Post on 12-Jan-2016
MacroeconomicEnvironment
Percent Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
03 II III IV 04 II III IV 05 II III IV 06 II III IV 07 II III IV 08
US Real GDP
Percent Change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
World Real GDP
Dollars per Barrel
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
US Crude Oil Spot Price
Annual Percent Change
-12%-9%
-18%
-11%
-7%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
EU Japan Brazil India China
04 05 06 07
Change in Value of US $
Cents per Bushel
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan
-96
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Corn Soybeans Wheat
US Crop Futures
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07e
Corn Soybeans Wheat
World Stocks-to-Use
International Market& Cotton Trade
Million Bales
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Net Imports Production Mill Use
China Cotton Balance Sheet
Million Bales
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Net Exports Production Mill Use
India Cotton Balance Sheet
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5
All Others 10.3 9.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9 All Others 6.7 6.5
Cotton Trade (Million Bales)
Importers 07/08 08/09 Exporters 07/08 08/09
Total 40.9 42.4 Total 40.9 42.4
China 13.7 16.7 India 5.8 7.1
Turkey 3.7 3.9 Brazil 2.9 3.3
Mexico 1.5 1.4 FSU 7.3 7.2
Oth Top 10 11.6 10.5 W. Africa 3.0 3.7
All Others 10.3 9.9 All Others 6.7 6.5
US 15.2 14.7
US Cotton Demand
Million Bale Equiv (Cal Yr)
0
5
10
15
20
25
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
US Cotton Retail Market
Million Bale Equiv (Cal Yr)
0
5
10
15
20
25
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Consumption Imports
US Cotton Retail Market
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
US Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year)
US Cotton Supply
2008 US Planting Intentions
2007
Actual
2008
Intentions
Percent
Change
Southeast 2,255 1,996 -11.5%
Mid-South 2,750 2,049 -25.5%
Southwest 5,122 5,021 -2.0%
West 411 252 -38.7%
Total Upland 10,538 9,318 -11.6%
ELS 292 231 -21.1%
All Cotton 10,830 9,549 -11.8%
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Upland ELS
US Cotton Production
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Abandonment Yield Deviations
Abandonment & Yield Variability
Million Tons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
US Cottonseed Production
Stocks & Prices
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Mill Use Exports Production
US Cotton Production & Use
Million Bales
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
US Cotton Ending Stocks
Million Bales
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Production Mill Use
World Cotton Production & Use
Million Bales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
China Outside China
World Cotton Stocks
Cents per Pound
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g-0
4
Dec
-04
Ap
r-05
Au
g-0
5
Dec
-05
Ap
r-06
Au
g-0
6
Dec
-06
Ap
r-07
Au
g-0
7
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Dec
-08
Nearby NY and A (FE) Index
Nearby NY
A (FE)
Cents per Pound
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g-0
4
Dec
-04
Ap
r-05
Au
g-0
5
Dec
-05
Ap
r-06
Au
g-0
6
Dec
-06
Ap
r-07
Au
g-0
7
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Dec
-08
Nearby NY and A (FE) Index
Nearby NY
A (FE)
Current futurescontracts
Implied “A”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08f
World less China World
Cotton Stocks-to-Use
83
63
58
71
91
79
72
59
5357
42
56
69
5256
59
73
86
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08f30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100World less China A Index
Cotton Stocks-to-UseA Index ¢/lbStocks/Use
Percent Change
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Growth in World Mill Use
Index (1995 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan
-04
May
-04
Oct
-04
Mar
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
Ap
r-06
Sep
-06
Feb
-07
Jun
-07
No
v-07
A (FE)
Cotlook Yarn
Asian Polyester Excl China
Fiber and Yarn Prices
Copies of the Economic Outlook Available at the Close of this Session