Post on 28-Jun-2020
Look to the Future – Tomorrow's Career Trends Now
Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager
Labor Market Information Office
Labor market information (LMI)
• Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more.
• LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning.
What is labor market information?
Labor market information is any information about people, work and the job market:
Geographic area – where people work
Industry or business – who people work for
Occupation – what people do
Wages – how much they earn
Where to find LMI
www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/LMI
Post-recession recovery
• Employment continues to be in flux. – +34,700 more jobs in October 2012 than one year prior – Down 69,300 since Feb. 2008.
• There are still 174,000 unemployed Minnesotans.
• It’s still an employer’s market. – 2.6 jobseekers for every 1 job opening
• There is increased competition for jobs.
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Disparities in unemployment
• Unemployment rates among youth (age 16 to 19) in Minnesota are near 20%, the highest among all age categories.
• The unemployment rate for Black or African Americans (20.7%) exceeded that of White (5.6%) residents in Minnesota in 2011.
• Impact of long-term unemployment – One-third of Minnesota’s unemployed have been out of work
for at least six months.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Future shock
• The Center on Education
and the Workforce at Georgetown University reports that by 2018, 70% of Minnesota jobs will “require” postsecondary education.
• “80% of the jobs that kindergarteners will have in their lifetimes don’t exist yet.” –Ed Barlow
Report available at http://cew.georgetown.edu
Forecasting future job trends
• Minnesota’s economy will grow by 13%, or 368,000 new jobs, between 2010 and 2020.
• Over 663,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements.
• Employment changes depend on the demand for goods and services, productivity advances, technological innovations, and shifts in business practices.
www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/EO
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Assumptions
• Recovery from the steep job losses experienced between 2008 and 2010 will boost job growth in Minnesota during the next few years, but job growth will slow.
• Job growth over the next decade will average 1.3% a year, a pace similar to job growth experienced in 2011.
• The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2010-2020 national industry projections are: – GDP growth will average 3.0 % annually – Productivity growth will slow – U.S. labor force growth will slow – Unemployment will average 5.2% in 2020
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Health care will add the most new jobs in Minnesota between 2010 and 2020
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Employment growth by sector
• Health Care and Social Assistance (129,000 jobs; 32.7%) – Home Health Care Services (16,690 jobs; 89%) – Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (11,520 jobs; 68%) – Office of Other Health Practitioners (5,960 jobs; 50%)
• Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (24,800 jobs; 20.1%) – Management and Technical Consulting (5,770 jobs; 44%) – Computer Systems Design (6,130 jobs; 22%)
• Manufacturing (14,200 jobs; 4.9%) – Architectural and Structural Metals (2,430 jobs; 34%) – Wood Product Manufacturing (3,260 jobs; 31%) – Pharmaceutical and Medicine (920 jobs; 27%)
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit
Analysis and Evaluation Office
MN Industry Projections Employment Loss, 2010-20
-4000-3500-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000 -500 0
Air Transportation
Motion Picture and Sound Recording…
Printing and Related Support Activities
Semiconductor & Electronic…
Book, Periodical, and Music Stores
Wired Telecommunications Carriers
Ag Self-Employed
Federal Government, Excluding Post…
Local Government Elem. & Secondary…
Gasoline Stations
Computer and Peripherals Manufacturing
Department Stores
Postal Service
Office and sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Minnesota’s fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020
• Veterinary technologists • Biomedical engineers • Personal care aides
• Helpers – construction • Home health aides
• Marriage and family therapists
• Brickmasons and blockmasons
• Veterinarians
• Plumbers • HVAC mechanics and installers • Cement masons • Cost estimators
• Electricians • Diagnostic medical sonographers • Interpreters and translators • Mental health counselors • Meeting, convention and events
planners • Physical therapists • Market research analysts • EMTs and paramedics • Sheet metal workers • Medical secretaries • Medical scientists • Physician assistants
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Minnesota occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020
• Personal and home care aides • Home health aides • Registered nurses • Retail salespersons • Office clerks • Truck drivers • Fast food workers • Child care workers • Carpenters • Nursing aides • Customer service representatives • Laborers and stock movers • Licensed practical nurses • Social and human service assistants
• Receptionists and information clerks • Bookkeeping, accounting, auditing
clerks • Sales representatives, wholesale and
manufacturing • Janitors and cleaners • Electricians • Landscaping and grounds keeping
workers • Accountants and auditors • Maids and housekeeping cleaners • Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters • Market research analysts and
marketing specialists Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Skill and Knowledge Areas for “In Demand” Jobs • Skills areas projected to be
most utilized by future occupations: – Reading Comprehension – Active Listening – Speaking – Writing – Active Learning – Coordination – Monitoring – Instructing – Critical Thinking
• Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: – Customer Service – Mathematics – Clerical – Education/training – English – Sales/marketing – Psychology – Computers/electronics – Administration/management
Is there a skills gap?
• “We can’t find workers with the right skills.”
• “I meet nearly all of the requirements, but still wasn’t considered qualified for the job.”
• “Employers want me to know things that I could only learn on the job.”
• “How can I get experience if no one will hire me?”
Skills gap initiatives
MnSCU Workforce Assessments The sessions are being championed by the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce and local chambers across the state in cooperation with the DEED, the Minnesota Initiative Foundations, Minnesota State Colleges and Universities and other private, public sector and non-profit organizations. www.mnscu.edu/business/workforceassessment Skills@Work Skills@Work is led by Greater Twin Cities United Way and the Governor's Workforce Development Council. www.skillsatwork.org
The only reminder you’ll have of economics class today
Wage Supply Upward Wage Pressure W Vacancies Pressure on Hours Demand Employment QS QD
Consider the demand for workers
Is there evidence consistent with a shortage? – A large and increasing number of openings – Increasing hours by incumbent workers – Upward pressure on wages
Openings are up, but still lower than before recession
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MN Manufacturing Vacancies
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
So are hours, but comparable to ‘90’s
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US
MN
Avg. Hrs/Wk – Production Workers in Durables Mfg
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Wages having been growing very slowly
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Avg Annual Wage Growth – US Prod Workers in Durable Mfg
Consider the supply of workers
Is there evidence that those with education are faring better than those without?
– Unemployment by educational attainment – Occupational employment of educated individuals – Recent post-secondary graduates’ employment
outcomes
Percent change in unemployed by educational level in Minnesota, 2007 to 2011
50.3%
38.0%
67.0%
81.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Less than highschool graduate
High schoolgraduate
Some collegeor associate's
degree
Bachelor'sdegree or
higher
Assorted Occupations (Source: American Community Survey,
2010)
# with P.S. Ed
% with P.S. Ed
# with BA or higher
% with BA or higher
% JV Requiring
P.S. Ed. Bartenders 6,615 62.2% 1,391 13.1% 8% Food Preparation /Fast Food 3,050 36.7% 305 3.7% 0% Waiters and Waitresses 23,435 53.8% 3,873 8.9% 6% Janitors and Building Cleaners 21,607 34.0% 3,215 5.1% 3% Grounds Maintenance Workers 11,919 43.1% 2,492 9.1% 1% Retail Salespersons 56,529 64.9% 19,102 21.9% 0% Telemarketers 2,956 61.2% 661 13.7% 23% Insurance Sales Agents 9,976 81.0% 5,601 45.5% 4% Bill and Account Collectors 4,417 69.1% 904 14.2% 23% Customer Service Representatives 37,719 67.9% 12,100 21.7% 34% Office Clerks, General 17,947 68.2% 4,742 18.0% 26% Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs 2,659 52.4% 848 16.7% 0% Teacher Assistants 20,780 69.8% 6,858 23.0% 60% Cashiers 32,422 40.5% 3,899 4.9% 0% Total 231,425 53.8% 60,401 14.0%
Highly educated working in low skill jobs in Minnesota, 2010
Major (2009-2010 Completion)
Industry of Employment (Quarter After Completion)
Avg. Annual Wage
% Employed in Industry
Computer and Information Sciences
Professional Services $41,451 16.4% Retail Trade $17,660 13.0% Information $42,698 10.7% Manufacturing $50,695 10.2% Administrative Support (≈ temp help) $22,744 8.0%
Mechanical Engineering
Manufacturing $50,356 42.3% Management of Companies $37,744 9.3% Professional Services $45,299 9.3% Administrative Support (≈ temp help) $36,416 7.7% Wholesale Trade $34,828 7.2%
Welding Technology/Welder
Manufacturing $25,888 30.7% Administrative Support (≈ temp help) $19,057 20.9% Construction $36,942 16.9% Retail Trade $15,038 8.4% Accommodation/Food Services $6,701 4.4%
Where recent students are employed
Malemployment
• College degrees do generate positive earnings for graduates employed in a non-college degree occupation, but only 5% to 8% higher.
• College graduates are slightly more productive than their high school graduate counterparts in non-college degree occupations, within the constraints of the skill requirements.
Source: Paul Harrington and Andrew Sum, Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University
What about claims of a growing educational gap by 2018?
• In Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce claim that: – By 2018, we will need 22 million new workers with college
degrees—but will fall short of that number by at least 3 million postsecondary degrees
– 70% of all jobs in Minnesota (2.1 million jobs) will require some postsecondary training beyond high school in 2018
So why do employers have trouble finding qualified candidates?
• Employers’ definition of ‘qualified’ has changed? – This includes requiring very specific experience – Also requiring disparate skill sets – And requiring more years of experience
• Mechanisms for matching employers and candidates have changed, become less effective
• Job postings are often unattractive
• Worker immobility and housing market conditions may contribute
Some preliminary findings in support
• LMI is following up with firms reporting vacancies for: – Industrial Engineers and Technicians – Registered Nurses – CNC Operators and Programmers – Machinists – Materials Engineers
• Purpose is to explore the nature of difficulties in hiring in these specific occupations
• Study is underway and incomplete, but some early evidence can be considered
A majority (so far) do report difficulty
40.4%
2.3%
57.3% Yes
No
Question: did you have/are you having difficulties filling this position?
N = 171
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Of those reporting difficulty, why?
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Employers Speak
www.MnWorkforceNeeds.org
Some closing observations
• New labor force entrants, dislocated workers, and people in career transition will need to fill more than 1 million openings through 2020.
• Traditionally, high levels of education have been a hallmark of Minnesota residents. – Un- and underemployment of those with post-secondary education
is widespread.
• Recent market trends aren’t consistent with the existence of a shortage. – Data claiming increased shortages in the future are not clear.
Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit
Analysis and Evaluation Office
Minnesota is Aging
When will they retire?
How productive can they be?
Will there be enough?
Overall US Economic Growth Slows As Labor Force Growth Slows
Source: MN Office of the State Demographer
Aging will shift government priorities
An important distinction between current and future gaps
• Current Skill Shortage – exemplified by The Manufacturing Institute’s 2011 Skills Gap report claiming “that as many as 600,000 [manufacturing] jobs are going unfilled” due to lack of proper skills.
• Future Skill Shortage – exemplified by Georgetown University Help Wanted report claiming that “[b]y 2018, the postsecondary system will have produced 3 million fewer college graduates than demanded by the labor market.”
Other LMI products and publications
Minnesota Economic TRENDS Quarterly magazine on economic topics Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line
Minnesota Employment REVIEW Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends Available exclusively on-line
www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/Review
www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/Trends
Let me know how I can help
Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager
Labor Market Information Office Phone: (651) 259-7185
kyle.uphoff@state.mn.us