Post on 03-Jan-2016
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
NEW ZEALANDPART 4: VOLCANOES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND DISASTERS IN NEW ZEALAND
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANOES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s Restlessness is Caused by Heat Flow, Which Causes Subduction of Some Tectonic Plates, which Causes:
Volcanic Eruptions
NEW ZEALAND HAS SOME OF THE GLOBES 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOESNEW ZEALAND HAS SOME OF THE
GLOBES 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
NEW ZEALAND: LOCATED ASTRIDE TWO CONVERGENT TETONIC PLATES
New Zealand is in the southwest Pacific Ocean astride the “ring
of fire,” a distinct belt of volcanic and earthquake activity
that surrounds the Pacific Ocean
To the north of New Zealand and beneath the eastern North Island, the thin, dense, Pacific plate moves down beneath the thicker, lighter Indo-Australian plate in a process known as subduction.
SUBDUCTION BENEATH THE NORTH ISLAND CAUSES VOLCANOES
NEW ZEALAND’S VOLCANOES: (VICINITY OF THE NORTH ISLAND)
SOME OF NEW ZEALAND’S VOLANOES
TAUPO
WHITE ISLAND
TONGARIRO
RUAPEHU
THE 140 SQ KM AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD
AUCKLAND: COEXISTING WITH A VOLCANO FIELD
AUCKLAND VOLCANIC FIELD
• The Auckland volcanic field underlies much of the metropolitan area of Auckland.
• Now dormant, but considered likely to erupt again, the field's many vents have produced a diverse array of explosion craters, scoria cones, and lava flows in the past.
AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD
AUCKLAND VOLCANO FIELD
ONE TREE HILL: AUKLAND VOLCANO FIELD
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
VOLCANO HAZARDS:
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
• TSUNAMI (sometimes)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANO INTERACT WITH
THE VULNERABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW
ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANO INTERACT WITH
THE VULNERABLE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF NEW
ZEALAND’S COMMUNITIES
NEW ZEALAND’S CITIES
LATERAL BLAST
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES
CAUSES OF RISK
CAUSES OF RISK
CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, landslides,..) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A DISASTER:
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A DISASTER:
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
NEW NEW ZEALAND’S ZEALAND’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES EARL WARNING AND EVACUATION STRATEGIES ARE ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
• ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE
NEW ZEALAND’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE
• ---BUT, IT IS ALWAYS A WAITING GAME WITH A VOLCANO.
NEW ZEALAND’S HISTORIC VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
New Zealand’s volcanic history dates back 60-130
million years, ranging from supervolcanoes to today’s activity consisting of minor
eruptions every few years as a result of NZ’s location in
the Pacific Ring of Fire
NEW ZEALAND’S PAST ERUPTIONS
• New Zealand has been the site of many large explosive eruptions during the last two million years, including several of the supervolcano size.
• Notable eruptions include: Macauley Island, Taupo, Whakamaru, Mangakino, Reporoa, Rotoura, and Haroharo.
TAUPO VOLCANO
• The Oruanui eruption, 26,500 years ago from the Taupo volcano, was the world's largest known eruption in the past 70,000 years, with a VEI of 8.
TAUPO VOLCANO
• Most of New Zealand was covered with ash that reached 18 cm (7 in) at the Chatham Islands 1,000 km (620 mi) from the volcano.
TAUPO VOLCANO
• Subsequent erosion and sedimentation had long-lasting effects on the landscape, causing the Waikato River to shift from the Hauraki Plains to its current course through the Waikato to the Tasman Sea.
.
TAUPO VOLCANO
• Lake Taupo, New Zealand's largest lake, now fills the caldera formed in this eruption.
NEW ZEALAND’S RECENT VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Even if future eruptions are minor, the people of New
Zealand are still at high risk from the ash fall, lahars, and
tsunamis associated with them.
RUAPEHU
• Ruapehu's 1945 eruption dammed its crater with tephra, which contributed to the Tangiwai disaster of December 24, 1953 when the Tangiwai railway bridge across the Whangaehu River collapsed from a revitalized lahar, killing 151.
RUAPEHU
• Ash plumes from Ruapehu's 1996 eruption forced the closure of eleven airports, including Auckland’s International Airport.
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT