Species at risk protection:

Jeremy T. Kerr

Department of Biology

University of Ottawa

Understanding links with

ecosystem integrity

Outline

Very brief introduction to two aspects of global change

Land use change and species endangerment in Canada

Ecosystem integrity and species at risk challenges:

land use perspectives

climate change: a new axis for ecosystem integrity

1. Initial observations

2. Subsequent model

development and testing

3. Powerful, unequivocal

secondary predictions.

Climate change

Each dataset uses longterm data

Land use change Habitat loss is globally pervasive and a leading cause of

extinction. There are few wilderness areas left.

Anthropocene: reshaping global energy and material

cycling to serve human needs. Our footprints are deep.

http://geoserver.isciences.com/DataBlog/?p=25

Agricultural land uses are primary

determinants of terrestrial

species endangerment.

Causes of species endangerment

Kerr & Deguise 2004

Kerr & Cihlar 2003

Is there enough habitat for

species at risk to recover?

Many terrestrial species (n = 243) have little remaining

habitat, based on satellite-based

land use/land cover data for

Canada.

(Kerr & Deguise 2004 Ecol. Lett.)

There is little

remaining habitat for

many species, limiting

recovery potential.

Can we restore habitat to

permit species at risk

recovery?

• If habitat losses reflect urbanization, restoration will

be challenging and more frequently impractical.

• Agricultural land uses are vastly more extensive than

urban areas ...

• ... but

• ... urban areas are concentrated in Canada’s

biodiversity hotspots, so urban impact is

disproportionate.

% intersection of agriculture with SAR range % intersection of urban with SAR range

Coristine and Kerr, 2011

Consequences of habitat loss? `

After Kerr & Cihlar, Ecol. Appl. 2004

Kerr & Cihlar 2004

• Restoring habitat in agricultural areas: the first frontier for

land-based species at risk recovery.

• HOW:

• Determine economic value of agricultural lands based on

total agricultural capital or reported agricultural income.

• Determine conservation value by counting numbers of SAR

that were historically present in each “planning unit” across

Canada.

• Maximize conservation benefits while minimizing economic

costs of accessing lands to begin restoration work.

• Solution for Total agricultural capital: all species included in “new” protected areas.

• Priorities for restoration and subsequent

stewardship in the context of a respectful dialog

with private landowners.

• Targeting the least profitable agri-lands for

restoration permits larger benefits per $.

All analyzed species benefit

Few species benefit

Replace the capital

Replace the income

(annually)

• Canada’s habitat loss challenge:

• 1. Many species have virtually no remaining habitat

• 2. Agricultural land conversions are vastly more extensive than urban

areas.

• 3. We can accomplish a lot with relatively small expense and effort.

Landsat imagery for the best

remaining area in Carolinian

Canada

Climate changes

Changes in minimum winter temperature.

Kerr et al. 2007. Science.

Spatial models can

predict range shifts

through time

These changes represent a different threat to ecosystem

integrity. Is this threat relevant to species conservation?

Climate change and EI

• Predictive ability of projections are

good through the 20th century.

• Models of some species are

unreliable through time.

• We can predict geographical

responses to climate & land use

change.

• Predicting climate change impacts on

Canadian biodiversity must take a

multi-species approach.

Kharouba, Algar, Kerr, Ecology, 2009

“Edge”

populations of

today are the

core populations

of tomorrow.

For some species groups, geographical responses to

climate change have been dramatic.

Species are not tracking climate change fully where

climate is changing fastest (Bedford et al. 2012).

Climate change diminishes ecosystem integrity and

its effects must be mitigated as part of conservation

and restoration efforts for SAR.

Climate change and

ecosystem integrity

Engagement: increasing

public stake in conservation Can keep track of species and map their distributions.

And observations from an engaged public are

providing insights into the effects of climatic “mood

swings”.

ebutterfly.ca a new way to see how butterflies are affected by

different aspects of environmental change

f

Conclusions

Ecosystem integrity is altered by land use change and

climate change.

Both climate and land use changes exert large,

predictable impacts on biotic intactness. Failure to

mitigate negative consequences causes extinctions.

Expanding public engagement with conservation

increases momentum for conservation and the political

costs of inaction or reversal of past protections.

Acknowledgments

Carolyn Farquhar and the Institute of the Environment

for organizing this conference.

To the many members of my research group and

collaborators around the world: Max Larrivee, Shawn

Leroux, Heather Kharouba, Adam Algar, especially.

Discovery Grant support through NSERC.