LECTURE L24THE FUTURE

“Optimism is a strategy for making a better future. Because unless you believe that the future can be better,

you are unlikely to step up and take responsibility for making it so.” - Noam Chomsky

Predicting the Future

BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke

THE FUTURE WILL BE FANTASTIC

Image: wikipedia.org

This is how computers worked in 2000

Douglas Adams in 2001

Stuff that works

“The most profound technologies are those that disappear”

— Mark Weiser

WE EMPHASIZETECHNOLOGY

BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT

HOW WILL THIS TECHNOLOGY CHANGE PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOR?

1900

REVOLUTIONINSCIENCE–EINSTEIN,CURIE,FREUD,BOHR,TURING

BROADCASTCULTURE–RADIO,MOVIES,TV,SITCOMS

ANALOG–RECORDS,CASETTES,FILM,BOOKS,CD,DVD

INDUSTRIAL

FACTBASEDEDUCTION

2000 2100

WHATWILLTHE FUTUREBE?

Source: http://insurancethoughtleadership.com/the-five-charts-on-insurance-disruption/

WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH

72 YEARS AGO

47 YEARS AGO

39 YEARS AGO

35 YEARS AGO

32 YEARS AGO

Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons

26 YEARS AGO

THE CAR AT 26 YEARS

12 YEARS AGO

9 YEARS AGO

6 YEARS AGO

1900

REVOLUTIONINSCIENCE–EINSTEIN,CURIE,FREUD,BOHR,TURING

BROADCASTCULTURE–RADIO,MOVIES,TV,SITCOMS

ANALOG–RECORDS,CASETTES,FILM,BOOKS,CD,DVD

INDUSTRIAL

FACTBASEDEDUCTION

2000 2100

THETHIRDINDUSTRIALREVOLUTIONENDOFCONTROLEVERYTHINGISDIGITALTHERISEOFSOFTWAREARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEINFINITECOMPUTINGROBOTICS3DPRINTINGSYNTHETICBIOLOGYDIGITALMEDICINENANOMATERIALABUNDANCESUPERMAGNETS

Smartphone

RevolutionsMainframes

1947

Minicomputers

1965

PC

1981 1995

Internet

2007

The Smartphone era is ending - what is next?

SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD

INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE + 3 BILLION COMING ONLINE

COMPUTERS,PHONES,DEVICES

ARE JUST GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD

Nine Important Technology Trends

The technology part is usually not difficult to understand

The nature of what the technology can do to change people’s behavior is much more difficult for people to understand

3-5 years into the future is no problem - its safe to ignore

The “now” is the challenge

Think About This

Remove the technology and understand the behaviour and what is changing it

SoLoMo1

THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD

4 billion people are buying new smartphones every two years

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

7.5 trillion SMS message sent each year globally

WhatsApp, an app that was built by a team of 30 people and acquired by Facebook for $19 billion, processes 7.2 trillion messages a year

If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobile

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD

And we are talking about apps not mobile web - its not a technical questions

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD

SOCIAL IS CHANGING THE WORLD

Doing business has changed in a fundamental way

Real time has taken over

Now you have to listen 24/7 and act immediately - there is not time to wait for a board meeting

ADAPTIVE TO YOU - LOCAL

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

Analysing you for better service in crucial

The gatekeepers are replaced with algorithms

That can be good or that can be bad

REVOLUTIONS

REVOLUTIONS

Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks2

20TH CENTURY SOCIETY WAS HIERARCHAL

Governments structure

Corporation structure and interaction of companies

Coordination cost is high

21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK

Software connects individuals

Coordination drops towards zero

NETWORK ECONOMY

Twitter takes over real-time news

Youtube takes over videos, lectures, how-tos, entertainments and LOL cats are invented

Anybody can be a producer

21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK

“Sharing economy”

Coordination cost is lowRating systems replace inspections

Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost

Digital Transformation3

USING COMPUTER IN THE INFORMATION AGE

You sit down and use the comptuer

You use the software for your work

The computer is a tool just like any other tool

USING COMPUTER IN THE DIGTIAL AGE

Now the computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do

Real-time Algorithms - from using to being used

The roles have switches - the algorithms are using us

What is happening to most businesses is not only online offering of products and services

It the transformation of old established physical way of doing business into new ways that are optimized around real-time software systems

This is called Digital Transformation

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

Software is becoming the change agent of all business

If the internet has not disrupted a business, it will

Traditional industries like retail, shipping, banking, insurance, law firms, health and the list goes on…

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

https://www.venturescanner.com/

Internet of things4

Internet of Things — $15 trillion by 2025https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/06/what-is-the-internet-of-things-google

Physical components comprise the product’s mechanical and electrical parts

Smart components comprise the sensors, microprocessors, data storage, controls, software, and, typically, an embedded operating system and enhanced user interface

Connectivity components comprise the ports, antennae, and protocols enabling wired or wireless connections with the product

Smart Connected Things

WAREABLE REVOLUTION

Things you carry on you, that measure you with sensors or augments you perception

Smartwatches seems to be the “big thing” of wearables

Wristbands that interpret sign language

T-shirt from DigInfo Two that measures heartbeat

3D Printing5

$2 trillion by 2025

REVOLUTION IN MANUFACTURING

Huge disruption in design, prototyping and manufacturing goods

Mass manufacturing suddeny is not the only way

Cost of production drops dramatically

Anybody can create stuff - personalise stuff

Printing Drugs

Personal drugs

Robotics6

Robot Manufacturing — $10 trillion by 2025

Robotic in the 21st century

Robots that see, hear and sense

Robots that can communicate

Powerful machines with software and internet connectivity

Robots that learn

Drones - robots that fly

The Self-driving Car7

Self-driving Cars an $10 trillion by 2025

There are 3.5 milliontruck drivers in the US

Self driving delivery Robot

The Physical blends with the Digital8

AUGMENTED REALITY

Overlaying digital over the physical

Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc will fundamentally change

VIRTUAL REALITY

Completely enter the virtual world

Gaming, learning, travelling, exploring, movies, entertainment, porn, etc will fundamentally change

Virtual Reality for training and better information

Machine Learning9

AI Knowledge Work — $25 trillion by 2025

WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?

What about wars, global warming, terrorism, inequality, poverty,..?

Peter Diamandis Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk

NOW ISTHE TIMETO BEOPTIMISTIC ABOUT THEFUTURE

“I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.” ― Mark Rosen

New Technology 2016

New Technology 2016