Post on 05-Feb-2016
description
MANE-VU states, Virginia and West Virginia Regional Haze
Trend Analyses
Latest available (December 2011)
2000-2010 IMPROVE DATA
(for TSC 5/22/2012)
Tom Downs, CCM
Chief Meteorologist
Maine DEP-BAQ
20% Best and 20% Worst Visibility Day Deciview Trends
• RH data available on the IMPROVE (http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Data/IMPROVE/summary_data.htm) and VIEWS (http://views.cira.colostate.edu/web/DataWizard/) websites.
• Data used in the plots for this presentation is the most recent (December 2011) QA’d data using the new revised IMPROVE algorithm
• The following set of plots compare monitored deciview values for the 20% best and worst visibility days with natural background, the Uniform “glide path” to natural conditions for the 20% worst visibility days and the CMAQ modeled 20% worst and best days “glide paths” from the baseline period to 2018.
MOOSEHORN NWR, MAINE CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2000
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
ACADIA NP, MAINE CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2000
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
GREAT GULF, NH CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
LYE BROOK, VT CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
BRIGANTINE, NJ CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
SHENANDOAH NP, VA CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
DOLLY SODS, WV CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
IEW
20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
CMAQ 2018 20% worstday Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
CMAQ 2018 20% bestday Glide Path
TD - 5/17/2012
JAMES RIVER, VA CLASS I AREA REGIONAL HAZE DATA ANALYSES
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2018
YEAR
DE
CIV
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20% worst day
20% worst day 5-yrrunning average
Uniform Glide Path
Natural 20% Worstday
20% best day
Natural 20% Best day
TD - 5/17/2012
As states near the mid course review, are deciview levels showing
reasonable progress?
• For the 20% best visibility days all sites are trending below their “glide path” and many sites are currently significantly below their respective Uniform and CMAQ 2018 “glide path” levels
• Visibility during the 20% best visibility days are not degrading
Light Extinction Contribution Trends• The following set of slides show the relative
contributions to light extinction for the 20% best and 20% worst visibility days due to the following particles in the atmosphere:– Ammonium sulfate– Ammonium nitrate– Organic mass– Light absorbing carbon– Fine Soil– Sea Salt– Coarse Mass (PM10) – Total particle (PM2.5 and PM10)– Rayleigh scattering
Acadia NP, ME 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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35%
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45%
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55%
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65%
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100%
1990
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DE
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Acadia NP, ME 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Moosehorn NWR, ME 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
5%
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45%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Moosehorn NWR, ME 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Great Gulf, NH 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Great Gulf, NH 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Lye Brook, VT 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Lye Brook, VT 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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LYEB!$S$2
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Brigantine, NJ 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Brigantine, NJ 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Shenandoah NP, VA 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
0%
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Shenandoah NP, VA 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Dolly Sods, WV 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
Dolly Sods, WV 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
James River, VA 20% Worst Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
DV Glide Path
TD - 5/11/2012
James River, VA 20% Best Visibility Days Light Extinction and Deciview Trends
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%E Amm_SO4
%E Amm_NO3
%E Organic Mass
%E Light Abs Carbon
%E Soil
%E Coarse Mass
%E Sea_Salt
%E Particulate
%E Rayleigh
DV Annual
DV Natural Vis Goal
TD - 5/11/2012
Percent Contribution to Light Extinction
Ammonium sulfate
Organic mass
Ammonium nitrate
Light absorbing
carbonCoarse mass
Fine soil Sea Salt Rayleigh
Moosehorn 60% 12% 7% 5% 2% 0% 1% 13%Acadia 63% 10% 8% 4% 2% 0% 1% 11%Brigantine 66% 12% 8% 4% 3% 1% 0% 6%Lye Brook 67% 11% 7% 4% 1% 0% 0% 9%Great Gulf 68% 13% 3% 4% 3% 1% 0% 10%James River 72% 12% 4% 4% 2% 0% 0% 6%Shenandoah 79% 8% 3% 3% 1% 0% 0% 5%Dolly Sods 82% 7% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 5%
Moosehorn 55% 13% 6% 4% 2% 1% 2% 17%Acadia 59% 11% 7% 4% 3% 0% 2% 15%Brigantine 59% 10% 11% 4% 6% 1% 1% 9%Great Gulf 63% 12% 2% 4% 3% 1% 0% 15%Lye Brook 63% 11% 7% 4% 3% 1% 0% 12%James River 64% 15% 4% 5% 2% 1% 0% 8%Shenandoah 73% 10% 3% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8%Dolly Sods 78% 9% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 7%
Lye Brook 23% 7% 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 58%Moosehorn 26% 12% 4% 4% 4% 0% 1% 47%Great Gulf 27% 9% 4% 4% 4% 0% 1% 51%Acadia 28% 9% 4% 4% 3% 0% 2% 50%Brigantine 35% 11% 9% 6% 8% 1% 3% 28%Shenandoah 36% 9% 13% 5% 4% 1% 0% 33%Dolly Sods 40% 14% 9% 6% 2% 1% 0% 28%James River 41% 13% 9% 7% 3% 1% 0% 26%
Lye Brook 18% 4% 4% 2% 3% 0% 1% 68%Moosehorn 21% 9% 3% 3% 3% 0% 3% 57%Acadia 22% 9% 3% 3% 4% 0% 3% 56%Great Gulf 24% 8% 3% 3% 4% 0% 1% 57%Brigantine 31% 10% 8% 5% 8% 1% 5% 32%Shenandoah 35% 8% 11% 4% 4% 1% 1% 37%Dolly Sods 38% 10% 7% 5% 3% 1% 1% 37%James River 40% 12% 8% 7% 4% 1% 0% 29%
Baseline 2000-04 average 20% Worst Days
2006-10 average 20% Worst Days
Baseline 2000-04 average 20% Best Days
2006-10 average 20% Best Days
20% Worst Visibility Days
• Current (2006-10) contribution to light extinction due to sulfates continues to dominate (55-78%) at all sites with the highest contribution at sites in Virginia and West Virginia. (note this is down from 60-82% during the 2000-04 baseline period)
• Contribution to light extinction organic mass is the second highest at most sites (nitrates at Brigantine) and is not much higher than due to Rayleigh scattering.
• Contribution to light extinction from all other particle pollutants is the same or lower than due to Rayleigh scattering at all sites.
20% Best Visibility Days
• Contribution to light extinction due to Rayleigh scattering (56-68%) dominates at all northern sites with sulfates contribution second at 18-24% with organic mass third at 4-9%.
• Contribution to light extinction due to sulfates (31-40%) and due to Rayleigh scattering (29-37%) dominate at all southern sites sites with organic mass third at 7-11%.