-500 -500
-2,100• The Job Recovery Continues; But Aerospace & L&H Still
Lagging;• Domestic Leisure Travel Has Improved at Rates Nobody
Expected – But Business Travel Yet to Bounce Back;• State Returns to Pre-Pandemic Employment Levels in
Early 2023;• Labor Shortages in Some Service Industries Persists –
Wages Have to Rise to Bring Workers Back!• And Finally…. I Really Need a “Post-Quarantini”…. Care
to Join Me? You All Deserve One!
Thank You