Post on 17-Jan-2016
Making Transit Function More Like Automobiles: Flexible Services, New Technology, and Realistic
Future Prospects
Roger Teal
Conference on Redefining, Reevaluating,
and Reinventing Transit
October 16, 2001
Presentation Overview
• 30 Year Perspective on Public Transportation Innovation
• Getting Realistic about Service Innovation: Where We’ve Been, Where We Are, Lessons for Going Forward
• High Level Review of Public Transportation Technology
• Importance of Platform Based Solutions for New Generation Transit Services
• Future Prospects and Lessons Learned
Tomorrow Has Arrived, But Tomorrow’s Transportation Still Hasn’t
• Tomorrow’s Transportation published by HUD in 1968
• In-depth vision of near future transportation services that could handle urban America’s dispersed O-D patterns
• Serious, detailed studies by leading experts of day
• Covered the entire gamut of plausible innovations
• Focused on technology-enabled innovations
• Some services required more new technology than others
Tomorrow’s Transportation
• Services included in Tomorrow’s Transportation
– Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
– Dual mode highways and vehicles (automated highways)
– Demand Responsive Transit (DRT)
– Public automobile services (car sharing service)
– Bus rapid transit
– Fast transit links (high speed fixed guideway service)
– Flexible route transit services (route and point deviation)
• Next generation transit is essentially subsumed within this vision of 1/3 century ago
Getting Realistic About Transit Service Innovation: Where We’ve Been
• Many DRT systems, but ambitious service objectives abandoned
• Less than 20 DRT systems in U.S. have adopted fully automated vehicle control systems with mobile data communications
• Less than 10 flex route services operating nationally
• Route deviation service with fully automated control system in suburban VA (PRTC) has been 7 years in the making
• Europe has some sophisticated flex route and DRT operations
• No PRT, little bus rapid transit, progress on automated highways
Getting Realistic About Transit Service Innovation: Where We Are
• Technology has changed many facets of daily living in 30 years, but not our typical urban transportation experience
• Why is next generation transit based on last generation innovations?
– None of the innovations represented technology fixes
– Technology immaturity circa 1970’s
– Early experiments had difficulties, deterred later ventures
– Demand for services greatly overestimated
– Public sector entrepreneurialism is an oxymoron, replicable models are lacking for technology-enabled innovative services
Private Sector Experience Provides Insight
• Express delivery companies (e.g., FedEx) have successfully implemented technologically-advanced systems
• Scores of taxi and limo companies have implemented fully automated dispatch systems with mobile data communications
• Taxi industry looking at next generation standards-based solutions
• Problem is no longer one of technology availability/maturity
• Different outcomes reflect nature of organizations, incentive structures, and access to technical expertise and capital
• Technology-based service innovation is simply too hard for most transit agencies today
The Technology of Public Transportation: High Level Review
• Technological components of public transportation services
– Physical infrastructure--guideway/roadway, vehicles
– Operating strategy
– Control system
• Technology based service innovation can affect any or all of these components
• Flex route and DRT focus on changing the operating strategy and control system
• PRT requires changes in all components, not an incremental technology
Flex Route Service Concept
Flex route
Fixed route
Stop
DRT Service Concept
2
15
5
3
4
2
1
4
3
1
1
pickup
drop off
Platform Based Solutions Offer Hope
• Platforms are standard (and standards-based) technologies that provide a launch pad for specific applications,
• Examples of platforms
– HTTP/HTML
– TCP/IP
– Circuit switched telephone system, SS7
– Automobile
– Television
– Windows
– Palm OS
– GPS (global positioning system)
Platform Based Solutions Offer Hope
• Platforms facilitate the continual development of industrial strength applications
• Platforms eliminate the need to re-invent the solution each time, reduce the system integration burden
• Platforms are “pluggable”--new/improved applications can just plug in
An Example: Platform Requirements for Flexible Transit Services
• Complex control system distinguishes new generation flexible transit from conventional fixed route transit
• Components of control system platform for flex route transit
– Mobile data communications infrastructure
– In-vehicle computer with GPS capability and driver interface
– “Billing” hardware and software--optional
– Vehicle control and messaging software--the pluggable application
Platform Requirements for Flexible Transit Services
• One possible platform:
– Handheld computers/PDAs w/GPS as mobile computers/terminals
– Standard operating system in device (Palm OS, PocketPC)
– Wireless Internet for mobile communications infrastructure
– CDMA (3G by mid-2002) for mobile data transmission
– Vendor- and application-specific vehicle control and messaging software--the pluggable application component
• Not just theoretical--Detroit area coordinated DRT operation seriously considering implementation based on similar platform
Future Prospects for Automobile-Like Services
• Conceptually attractive because of higher level of service to user
• Economically problematic due in part to tailored service delivery
• Organizationally challenging to implement with the sophisticated control system needed to provide the high level of service
• Flex route transit services can play more important role in future if platform-based off-the-shelf control systems can be devised
• PRT will require large investments, prototypes and operational tests to demonstrate feasibility, classic chicken and egg problem
Top 5 Lessons from 30 Years of Experience with Service Innovation
• Market penetration is difficult, ridership expectations must be modest
• Transit agencies cannot be expected to be entrepreneurs
• Technological complexity and risk must not be significantly greater than installing office computer system and applications
• Platform-based technology solutions offer greatest promise for standardizing control systems for new generation services
• Pre-packaged solutions with track record of success are necessary for widespread replication of innovative services