JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING

JOINT TASK FORCE TRAINING

Course of Action Analysis

Course of Action Analysis

PurposePurpose

Define course of action analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process

Discuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA

analysis Provide lessons learned from previous

exercises and operations

ReferencesReferences

AFSC Pub 1, The Joint Staff Officer’s Guide,1997

JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, Feb 95

JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 99

JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 93

CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97

Crisis Action Planning Process

Crisis Action Planning Process

CRISIS

ISituation

Development

IICrisis

Assessment

IVCourse of

ActionSelection

VExecutionPlanning

AND/OR

IIICourse of

ActionDevelopment

IMission Analysis/Restated Mission

IVComparison of OwnCourses of Action

IIIAnalysis of Opposing

Courses of Action

VCommander’s

Decision

IICourse of Action

Development

Commander’s Estimate Process

OPORD

Deployment Data Base

VIExecution

PlanningOrder

AlertOrder

WarningOrder

ExecuteOrder

Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis

The purpose of course of action analysis is to “evaluate

each proposed friendly COA as though opposed by

each enemy capability. This series of wargaming

exercises illustrates that the commander considered

the most significant and influential confrontations.”

AFSC Pub 1, 6-38

Determine the probable effect of most likely enemy COA on the success of each friendly XO

Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion– By time phasing– Geographic location– Functional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons

down

Analysis of Opposing COAsAnalysis of Opposing COAs

Consider conflict termination issues; think through own action, enemy reaction, counteraction

Conclude with: – Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility– Determine additional requirements– Make modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Analysis of Opposing COAs (Cont)

Analysis of Opposing COAs (Cont)

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Task StepsTask StepsGather theTools List

Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

WargamingMethod

RecordingMethod

Wargame & Assess

RiskAssessment

RevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Gather the ToolsGather the Tools

Friendly COAsEnemy COAsJoint operations area (JOA) depictionRepresentation of friendly and enemy force

distributionRepresentation of environmental/civil conditionsSynchronization MatrixAction-Reaction-Counteraction matrixIdentify and review existing limitations

Task StepsTask StepsGather theTools List

Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

WargamingMethod

RecordingMethod

Wargame & Assess

RiskAssessment

RevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

List AssumptionsList Assumptions

List the assumptions delivered during

mission analysisValidity:

– Is the assumption necessary?– Will the result change without the assumption?

Logical, realistic, stated positively

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

List Known Critical Events and Decision Points

Critical events are essential tasks

that require detailed analysis

Decision points identify decisions the

commander must make to ensure timely

execution and synchronization

Time available for analysis affects

length of the critical events list

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Select Method of Wargame for Analysis

Select Method of Wargame for Analysis

Computer Assisted– Integrated theater management model– Tactical warfare model– Joint conflict model

Manual– Deliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasing– Critical events

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Select Technique to Record and Display Wargaming

Techniques– Narrative technique

– Sketch and note technique

– Wargame matrix

Considerations– Assets available

– Time available

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame & Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Wargame the Operation and Assess Results

Wargame the Operation and Assess Results

Visualize the flow of operations

Assess the JTF performance two echelons down

“Action-Reaction-Counteraction”

Synchronization MatrixTIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT

ENEMY ACTION

DECISION POINTS

CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER

OPN FIREPOWER

OPN PROTECTION

OPN INFORMATION

OPN INTEL

OPN SUPPORT

ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC

AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC

JSOTF

OTHERS

FUNCTION

JOINT

AREAS

COMPONENTS

D-DAY/H-HOUR

D + 1 D + 2

Simplified Sync MatrixACTOR

JTF

ARFOR

NAVFOR

AFFOR

MARFOR

JSOTF

JPOTF

EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT

Sample Wargame Worksheet

SEQ-UENCENUMBER

ACTION RE-ACTION

COUNTER-ACTION

ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT

CCIR REMARKS

CRITICAL EVENT:

Action/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTION REACTION COUNTERACTION

C141 landingCity X

Riot

SAM hit inbound

DOS and JTF LNO w/ localpoliceEvac late night Local securityDeceptionPSYOPSEvac late nightECM if not optical trackGround SAR from embassyAbort liftDOS appeal to X Govt formilitary securityEvac by helo, ground

Advantages & Disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Ops

Weather restriction

Security is HN Force

Ability to pick up outlying areas

Advantages & Disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Ops

Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport2. Branch: ARFOR QRF to threatened areas3. JSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees

Weather restriction

Security is HN Force

Ability to pick up outlying areas

Results of WargamingResults of Wargaming

Identification of advantages and disadvantages of

each friendly COA

Identification of additional assets required (if any)

Refinements or modifications to the COA

Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each

geographic location or functional event

Adjustments to any established control measures

Wargaming Results (Cont)

Wargaming Results (Cont)

TPFDD requirements

Synchronization requirements

Estimate of the duration of critical events as

well as the operation as a whole

Required support from outside of the JTF

Requirements for logistic support

Clear picture of command relationships

branches and sequels

Wargaming Results (Cont)

Wargaming Results (Cont)

Critical information required to support decision points

Additional commander’s decision points

Measures of effectiveness for each phase

Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance

Identification of component tasks

Task Organization requirements

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action Analysis

Conduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk Assessment

Identify risks

Assess risks

Analyze acceptability of risk

Identify ways and means of risk mitigation

Task StepsTask StepsGather Gather theToolsTools ListList

AssumptionsAssumptions

Critical EventsCritical Events& Decision Points& Decision Points

WargamingWargamingMethodMethod

RecordingRecordingMethodMethod

Wargame Wargame & Assess& Assess

RiskRiskAssessmentAssessment

Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

RevalidateRevalidate

Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the

mission when carried out successfully, In other

words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

Feasible: Do we have the required resources and

can those resources be made available in time?

Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish

the mission and we have the required resources, is it

worth the cost in term of possible losses (military,

time, political, etc.)?

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first, or this will take forever.

Wargame the endstate and transition. Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged

down. First cut thoughts only. The purpose of wargaming is to identify

advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions.

During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?