METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP

INDIA HEADQUARTERS

G 31 Quest Off ices

DLF Golf Course Road

Gurgaon 122 002 India

GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTER

SIDBI Innovation Center

Indian Inst itute of Technology

Kanpur 208 016 India

NORTH AMERICA

350 Fif th Avenue

59 th Floor, New York City

NY 10118 USA

Monsoon and Temperature OutlookLate Nov 2016

• The IRI/CPC ENSO outlook as on mid-November 2016 indicates that thetropical Pacific SST anomaly was slightly cooler than -0.5C, the weak LaNiña threshold (average Nino-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5 deg. C).Most ENSO prediction models indicate SSTs near or slightly cooler than thethreshold of La Niña during the remainder of fall, then weakening to cool-neutral by late winter. There is more than 50% chance that ENSO will stayneutral during southwest monsoon 2017.

• The cfs products based on 21 November 2016 show that the winterprecipitation over hilly regions of northwest India may be below longperiod average, especially in the months of December and February. Nosignificant departures from long period average are expected in thedistribution of monthly average precipitation and maximum & minimumtemperatures over remaining parts of the country.

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Mid-Nov IRI/CPC Model-based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

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Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Dec2016 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Jan2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Feb2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Max. Temperature Dec2016 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Max. Temperature Jan2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Max. Temperature Feb2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

Min. Temperature Dec2016 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Min. Temperature Jan2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

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Min. Temperature Feb2017 based on 20161121 cfsv2

METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP

INDIA HEADQUARTERS

G 31 Quest Off ices

DLF Golf Course Road

Gurgaon 122 002 India

GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTER

SIDBI Innovation Center

Indian Inst itute of Technology

Kanpur 208 016 India

NORTH AMERICA

350 Fif th Avenue

59 th Floor, New York City

NY 10118 USA

THANK YOU

Monsoon and Temperature OutlookLate Nov 2016