January 2019 issue th - Waves Strategy Advisors · 2019-04-08 · Waves Strategy Advisors Website:...

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Nifty outlook: Nifty has continued to move precisely as expected and as per the path shown in the previous monthly update. Prices followed the direction very well. Let us see if this time as well it works the way we are showing it with one minor push on upside post which the downtrend to resume. Just in case markets remain sideways for next 10 trading days it will suggest that post Diametric pattern there is small wave x and some steam is still left before we turn down. January as per seasonality is known to be the month for making important tops and so it is best to look for sell on rallies as of now unless we decisively break above the zone of 11000 – 11100 levels. Outlook on DJIA: DJIA – US major index has shown important top formation in the second half of 2018. This index has shown a very deep correction after coming close to 27000 on upside. This time the global markets will be synchronized and majority might be simply surprised or rather shocked to see sudden reversal on downside across the global indices and different asset class. So, keeping a close tab on DJIA is going to be important over next few weeks! Long term analysis on Infosys: Infosys has been moving higher keeping its pivot supports intact which indicates that we can expect the stock to head further higher. The Elliott wave perspective & Time Cycle perspective also sums up to the conclusion that further upmove can be witnessed and hence one can accumulate this stock on dips for capturing the move towards higher levels. COMEX Gold: COMEX Gold has been moving in an overlapping fashion after witnessing a steep fall from 1800 levels. However, from past few weeks some recovery is being witnessed. It is best to use any dips as buying opportunity in this asset and any doldrums in global equity markets might provide further positive thrust to this asset class. Dollar index: The Dollar Index post making a low near 88 levels during the start of 2018 showed recovery against the other currency pairs. Positive price action can be expected and a move towards 100 followed by 104 can be expected eventually. One should keep an eye on 92.50 as it is going to provide very strong support. This is also in sync with our outlook on Gold, USDINR and equity markets. Mutual Fund section: Find out how we select outperforming Mutual Funds which could give us amazing returns with the help of Basic & Advanced techniques.

January 2019 issue 8

th January 2019

The Financial Waves Monthly Update – January 08, 2018

Figure 1: Nifty Monthly chart Nifty weekly chart

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

85Relative Strength Index (56.5365)

123 4Wave 3 = wave 1Next low

19th Jan

60 days Time cycleOOOO

2008 Top 2010 Top

2015 Top

2018 Top

9 months

months

Target 9016

4105 points

1807 points

2294 points

2735 points

11 months

copyright, January 2019

Waves Stratetgy Advisors

www.wavesstrategy.com

NSENIFTY (10,881.70, 10,923.60, 10,628.65, 10,727.35, -135.20)

Figure2: Nifty weekly chart

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

semilog scale[A]

Copyright, December 2018

Waves Strategy Advisors

NSENIFTY (10,913.20, 10,923.60, 10,628.65, 10,727.35, -132.551)

Figure 3: Nifty daily chart– Anticipated on 7thDecember 2018

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar

3 days

Copyright, December 2018

55 days Time cycle

Diametric pattern

NIFTY (10,718.15, 10,722.65, 10,588.25, 10,601.15, -181.750)

Figure 4: Happened

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 Feb Mar Apr

3 days

Copyright, January 2019

55 days Time cycle

Diametric pattern

NIFTY (10,699.70, 10,741.05, 10,628.65, 10,727.35, +55.0996)

Figure 5: Nifty weekly chart–Head & Shoulder

2014 A M J J A S O N 2015 A M J A S O N 2016 A M J A S O D 2017 A M J A S O D 2018 A M J A S N D 2019 A M J J A S O

100.0%

copyright, January 2019

Shoulder

Shoulder target 8830

NIFTY (10,913.20, 10,923.60, 10,628.65, 10,727.35, -132.551)

Figure 6: Relative comparative chart

In the previous monthly update we mentioned that “Nifty can move as per the path shown in figure 4. Prices are now in short term downtrend and break above the resistance of 10740 levels might result into retest of recent high near 10940 or higher in the zone of 11000. This is not necessary and it is best to look for shorting opportunity as we approach near the resistance levels. However, next few days of price action is very crucial. In case of sharp decline below 10440 the bigger degree correction will resume below 10,000. One should be prepared for increase in volatility with state election outcome due over next few days as markets are already in corrective phase which is normally associated with high volatility.”BANG ON! Nifty has continued to move precisely as expected and as per the path shown in the previous monthly update. Prices followed the direction very well. It was mentioned that break above the resistance of 10740 levels might result into retest of recent high near 10940 or higher in the zone of 11000. Nifty touched intraday high of 10985 on 19th December 2018 and reversed back on downside from there. The reversal was sharp and fast and Nifty lost more than 450 points in just 3 days of time. Again there was some re-attempt to retest the upper end of the range. So we can clearly see that the zone of 10920 – 10980 has been tested again and again but only to fail and give a close above the psychological 11,000 mark. Monthly chart:Nifty had a big swing in month of December as expected and prices formed a low despite BJP losing all the states in the assembly elections and there was a sudden resignation given by then RBI governor Urjit Patel. Nifty formed a low on the same day and reversed back sharply. We clearly mentioned in daily research that the up move is no surprise as one leg was pending on upside and this is a classic proof which shows events do not move the markets but it follows its own independent path as per Elliott wave patterns. December month formed an outside candle with high near 10985 and the low near 10333. This month so far has continued to be inside the prior monthly candle. Decisive break above 10985 will be a positive sign whereas break below prior monthly candle near 10333 will be strongly bearish. Neo wave pattern:In December 2018 issue following was mentioned - As we saw expansion in the first few legs there is possibility of contraction pattern over next few days or couple of weeks. However, volatility will be higher within the range and so one should trade with caution unless wave (b) completion is confirmed. Small trades can be taken during this scenario… This is how Nifty behaved and we continue to move in the form of wave b as of now. As we have been mentioning in the daily research report there has been expansion during the first few swings and now we are witnessing contraction. This is a classic indication of a Diametric pattern which has expansion followed by contraction. It is faster retracement of the last rising segment which will provide two stage confirmation that the Diametric pattern is over and the bigger downtrend is starting. For this to happen we now need faster retracement below 10628 which is the recent lows. Relative Strength Comparative –We are showing relative strength of Nifty with respect to various sectors and compared them in the figure 6. The starting value 0 is taken as last week of October 2018 when major index Nifty and Sensex formed an important low and completed wave (a). Post that we are seeing wave (b) ongoing and relative comparison gives a stark contrast among two major sectors that are drastically underperforming –Metals and Pharma. Each of these sectors have infact continued to deteriorate even when Nifty is higher by more than 6% since October

2018. Nifty Metal index is giving a negative return of 7.15% whereas Nifty Pharma is negative by 5.60%. The sector that was the main culprit for the collapse in Nifty during September – October decline Financial Services and Realty has given 10.52% and 10.44% respectively. They are on top of the ladder and has outperformed the major index. This can be contributed to the fact that stocks in these sector corrected sharply on back of pessimism and now they have shown retracement of the those declines. Many of the Financial Services stocks like Bajaj Finance, IBULL Housing Finance, LIC Housing Finance looks to have arrived near the resistance zones and are showing good distribution pattern. So, over next few weeks we can expect some mean reversion to take place where the sectors that have outperformed might start showing underperformance and move lower whereas the sectors that are oversold like Metal and Pharma might show some pullback to relieve the indicators. So over next few days keep a watch on leading sector Financial Services, Bank Nifty, Realty. Apparent weakness in them will be a first warning sign that we are turning lower again. Time cycles:The red Time cycle shown in Figure 4 continues to be in sell mode. The low as per this cycle will be due only by 3rd

– 4th week of January and so we will turn bullish only once the cycle lows are in place. Until than the ongoing move can be in corrective phase and time consuming. Break below support levels is important at the same time to increase the selling pressure. In a nutshell, Nifty can move as per the path shown in figure 4. Over past few months Nifty has behaved exactly as expected and followed the trend shown very well. Let us see if this time as well it works the way we are showing it with one minor push on upside post which the downtrend to resume. Just in case markets remain sideways for next 10 trading days it will suggest that post Diametric pattern there is small wave x and some steam is still left before we turn down. January as per seasonality is known to be the month for making important tops and so it is best to look for sell on rallies as of now unless we decisively break above the zone of 11000 – 11100 levels. Understanding the movement of DJIA – US major index is extremely important as the Global markets are getting synchronized. See the detailed charts below:

Figure 7: DJIA Weekly chart

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

(b)(x)

v(iii)

Expanding structure

Copyright January 2019

wavesstrategy.com

(c)(d)

(g) 26500

114 Week's Time Cycle

DJ Industrial Average (23,474.26, 23,687.74, 23,301.59, 23,531.35, +98.1895)

Figure 8: DJIA Daily chart

DJIA – US major index has shown important top formation in the second half of 2018. This index has shown a very deep correction after coming close to 27000 on upside. Later it failed to take out 26500 and the selling pressure intensified. There is a possibility that a very important top might have been formed in US markets. We are already reading news about Nasdaq Composite that tracks technology stocks have entered into a bear market. It is therefore important to look at DJIA to understand if the global markets are going to show synchronized selling pressure in 2019. As shown on weekly chart, post making a high near 26951 prices showed a sharp fall on the downside indicating that an important top is formed over the medium term. Wave (g) is completed on the upside and the next leg on the downside in the form of wave (a) looks to be on going. Prices have broken the multi-month upward sloping blue channel and are sustaining below same which keeps the overall bias negative as long as we do not see prices re-entering the channel. 114 weeks’ Time Cycle: The 114 Week’s bottoming Cycle has been working extremely well in capturing the major lows. Post the low near 2012 which was also the cycle low up move was witnessed. The next low was towards the end of 2013. The recent low was towards the start of

2018 post which prices witnessed an upmove. Now this cycle has topped out because the low which was formed on 6th April 2018 near 23340 is already broken. As per cycle theory a low if taken out in the first half of the cycle it indicates that a bigger degree cycle has turned down. So the top near 26950 might not be taken out until mid of 2020 which is when the next cycle low is forming. As shown on daily chart, prices have completed minute degree wave a on the downside and wave b on the upside is ongoing. The downward sloping red channel is working well and prices the arriving towards the resistance trendline. Post completion of wave b on the upside we can expect the next leg on the downside in the form of wave c. Now break below the support near 22600 will be a strong indication that the downtrend is resuming. On the upside an important resistance over the short term is placed near 25500. As long as this high is protected any pullback will be temporary. In a nutshell, DJIA index looks to have topped out for months to come. On upside one should keep a close watch on 25500 levels and on downside 22600 levels. Break below 22600 will indicate termination of wave b on upside and start of wave c on downside which will provide good shorting opportunity for a trend towards 21500 and much lower levels. This time the global markets will be synchronized and majority might be simply surprised or rather shocked to see sudden reversal on downside across the global indices and different asset class. So, keeping a close tab on DJIA is going to be important over next few weeks! Long term analysis on Infosys

Figure 9: Infosys Weekly chart

1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

wavesstrategy.com

227 Weeks Time Cycle

INFOSYS TECHNOLO (666.950, 682.800, 662.350, 671.150, +10.4000)

Although Nifty Index showed fall in the month of September some IT biggies like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, etc. managed to hold their positions with little fall. Infosys has been moving higher keeping its pivot supports intact which indicates that we can expect the stock to head further higher. Elliott wave perspective: As shown on the weekly chart, the stock has shown an amazing impulsive rise and since 2003 it has been in a multiyear bull trend. The wave perspective indicates that, Cycle degree wave 1 completed in the year 2000; post which we saw some consolidation and lacklustre move in the form of wave 2. This cycle degree wave 2 completed its course in the beginning of the year 2009 and since then we are seeing wave 3 ongoing which is further subdividing. Within Cycle degree wave 3, primary degree wave iv completed near the low of 426 levels post which wave v began on the upside and has continued to move amazingly well. The other possibility is also that wave iii itself is subdividing and we can see extension. Time Cycle perspective: Time cycles are another amazing technique which helps in capturing highs and lows of the stocks. Every stock has its own Time cycle and here we are showing 227 Weeks’ bottoming Time cycle which has worked extremely well in capturing major lows. The last low was formed in August 2017 near the low of 426 levels exactly where we completed primary degree

wave IV. Currently the cycle is in its 72nd week which is still in buy mode and further upmove in prices are expected. Channelling technique- We are showing upward sloping channel which is connecting the lows of 2009, 2013 & 2017 and prices are moving precisely within the channel. We witnessed a throw over (penetration of upper trendline) in the month of September 2018 but prices moved back within the channel this shows how important the ongoing channel is and hence some consolidation cannot be ruled out. Currently the prices are quoting near the channel resistance; hence we can expect some sideways move inorder for prices to make some room for it to move higher. Move towards 600 can be used to create long positions for a trend towards 720 levels. Conclusion- The stock has showed amazing move over the years and some consolidation cannot be ruled out. However, use this as a buying opportunity from medium term perspective. Similarly the Elliott wave perspective & Time Cycle perspective also sums up to the conclusion that further upmove can be witnessed and hence one can accumulate this stock on dips for capturing the move towards 720 or higher levels. Important support is placed near 600 levels which come near the modified blue channel support. What is up with Gold and where is it headed?

Figure 10: MCX Gold weekly chart

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

wavesstrategy.com

Alt: x

alt: a

105 weeks cycle

Alt: w

GOLD-1M (31,529.00, 31,758.00, 31,448.00, 31,648.00, +192.000)

Figure 11: COMEX Gold weekly chart

COMEX Gold has been moving in an overlapping fashion after witnessing a steep fall from 1800 levels. However, from past few weeks some recovery is being witnessed. Let us see if Gold now starts to glitter! Interestingly the chart of MCX Gold and Comex Gold is very different. This has been primarily due to the movement in Indian currency – USDINR. Gold in INR terms has shown strong outperformance due to depreciating Rupee. We have shown detailed Elliott wave pattern for both Gold in INR and USD terms. Elliott wave perspective: COMEX Gold is now under Complex Correction pattern which is further subdivided into wave w-x-y-x-z. As of now wave (W) has completed on downside and wave (X) is ongoing on upside. Prices are forming Flat correction pattern within this wave (X). Minor wave (a) showed a smart rally from 1050 levels making a high near 1370 levels. Post wave (a) overlapping movement is being witnessed in form of wave (b). If break above 1360 is witnessed it will indicate termination of wave (b) on downside and start of wave (c) on upside. This wave (c) will take prices towards 1400 levels or probably higher. It seems that the downtrend in global equity markets might provide positive strength to Gold which will act as a safe haven asset. 100 Exponential Moving average: This 100 weeks EMA has been able to capture major moves of COMEX Gold and it has been working amazingly well. It was acting as resistance when prices witnessed a fall from the highs of 1800 levels to 1050 levels. However, from past 2 year prices have failed to show trendy move in either direction and were whipsawing this EMA. Though it is now acting as support near 1260 levels and the same might remain protected over short term. MCX Gold: Gold in terms of INR has continued to move higher and has been moving in the blue channel. However, we are yet to see a strong trend here but overall tone has been bullish. There is possibility that we are in Terminal wave 5 and therefore there is corrective rise. We will keep this as the preferred scenario and move above 32500 will further validate our positive outlook. This combined with independent outlook on COMEX Gold suggest positivity. In short, Gold overall tone looks to be bullish both for MCX and Comex. It is best to use any dips as buying opportunity in this asset and any doldrums in global equity markets might provide further positive thrust to this asset class. For MCX Gold we can expect break above 32500 to take prices towards life time high levels near 35000 where it will gain majority media attention and they will then justify why it is glittering again!!! What is the trend for US Dollar? Using Dollar index to gauge the overall currency trend!

Figure 12: Dollar Index Weekly chart

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3540455055

606570758085

Relative Strength Index (63.3054)

7172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106

100.0%

wavesstrategy.com

95 weeks cycle

DOLLAR INDEX (97.1300, 97.1600, 96.3700, 96.9500, -0.24001)

The U.S. dollar Index is an important indicator as the movement of lot of things is dependent on it. The Dollar Index post making a low near 88 levels during the start of 2018 showed recovery against the other currency pairs. The question now remains that if the Index will be able to sustain the upmove or not. For this it becomes crucial to understand the technical view of the same. Elliott Wave perspective: Post completion of Triangle pattern prices witnessed a strong upmove in the form of wave A and completed Zig-Zag Correction Pattern near the high of 104 levels with the completion of wave C. Post that down move was witnessed in the form of wave X near channel support. The current upmove looks to be in the form of minute wave a. We can expect some sideways action in the form of wave b post completion of wave a. Prices have retraced back 61.8% of the prior fall and now a move towards 76.4% can be expected which comes near 100 over the short term. 100-weeks Exponential Average- prices have moved above the 100 periods Exponential Moving Average and the Average is recently providing a good support over the short term. As long as we do not see a close below this Average the trend remains positive. Prices have recently witnessed upmove post taking support near the same. Channelling Technique: The multi-year upward sloping blue channel has been working extremely well and we have seen prices bounce back from the support trendline multiple times previously.

Prices witnessed an upmove recently from the support trendline which also coincides with the Cycle low. Time cycles 95 weeks: The 95 week cycle has been working extremely well and has been accurate in capturing major lows. Recently post the low near 88 levels which was exactly the cycle low upmove was witnessed. In a nutshell, we continue to think that US Dollar index has been moving higher in the form minor wave a. Positive price action can be expected from here on and a move towards 100 followed by 104 can be expected eventually. One should keep an eye on 92.50 as it is going to provide very strong support. This is also in sync with our outlook on Gold, USDINR and equity markets. It is normally observed that rally in Dollar index will put pressure on emerging market currency pairs as well. Therefore INR might depreciate which might help Gold prices further to increase. Also weakness in Global equity markets will result into rush to safe haven and majority will start buying US Dollar. So January 2019 is going to be an important month where we will see synchronized movement between Currency, Commodity, Gold, Equity markets. Gold and Dollar index rally will be looked upon as safe haven whereas other commodities, Crude oil can continue to correct sharply…. Mutual Funds - Where to Invest now? Axis Long Term Equity Fund – Growth Daily Chart

2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

45Top Holdings

Equity PE% ASSET%

HDFC bank 30.12 8.80

Tata Consultancy 25.19 8.29

Kotak Mahindra Bank 34.97 6.79

Pidilite Industries 59.12 6.40

Maruti 27.95 5.77

Asset Allocation (%)

Equity 97.94

Debt 2.06

Cash / Call (0.14)

Axis Long Term Equity Fund - Growth (42.8968, 42.9711, 42.8968, 42.9711, +0.16300)

Axis Long Term Equity Fund –Growth is an open ended Equity Linked Saving Scheme [ELSS] which has a lock in period for 3 years. This scheme is ranked 2 in ELSS category by CRISIL. Taxation: This fund aims for “SHARE LESS SAVE MORE”. This fund helps the investors to get tax rebates under section 80 C of Income Tax Act. Portfolio Analysis: The major holdings of this fund are into Banking and Automotive sectors. Below is the table shown of Top Holding & Sectorial allocation of this fund: Top Holdings:

Company PE % Assets

HDFC bank 30.12 8.80

Tata Consultancy 25.19 8.29

Kotak Mahindra Bank 34.97 6.79

Pidilite Industries 59.12 6.40

Maruti 27.95 5.77

Sector Allocation:

Returns as on 03rd January, 2019

Performance Returns(%)

1 Year 2.93

2 Year 11.40

3 Year 20.02

Risk: This fund has concentrated exposure to sectors especially Banking/Finance with diversified risk across different sectors. It is better to eye for long term investment in this fund. Fresh investments should be done in form of SIP only with time horizon of three years or more.

Technical Perspective: As shown in the above daily chart, post the completion of wave 2 near 30 levels prices exhibited a sharp move on upside and currently intermediate wave 3 is ongoing. On downside as long as the blue channel is intact trend will be positive. Move towards 50 can be expected with support now shifted towards 39 levels.

Investment rationale: Axis Long Term Equity ELSS scheme can move higher over medium term. One should continue to do investments through SIP to generate the greater wealth along with tax saving. Invest NOW in Axis Long Term Equity Fund online – Click here

Announcement –Register for the upcoming training on Neo wave, Time cycles, Ichimoku Cloud, program with Ashish Kyal, CMT and learn indepth trading strategies. To register simply call / whatsapp us @+91 9920422202 or write to us helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com The Financial Waves Monthly Update is published by Waves Strategy Advisors having registered address at 302, Karishma Plaza, Commercial Premises Society, Pushpa Park, Daftary Road, Malad East, Mumbai 400097, Tel: +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202. Email: research@wavesstrategy.com, Website: www.wavesstrategy.com. All contents are copyright © 2018 Waves Strategy Advisors. Reproduction, retransmission or redistribution in any form is illegal. To know about various products, charges and offerings please visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com/pricing-plans/Thisresearch is usually published first week of every month and all its contents are written by AshishKyal, CMT unless otherwise stated.

Sector %

Banking& finance 37.93

Automotive 14.36

Technology 8.29

Chemicals 6.40

Cons durable 4.78

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Disclosures:

Waves Strategy Advisors (“Firm”) is SEBI registered as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations,

2014. SEBI Registration number: INH000001097. The Firm, its partners, employees, and associates have not been debarred/

suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

The Firm, its partners, employees, and associates including the relatives of the Partners,

do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the company subject to research analysis (“Subject

Company”);

do not have any material conflict of interest with the Subject Company;

has not received any compensation or monetary benefit of any nature from the Subject Companyduring the past twelve months;

has not served as a client, employee, director or officer of the Subject Company;

has not been engaged in any market making activity for the Subject Company

has not received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any

investment decision. The Firm does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views

expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any

trading or investment decision. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deemed necessary to

arrive at an independent evaluation of an trading / investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document

(including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an

investment.

The Firm, its affiliates, directors, partners its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions. The views contained in this document are those of the Firm and the research analyst engaged in preparing the

research report, and the client may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within and the client has the right and option to

not follow or put reliance on recommendations they are not agreeable to.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable

sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this

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