Pending Home Pending Home SalesSales

NAR 03/2011

Return on InvestmentReturn on Investment

Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate

Series 1 15 -5.4 -30 38.8

15

-5.4

-30

38.8

-40

-20

0

20

40

60 (January 1, 2000 – July 1, 2011)

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates –– 30 year fixed30 year fixed

Federal Reserve

4

4.25

4.5

4.75

5

5.25

National Public Radio (NPR)National Public Radio (NPR)

“I think the arithmetic is such that if you plan to live in your home five or more years, then you should really consider buying a single-family home in most parts of the country at this point in time.”

NPR 6/8/2011

For Many, It's A Good Time To Buy A Home

– Mark Zandi, Moody’s Economy.com

CBS Money Watch.comCBS Money Watch.com

“No, that’s not a joke…this may be a once in a generation buyer’s market.”

CBS Money Watch 6/8/2011

Real Estate: Why the Time to Buy Is Now

Macro Market Survey 06/2011

Home Prices Moving ForwardHome Prices Moving Forward

-3.52

0.49

2.182.92

-7.5

0.5

2.6

3.7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2011 2012 2013 2014

Macro Market Survey JP Morgan

JP Morgan 6/09/2011

“Housing is more affordable than it’s been in a generation. I think it is a good time to become a home owner because it’s so affordable today compared to where it’s been for generations.”

CNN 7/03/2011

It’s Time to BuyIt’s Time to Buy

- HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan

Supply & Demand

National Home Price Change (2008 to 2011)

National REO Saturation (2008 to 2011)

REO Saturation and Prices

Clear Capital

NAR

40%37%

31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

March April May

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Washington Post 6/30/2011

Foreclosure DelaysForeclosure Delays

NY Times 6/19/2011

Foreclosure DelaysForeclosure Delays

90+ Delinquencies and Foreclosures

4,084,557

Delinquencies & ForeclosuresDelinquencies & Foreclosures…outnumber foreclosure sales by a ratio of

50:150:1

LPS 6/2011

Window of Window of OpportunityOpportunity

"That is a very big wild card ... how quickly these foreclosures are released on the housing market, and that is a difficult thing to predict. We do expect foreclosures are going to rise over the next several quarters with the fastest pace occurring toward the end of this year.”

– News Tribune 6/28/2011

News Tribune 6/28/2011

“The key to the near-term outlook is the change in the share of sales of distressed homes, known as REO sales. As this share increases, the proportion of discounted home sales will also increase, causing house prices to fall.”

– Moody’s Analytics

Celia ChenCelia Chen

“The slow resolution of issues surrounding the so-called robo-signing scandal is keeping distressed homes off the market. As a result, the housing correction will take a little longer …House prices will flounder until early next year and start rising in earnest at the end of 2012.”

– Celia Chen

Moody’s Analytics 6/17/2011

PricesPrices

“The delicate supply/demand balance will continue to be challenging for the remainder of this year and into 2012. Comparing housing inventory (supply) and existing home sales (demand), we can see that not only is the pace of demand important but so is the conversion of shadow inventory into real inventory.”- JP Morgan

JP Morgan 6/09/2011

PricesPrices

Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 06/2011

Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Appreciation -3.52 -3.03 -0.85 2.1 5.71

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Cumulative Appreciation

140

145

150

155

CME Group 6/11

Feb ‘12Feb ‘12

Projected BottomProjected Bottom

August PriceAugust Price

Apr ‘13Apr ‘13

Case Shiller Future PricesCase Shiller Future Prices

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

2 Pending Sales http://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdata

3 Return on Investment (Prices) http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/us

3 Return on Investment (Stocks) http://money.msn.com/

4 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

5 NPR http://m.npr.org/news/Business/137029194

6 CBS Money Watchhttp://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/feature/real-estate-why-the-time-to-buy-is-now/6244377/

7, 19 JP Morganhttps://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=2312-1F54&u=a_p*d_607595.pdf*h_-2gh4fcf

7,21 Macro Markets http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp

8 HUD’s Donovanhttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/03/obamas-housing-chief-nows-the-time-to-buy/

14 Foreclosure Delayshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/foreclosure-backlogs-taking-longer-to process/2011/06/30/AGuWdksH_graphic.html

15 Foreclosure Delayshttp://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/06/19/business/19foreclosuregraphic.html?ref=business

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

16 Inventory to Saleshttp://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/ResourceCenter/PressResources/MortgageMonitor/201105MortgageMonitor/LPSMortgageMonitorMay2011.pdf

18 Celia Chenhttp://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/06/28/1724764/home-price-index-rises-but-more.html

24%

21%

20%

18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25%

Would rather give up sex

Would rather do their taxes

Would rather go to the dentist

Presentation Boredom Presentation Boredom

Fannie Mae National Housing Survey

96%96%of Homeowners See Homeownership of Homeowners See Homeownership as a Positive Experience. as a Positive Experience.

of Americans Say Home Ownership is an of Americans Say Home Ownership is an Important Part of the American Dream.Important Part of the American Dream.

New York Times and CBS News Survey

88%88%

of Americans Agree that Buying a Home of Americans Agree that Buying a Home is the Best Long-Term Investment.is the Best Long-Term Investment.

Pew Research Center

81%81%

69%69%

Gallup Poll

of Americans Say Now of Americans Say Now is the Time to Buy.is the Time to Buy.