Looking Looking Ahead to Ahead to

2026: 2026: Trends in Trends in

Technology Technology and and

EducationEducationTrends in Trends in

Technology Technology and and

EducationEducationEDUCAUSE

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October 2015

ETH Zurich: “new ways to write [to] and read DNA”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/physics/reed-solomon-codes/

@amcafee this morning: "We kept finding examples of science fiction becoming reality."

3

Monthly environmental scan report

Trends identified, tested, projected

Four parts

1. Education contexts

2. Technology

3. Education meets technology

4. Muttering

Education contexts: trendsEducation contexts: trends

Education systems Reform movements (K-12, higher

ed, bipartisan) continue Rising student debt ($1.3 trillion) Alternative certification pilots

(competency, badges)

Global higher educationGlobal higher education

More international students heading to the US

International higher ed systems building up

US campuses expanding overseas presence

Contextual trendsContextual trends

Demographics: Youth population shrinkage,

esp. NE + midwest Ballooning senior

population…

10

Racial transformationRacial transformation

Education contextsEducation contexts

Economics: US labor changes› manufacturing->service› 1 job/career->many gigs› declining participation› Automation rising

Top and bottom vs middleTop and bottom vs middle

Enrollment changesEnrollment changes Spending less Swirling

Student population Student population changeschanges

Majority adult Increasing first-

generation students

Veterans Learning

disabilities

17https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/6708914025/

Enrollment decline?Enrollment decline?

Spending less per family

Education trendsEducation trends

Adjunctification rising

Bad forecastingBad forecasting

Inter-institutional collaboration (except SUNY)

Senior admin compensation

Intergenerational strife

Athletics are doing just fineAthletics are doing just fine

Technology trendsTechnology trends

Rise of the stacks

Post-Snowden

Hardware + networks: multiple ecosystems

Digitization

Technology trendsTechnology trends

digital video

cloud migration continues

automation and artificial intelligence

AR approach

New device ecosystemNew device ecosystem

Android battles iOS Wearable computing Very small cameras and

computers Internet of Things

Technology ecosystemTechnology ecosystem

Design for mobile *first *

PCs getting crowded out

Mouse and keyboard declining

3d printing mainstreaming

3d tv dying

Technology trendsTechnology trends

social media triumphing

3d printing3d printing

https://www.flickr.com/photos/collegeofsanmateolibrary/15373589050/

Away from physical mediaAway from physical media

Technology trendsTechnology trends

crowdfunding growing copyright battles continue open struggle ongoing durability of Moore’s Law office versus Web office

Did ebooks plateau?Did ebooks plateau?

Nicholas Carr, linked http://bryanalexander.org/2013/08/15/have-ebooks-plateaued/

Reading and/versus digitalReading and/versus digital

How much reading is being done?

How is digital reading different?

Literacies changing?

Weaker tech trendlinesWeaker tech trendlines

the limits of the Web onshoring hardware

production

3. Teaching and learning and tech3. Teaching and learning and tech

Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech

blended/flipped classroom

rise of the net.generation distance learning grows gaming in education

Teaching and learning and techTeaching and learning and tech

educational entrepreneurship

big data and data analytics develop

campus digital security threats growing

Uses of social media

Uses of Web video

Changes in the LMS world

Blended learning

Learning analytics

Changes in library role

Digital humanities (in classroom)

The rise of the Maker movement

US decline, Euro interest Credit for MOOCs? STEM vs humanities Sustainability? Morphology: xMOOC vs

cMOOC and now…?

Changes in scholarship Changes in scholarship

Open content Possible divide growing

between research and teaching Changes to the scholarly

publication ecosystem Rise of the digital humanities (as

scholarly work) The library role

Extrapolations: Transnational

campuses Average

student age: 40 Hourly faculty

Privatizing public universities

Hogwarts vs CCs

What comes next?What comes next?

What comes next?What comes next?

Rich multimedia environment

Increasing gamification

Student as producer

Disintegrated computing as a service

Extensive data analysis, surveillance, creativity

Which of these trends are the

most powerful?

Which of these trends are the most

unpredicatble?

http://bryanalexander.orghttp://bryanalexander.org

bryan.alexander@gmail.combryan.alexander@gmail.com

http://twitter.com/bryanalexander http://twitter.com/bryanalexander