Post on 06-May-2015
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Beverley Henry, Ed Charmley, Richard Eckard,
John Gaughan, Roger Hegarty
Animal Theme
Livestock Production in a Changing Climate
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate– Adaptation– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Global agricultural land resources
>50% of the habitable area is at least 30% cultivated
Ruminant livestock production is the only practical food production on large areas of dryland systems – occupies 1/3 of global land surface.
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Land use for animal agriculture in Australia
Conservation and protected
21%
Minimal use16%
Grazing natural vegetation
46%
Improved pastures10%
Production forestry
1%
Dryland cropping,
horticulture3%
Other land use1%
Water2%
Land use in Australia 2005-06Total area 7,687,147 sq km
0
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1970
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Are
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Major agricultural land use in Australia
Non-crop Non-farm Wheat Other crops
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Livestock numbers in Australia
Milk cattle Meat cattle Sheep and lambs
Pigs Chickens for meat
Chickens for eggs
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isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Climate change impacts in Australia
Summary: The climate will be hotter and wetter or hotter and drier with higher CO2 and will most likely be more variable
• Temperature rise of 0.6 -1.5 ºC by 2030; 1 - 5 ºC by 2070.
• Annual rainfall change of -10 to +5% in north and -10% to 0 in south by 2030; -30 to +20% in north, central, east and -30 to +5% in south under 2070 high emission scenarios (A1FI) projected changes.
• Changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events including an increase in the number of hot days;
• Intensified water security problems with the frequency and extent of droughts projected to increase over most of southern Australia.
Source: CSIRO and Bom 2010
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Impacts of changing climate on livestock production systems
Changing climatic conditions will have four primary effects on animal agriculture:
1. feed-grain, production, availability and price;
2. pastures and forage crop production and quality;
3. animal health, growth and reproduction; and
4. disease and pest distribution.
Rötter and Van de Geijn (1999)
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate–Adaptation– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Impacts on pork & poultry industries
More variable climate effects:
Feed shortages
Reduced water availability
Higher input costs – energy, grain, fertilisers, bedding.
Higher temperature effects:
Heat stress
Summer infertility
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Pasture response to CO2
Cullen et al. 2009
Mean annual DM production response (%) to elevated CO2 (550 ppm vs 380 ppm baseline) for the baseline climate scenarios (1971-2000) at each site. The annual range of DM responses is in parenthesis.
Site Pasture species DM response (%)
Mutdapilly, Qld Rhodes grass 8.6 (-0.3-15.5
Barraba, NSW Native perennial grasses (C3 & C4) 17.1 (1.5-33.8)
Wagga Wagga, NSW Phalaris, subterranean clover, native C4 grasses 29.0 (22.5-37.5)
Ellinbank, Vic. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 23.8 (20.7-28.7)
Elliott, Tas. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 25.8 (21.9-30.0)
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Heat Stress impacts on production
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Adaptive management for heat stress and extreme events
FloodingHeat stress: Un-shaded cattle seek shade from feeder; Late afternoon panting score = 3.5
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate–Adaptation– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Savanna burning
16%
Agriculture soils17%
Residue burning0.3%
Manure management
4%
Rice cultivation0.0%
Livestock digestion
64%
Australia’s agriculture emissions
Agriculture ~ 15% emissions– 58% total methane– 76% total nitrous oxide
Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Australia’s climate change mitigation policy
• Carbon price– Proposal for fixed price (?$20/ t CO2 –e) from 1 July 2012 moving to
ETS in 2015-16; compensation for EITE
• Renewable energy– Renewable Energy Target of 20 per cent by 2020
• Carbon Farming Initiative– Land sector abatement– Kyoto and non-Kyoto offset credits– Expected start late 2011
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Monogastric livestock
• Manure management– Renewable energy generation technologies
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Beef cattleSheep
Dairy
Source: ABS & DA
Ruminant production in Australia
Beef
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
6-12% energy loss
Kurihara et al. 1999
Distribution of ingested energy in cattle
Producing 50–90kg methane/year is equivalent to 33–60 effective grazing days lost a year
The dilemma: Excess H means lower performance; Methane takes H out of the rumen
The challenge: Reducing methane emissions while increasing production
Ruminant methane emissions
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Mitigation technologies
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Low High
Imp
act
(% m
itig
atio
n)
Impact by 2030 (Probability)
“Silver bullet”
Rumen manipulation
Genetic selection
Dietary additives
Best management practices
Ed Charmley 2009
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Methane Mitigation Options
Short term– Feed quality (5 – 15%)
• Pasture improvement• C3 pastures, legumes
– Reducing unproductive animal nos. (10 – 15%)• Extended lactation• Earlier finishing of beef• Reproduction, fertility & health
– Dietary supplements• Grain (5 - 20%)• Tannins (13 - 29%)• Oils (5 - 25%)
– 1% fat = 3.6% decrease CH4 /kg DMI
Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Moate, Williams, Eckard et al. 2010
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Methane Mitigation Options
Medium Term– Animal Breeding (10 – 20%)
• Feed conversion efficiency• Reduced methanogenesis
– Plant Breeding (10-30%)• ME: CP ratio• Tannin, oils, fibre
Longer-term (>40%)– Rumen manipulation/ biological control
• Vaccination • Competitive or predatory microbes • Acetogenesis
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
C fluxes in beef systems
Ed Charmley CSIRO
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Savanna burning
16%
Agriculture soils17%
Residue burning0.3%
Manure management
4%
Rice cultivation0.0%
Livestock digestion
64%
Australia’s agriculture emissions
Agriculture ~ 15% emissions– 58% total methane– 76% total nitrous oxide
Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Nitrous Oxide
• Denitrification– Warm, water-logged soils– Excess NO3 in soil
• Nitrification– Warm, aerobic soils– Minor losses
• Inefficient use of nitrogen– Ruminants excrete 75 to 95% of N intake
• >60% lost
N fertiliser
Legumes
Excreta
Mineralisation
NH4 NO3 N2
N2O
Denitrification
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Increase of 24.3% in beef production 1990 to 2008
Increase of 16.2% in farm methane emissions 1990 to 2008
Decrease of 6.5% in methane per unit product 1990 to 2008
1500000
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f P
rod
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CW
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G (
t C
O2-
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f C
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Australian beef emissions intensity trend
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Increasing yield – producing more from less
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Research priorities
Capacity • Trained experts able to advise the farming community in:
– All aspects of climate science, adaptation, mitigation and sequestration management
– Climate change policies
Adaptation• Understanding direct and indirect effects of climate change
on animal production systems:– Direct effects on the biology of animals– Indirect effects on disease/parasite exposure– Indirect effects on feed quality via plant and soil systems– Water and energy use efficiencies for intensive livestock production
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Research priorities (2)
Mitigation• More efficient production of renewable energy from waste in
intensive systems• Practical on-farm options to reduce emissions without
negative impacts on productivity:– Improved accounting and quantification including emissions and
sequestration – Cost abatement curves for a range of mitigation strategies and
offsets– Whole farm modelling and LCA– Relationship between breeding for feed conversion efficiency and
methane and heritability of low methanogenesis– Sustained investment in rumen microbial manipulations– Reducing urinary N loss and managing indirect N2O loss
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
Conclusions
• Livestock production will make an ongoing contribution to Australian and global food and fibre supply
• Climate change will have significant impacts on animal agriculture through both the feedbase and animal response, particularly heat stress
• Options do exist to reduce emissions from livestock systems and emissions intensity appears the logical measure of GHG mitigation for animal agriculture
• Extensive ruminant production systems provide the only option for food production in large areas of rangelands, requiring efficient and sustainable resource management in a changing climate
isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
THANK YOUCo-authors Ed Charmley
Richard Eckard
John Gaughan
Roger Hegarty
Acknowledgements– Karen & Ian Litchfield and Dr Steve Little for the Cool Cows
Program Case Study– Dr Janine Price and colleagues of APL– Dr Brian Keating, CSIRO SAF for expert review– Australian Government Climate Change Research Program and
industry partners for funding for much of the research reported