Post on 28-Mar-2015
Life course perspectives on crime
combining quantitative & qualitative approaches
Barbara MaughanMRC SGDP, King’s College London
Institute of Psychiatry
Life course theory and research
• Aims– the study of human development and ageing
• Assumptions– development: dynamic interaction among
mental, biological & behavioural aspects of the individual
andphysical, social & cultural aspects of the environment
– biological, psychological and social factors influence life course pathways
throughout the life course
– continuity and change– equifinality and multifinality
Some key concepts
• Life course– age-graded patterns– embedded in social institutions and history
• Age / life stage– chronological, biological and social definitions
• Trajectories– sequences of roles/experiences
• Transitions in roles / states– leaving home, starting work, becoming a parent
• Turning points– experiences associated with lasting shifts in
trajectories
How well do long-term quantitative studies match these aims?
• Major advancesbut also
• Difficulties / limitations– tracking (multiple) trajectories / event histories– typically: variable-based approach to identifying
predictors– limited understanding of:
• heterogeneity in outcomes• contextual influences• meanings of events to participants• role of individual agency
• Can adding qualitative evidence help?
The specific problem:understanding the development of
crime
The Age-Crime CurveMen and women found guilty or cautioned per 100,000
population: England & Wales, 1997
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Nu
mb
er
pe
r 1
00
,00
0
po
pu
lati
on
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 . 21-24
25-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60+
Age (years)
Men Women
The specific problem:understanding the development of
crime• what accounts for:
• onset of offending• persistence in offending• desistance from offending
• extensive research• predominantly quantitative or
ethnographic• numerous theoretical models
Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance
• maturation / aging– desistance normative– largely unaffected by life-course events
• rational choice – reappraisal of costs/benefits of crime
• social learning– much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers– crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations
• developmental models– childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence
later course
The study: early origins(1930s and 1940s)
Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency: Sheldon & Eleanor Glueck 1950
• case control design– 500 delinquent males – 500 non-delinquents from same low income
neighbourhoods– matched on age, ethnicity & IQ
• 3 waves – ages 14, 25 & 32– extensive data on boys, their families and
early work, educational, occupational and relationship histories
The study: re-analysisCrime in the Making: Sampson & Laub, 1993
• reconstructed and re-analyzed original Glueck data• key messages (quantitative analyses)
– age-graded theory of informal social control– across the life-course, crime & deviance more
likely when bonds to society weak• childhood: family & school• But• adolescent & adult experiences can also redirect
trajectories• turning points: marriage & work• attachment to social bonds
Subsequent challenges
• Methodological– too variable-oriented
• required more person-based approach
– new quantitative developments• group-based trajectory modelling (Nagin)• dynamic approach to identifying sub-groups
• Theoretical– developmental taxonomy (Moffitt)
Moffitt’s developmental taxonomyMoffitt, 1993
0
2
4
6
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10
12
14
childhood onset / life course persistent
Adolescent onset
Age
The study: follow-up to age 70Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Laub & Sampson, 2003
• Aims– address challenges– refine own theoretical model
• Methods– criminal record searches– death record searches– life history interviews with purposively selected sub-
samples
– interweaving of qualitative & quantitative data and analyses
Quantitative analyses of offence data
• Latent class trajectory modelling– is the age-crime relationship invariant across
• offenders?• offence types?
– is any variability explainable by childhood factors?
Latent class models of offending trajectories
property crime ages 7-70Laub & Sampson 2003
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
pre
dic
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of o
ffenc
es
Age (years)
Quantitative analyses of offence data
• Latent class trajectory modelling– age-crime relationship varies across
• offenders• offence types
– variability not entirely explainable by childhood factors
• What accounts for variations in persistence/desistance?
Life history interviews
• tracing– re-located 79% of prior delinquents known to be alive age 70
• purposive sampling– contrasting groups, based on quantitative (crime) data
• response– 66% of those available for interview
• interviewed– desisters (n=19)
• juvenile but not adult convictions– persisters (n=14)
• juvenile & adult (including post age 32) violent convictions– ‘zig-zag’ criminal careers (n=19)
• late (post-32) onset violence• adult (post-17) onset violence• intermittent offenders
Life history interviews
• life history calendar to place major events– interviewer and study participant work together– visual aid, focusing on multiple domains
• aids recall• helps clarify inconsistencies
– focus on sequences, not isolated events– contextualizes events– can use personalized markers (birthdays, illnesses etc)
• open-ended interviews– life history in range of domains– evaluations of lives– self-defined turning points
• reliability of accounts checked against existing records
Understanding desistancequalitative accounts
• combination of– individual agency (choice)– situational contexts / structural influences
• by product of other changes• 4 major self-described turning points
– reform school– military service– marriage / partnership– neighbourhood change
• core features– ‘knife off’ past from present– provide
• social support / emotional attachmentbut also• structured daily activities• monitoring and control
– opportunities for identity transformation
Understanding desistancequalitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003
Turning points
• ‘I’d say the turning point was, number one, the Army. You get into an outfit, you had a sense of belonging, you made your friends. I think I became a pretty good judge of character… There’s no question that the fittest survive, and you have to learn to get along with everybody’. (p 132)
• ‘The thing that changed me was marriage. That turned me right straight down the line. She won’t put up with any baloney. Well, if you’ve got a job you’re supposed to do what the boss wants. I call her the boss. No, we’re both the boss, [but] she’s got more head than I have. She’s got more schooling, she knows more. And I agree with her’. (p 134)
Understanding persistencequalitative accounts
• backgrounds similar to desisters• validity of accounts?
– substantial ‘cover-up’ rare
• core themes– not individual characteristics / traits instead– lack of ‘connective structures’ at each stage in life
course– failure in school & military – residential, marital & job instability leading to– continued exposure to situations conducive to crime– downward spiral– awareness of missed opportunities
Understanding persistencequalitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003
• ‘My entire record is stealing cars and armed robbery… it was so easy and money was so scarce… I couldn’t find a good job. And I couldn’t find a job where I could learn a trade. And I didn’t have no education. So I did the only thing I could’. (p 151)
• ‘What got me off track was when I came out I stayed with my sisters for a while and it was hard. Then I just took off. I never came back. I quit my job and I went from one friend to another friend. I didn’t want to impose on anyone’. (p 166)
• ‘She wanted to get away from him so she came with me and lived with me. We got married and then the bills started piling up and I just got in trouble again. I couldn’t make it. So we started stealing and robbing and I got myself back in prison. And she divorced me. I was only married a very short time, probably nine months. I tried to straighten out but I couldn’t. I was in too deep’. (p 159)
Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance
• maturation / aging– desistance normative– largely unaffected by life-course events NO
• rational choice – reappraisal of costs/benefits of crime NO
• social learning– much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers– crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations
?
• developmental models– childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence later
course NO
Understanding desistanceadditional quantitative analyses
• interviews suggested particular adult states associated with reductions in crime risk
• re-coded record and interview data to reflect age-years of – marriage / employment / military service– crime– incarceration
• hierarchical linear models
• changes in ‘event-rate’ of crime– systematically associated with adult role transitions – men less likely to be criminal in states of marriage etc– state of marriage: 40% reduction in rate of offending
– ie quantitative analyses support conclusions from qualitative data
Overview
• Theory-rich area– many (often competing) models– qualitative and quantitative approaches typically
distinct• Example
– integration of qualitative element into predominantly quantitative study
– aim: to refine theory• Approach
– reciprocal use of qualitative and quantitative elements throughout
– sampling derived from quantitative data• same individuals involved in both elements
– records used to check ‘history’ aspects of interview accounts
– qualitative data prompted new approach to quantitative analyses
Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches in life
course studies
• Advantages– highlights role of individual agency– grounded in social & historical context– reveals person-situation context:
• meanings of events to individuals• variations in meanings at different life-stages• how events structure later life course
– reveal complexity in patterns of continuity/change