Kay MetcalfKay MetcalfNOAA GOES DCS Program ManagerNOAA GOES DCS Program Manager

Office of Satellite Data Processing and DistributionOffice of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service

GOES DCS:NOAA RISK

MANAGEMENT PROJECTS FOR THE

GOES DCS

2

WHY IS RISK MANAGEMENT NECESSARY?

§ 28,000 PLATFORMS ASSIGNED

§MOST ARE FOR EMERGENCY WARNING CAPABILITY–LIFE OR DEATH APPLICATIONS

§SOMETIMES THE ONLY MEANS OF COMMUNICATION OR WARNING FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

–PACIFIC ISLANDS

–CARIBBEAN

–CENTRAL AMERICA

–SOUTH AMERICA

§LOW COST, LOW MAINTENANCE FITS MOST BUDGETS

§EMERGENCY WARNING AGENCIES IN U.S. DEPEND ON GOES DCS

§USERS HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERN IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS

3

RISK Identification(As Identified by STIWG)

§DAPS FAILURE§PILOT FAILURE§WALLOPS GROUND SYSTEM FAILURE§INABILITY TO MEET CAPACITY DEMANDS§LACK OF AWARENESS OF CRITICAL APPLICATIONS BY NOAA MANAGEMENT

4

MITIGATION TECHNIQUES

§ATTEMPTED ONE BIG PROJECT:

–RESULT: FAILURE

§MULTIPLE SMALLER PROJECTS

§MODULAR APPROACH

–TRY SOMETHING AND MAKE SURE IT WORKS

–MOVE ON TO NEXT STEP

5

DAPS FAILURE

§RISKS

–1989 VINTAGE SYSTEM

–INCREASING NUMBER OF FAILURES

–DIMINISHING SERVICE EXPERTISE

–REPLACEMENT PARTS MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND

§MITIGATION

–LRGS SYSTEMS FED FROM DAMS-NT

–DADDS READY TO DISSEMINATE DOMSAT & NWSTG

• TESTED

• HAS PERFORMED WELL IN RECENT CRITICAL FAILURES

6

DAPS FAILURE…CONTINUED

§LONG TERM STRATEGY

–DADDS FUNCTIONALITY BASED ON DIGITAL DEMODULATORS

–DEVELOP MODULAR FUNCTIONALITY

–EXPAND TO FULL DAPS REPLACEMENT SYSTEM

–PROJECTED TIME FRAME 2007-EARLY 2008

7

DADDS FEATURES

§ENHANCED SIGNAL PROCESSING CAPABILITY

§BETTER MONITORING OF INDIVIDUAL PLATFORMS

§BETTER OVERALL SYSTEM VIEW

§DATA-BASE FOCUS ALLOWS EASIER QUERYING AND REPORTING

§BETTER GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION

–CHANNEL ASSIGNMENTS

–CHANNEL ACTIVITY

–ERROR CONDITIONS

–PLATFORM PERFORMANCE

–SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

8

PILOT FAILURE§RISK

–EQUIPMENT IS AGING–PERCEIVED UNIDENTIFIED FLUCTUATIONS

§MITIGATION–NOAA IS ANALYZING PILOT STATUS AND PILOT PERFORMANCE

–NO FORMAL PLAN YET–EMERGENCY PILOT CAN BE OPERATED FROM WBU

• NOT TESTED OR CERTIFIED§LONG TERM STRATEGY

–POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIO• MULTIPLE PILOTS AT MULTIPLE FREQUENCIES

FROM MULTIPLE LOCATIONS

9

Wallops Ground System Failure

§RISK–SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE OF GRAVE CONCERN TO USERS

§MITIGATION–NOAA BACKUP PLANS

• ENOUGH EQUIPMENT ON HAND TO DEPLOY FULL CHANNEL BACKUP

• DADDS SOFTWARE CAN BE REPLICATED WHEN READY

• PARTIAL BACKUP CAN BE DEPLOYED IN FEW MONTHS

–LONG TERM STRATEGY• AS DADDS EXPANDS BACKUP WILL BE

EXPANDED

10

Wallops Ground System Failure(Continued)

§MITIGATION–USER BACKUP PLANS

• EDDN BEING DEVELOPED BY USGS• COOPERATING WITH OTHER DCS USERS TO PROVIDE COMPLETE DATA STREAM WHEN NECESSARY

§LONG TERM STRATEGY–STIWG AGENCIES WILL COOPERATE TO SUPPORT EDDN TO SUPPORT ALL USERS

–NOAA SUPPORTIVE OF THIS CONCEPT

11

INABILITY TO MEET GROWING CAPACITY DEMANDS

§RISK

–GROWING NUMBERS OF NEW USERS AND APPLICATIONS, AND INCREASED NUMBER OF PLATFORMS/OBSERVATIONS/SENSORS FOR EXISTING USERS

§MITIGATION

–100/300 AUTO DETECT FOR CAREFULLY SELECTED CHANNELS

–HDR TRANSITION WELL UNDERWAY

–MORE EFFICIENT ASSIGNMENT STRATEGIES

–CERTIFICATION FOR NBT ALMOST COMPLETE

• LONG TERM REALLIGNMENT WILL DOUBLE CHANNELS

§LONG TERM STRATEGY

–CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE WAYS TO MAKE MORE EFFICIENT USE OF BANDWIDTH

12

INSUFFICIENT UNDERSTANDING OF CRITICAL DCS APPLICATIONS

BY NOAA MANAGEMENT§RISK

–USE OF GOES DCS FOR EMERGENCY WARNING HAS GROWN IN USER COMMUNITY WITHOUT FULL AWARENESS BY NOAA

§MITIGATION–NEW NOAA DCS STEERING GROUP (DSG) AT MANAGEMENT LEVEL TASKED WITH EDUCATING NOAA AND NESDIS ABOUT CRITICAL USES

§LONG TERM STRATEGY–EDUCATE NOAA MANAGEMENT, IMPROVE STRATEGIC PLANNING AND SUPPORT FOR GOES DCS