InvestigatingthechallengesofelectricmobilityandV2GintheNordic

GERARDOZARAZUA DERUBENS ANDLANCENOEL, RESEARCHERS, AARHUSUNIVERISTYFEBRUARY1, 2018NORDICELECTRICVEHICLESUMMIT2018

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Scopeofstudy17citiesacrossthefiveNordicCountries:Denmark,Iceland,FinlandSwedenandNorway

257expertsinterviewedof201organisations

~5000surveyrespondents,50focusgroupparticipantsand126cardealershipvisits

Team:alsoincludesBenjaminSovacool (Lead)andJohannesKester

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● OEMS and Transport: Nissan, Renault, BMW, Volvo, Volkswagen, NEVS, Linkker (bus), HSL, Ruter;● Government: 10 Federal Ministries, 17 Municipalities (Kommunes)● Utilities & Operators: Fortum, Virta, Clever, E.ON, Vattenfall, Statkraft, ON Energy, ABB, Elenia, Schneider Electric● TSO and DSO: Statnet, Energinet, Fingrid, Landsnet, Troms Kraft Nett● Industry: Nordpool, Siemens, Nuvve, PostNord, ASKO, IBM, Microsoft, PostNorge● Associations: Dansk Elbil Alliance, Norsk elbilforening, Norsk Petroleuminstitutt, PowerCircle, Finnish Energy● Research & Consulting: Bellona, Insero, Concito, Ramboll, VTT, Tekes, Sito, NTNU, Enova, Poyry.

CentralbarriersforEVs•Range - Howmuchdowereallyneed/want?•PriceoftheEVs- highercosts,lackofsubsidies,taxstructure•ConsumerwillingnessandknowledgeofEVs- Teslaand…?•OEMscomparativelyworsebusinesscase(toconventionalcars)•Charginginfrastructurechickenandeggproblem?•Fragmentationofpolicy&development(technologicaluncertainty)•Lackofpoliticalmotivationandwill

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-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

RangePrice

PublicChargingMentalBbarriers

ApartmentChargingTaxationofEVsGridIntegration

WeatherConditionsPoliticalwill

ChargingtimeHome,workchargingTechnologybarriers

BatteryenvmtlimpactBatteryDegradation

PublicchargingstandardsOEMProductioncapacity

RawMaterialsModelType

Procurementstrategy

Currentlyabarrier Explicitlynotabarrier Soonwon'tbeabarrier

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EVnexus&Brandrecognition

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NordicStock ExpertMentions SurveyMentions FocusGroupMentions

Tesla Nissan VW BMW Renault Opel Hyundai Kia

Adealershipbottleneck?•CardealershipsposeasignificantbarriertoEVs• currentEVincentivesareunsubstantialvs.petrol/dieselvehicles(exceptw/Norway)

• lackofbusinessviabilityofEVsinrelationtopetrolanddieselvehicles

•OutsideofNorwayonlyin2.9%ofcustomerswould’veoptedforanEVoption

•In77%visitsthesalespersondidnotdiscusstheexistenceoftheirbrand’sEV

•Governmentandindustrysignalingandpromotionareevidentatthepointofsale

• significantdifferencesinmarketconditions

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InfluencingthelikelihoodofEVpurchase•Themostsignificantfactors= dealer’sorientationtosellEVsandthedisplayedEVknowledge

•EVsalesincreasewhensalespersonsincludetheminsalesconversations

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OptionsforimprovementGovernmentlevel Industry- businesslevel

• ReducethenetgapbetweenEVsandICEVs,asw/outitthereisnoincentivefordealerstosellthemoreexpensiveEVs

• RobusttrainingschemesthatimprovesEVknowledgeandconfidenceofselling

• Incentivestotargetcapitalcostasopposedtocostofownership

• OperationalisedEVsaleprocessesthatimprovesellingtoolsanddeliverytimesofproducts

• Incentivestorevisecommissionandcompensationschemestoincreasethesalespersonnel willingnesstoengagew/EVs

• Linkagebetweencustomerandsalespersonsknowledgecampaigns(marketing<->training)

DefiningV2G•Vehicle-to-Grid(V2G)isatechnologythatconnectsEV’sbatterytoprovidebidirectionalstoragetotheelectricitygrid

•RequirescommunicationbetweenEVs,aggregatorandTSO/DSOs,andbidirectionalpower

•CanprovideavarietyofservicesonaTSOlevel(frequencycontrol,demandresponse),aDSOlevel(congestionreduction,peakshaving),orothers(V2Home,V2X,renewableintegration)

•CanalsoprovideEVownersnewrevenuestream,reducecostofownership

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Expert’sBenefitsofV2G

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•Comparedtotheliterature,expertstendedtofocusmorerenewableenergy,controlledchargingandvehicle-to-home

•TendedtofocuslessincomparisononTSO/DSOservicesthatwouldprovidedstrongereconomicincentivestotheconsumer

•Mismatchbetweenliteratureandexperts:differenceofopinionsorlackofknowledgeofthevalueofservices?

3%

3%

3%

4%

7%

7%

8%

10%

20%

21%

22%

23%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

BETTERUSEOFEVS

NEWTECHNOLOGYTOEXPORT

DISCONNECTFROMGRID

BETTERTHANOTHERSTORAGES

ENERGYARBITRAGE

EMERGENCYBACKUP

ECONOMICSAVINGS

DSOSERVICES

TSOSERVICES

VEHICLE-TO-HOME

CONTROLLEDCHARGING

RENEWABLEENERGYINTEGRATION

PercentofExperts

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ExpertBarriersofV2G

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7.0%

9.7%

10.1%

12.3%

12.8%

14.5%

15.0%

15.0%

16.7%

27.8%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

AGGREGATION,COORDINATION

ELECTRICITYMARKETSTRUCTURE

INSUFFICIENTEVVOLUME

BATTERYDEGRADATION

INCREASEDCOST/COMPLEXITY

UNCERTAINTYANDSKEPTICISM

POORBUSINESSCASE/MODEL

UNNECESSARYHERE

CONSUMERRESISTANCE

PREFERENCEFORTEHCNOLOGIES

PercentofExperts

•AkeybarriertoV2GintheNordicsisthecompetitionwithhydroandthestabilityofthegrid• ParticularlyinNorway,IcelandandSweden,wherehydrocapacitiesobviatetheneedforcertainV2Gservices(butmaybenotall)

•Skepticismwasabound:• Expertswereskepticalofthetechnology• AlsoskepticalthatconsumerswouldacceptV2Grestrictions

• Skepticalthebusinesscasewasviable

•Moretechnicalbarriersincludebatterydegradationandmarketregulations

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CustomerOpinionsofV2G•V2GmayprovideanimportantincentiveforconsumerstoadoptEVs,butlackofknowledgeseemedtobemostimportantbarrier

•Ofthe50focusgroupparticipants,noneknewofV2G,andonlyahandfulhadsomeideaofsmartgridsgenerally

•Similarly,V2GcapacitywasrankedmuchlowerinimportancethanotherEVattributesinoursurvey(e.g.rangeranked4.4outof5,batteryliferanked4.6,butV2Gonlyranked3.6)

•Ontheotherhand,uponrealizingthepotentialrevenuesofV2G,manywereinstantlyconvinced.Forexample,onefocusgroupparticipantasked:

“Wait,youwouldbegettingmoneyforit?Oh,sureIwoulddoV2G.”

• Consumersbelievedthebarrierswouldbebatterylifeandthefreedomtouseyourcar.Asanotherparticipantsaid:

“Planningisahugedownside…Ithinkitgoesupagainsthumannature.That’snotfreedom.”

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V2GPolicyImplications•Vehicle-to-gridneedstobebettercommunicatedandprovenasatechnologytobothexpertsandconsumers• Valuepropositionneedstobeclearandstrong,especiallyincountrieswithhydro

•ManyconsumerswereinterestedintherevenuesandsocialbenefitsofV2G,butallwereignorantofthetechnologyspecifics.Manyalsowereworriedaboutperceivedlossoffreedom• V2Gshouldbebettercommunicatedthroughinformationandeducation• V2Gprogramsneedstobeflexibleandintuitiveformassadoption– planningshouldbeeasy

•Moretechnicalpolicyimplications,suchaselectricitymarketregulations,areunder-recognizedbyconsumersandexperts,butstillneedtobeaddressed

•Overall,V2GneedsmoresupporttobecomemoreclearinthemindsofbothexpertsandconsumersintheNordics

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GerardoZarazuadeRubensMobile:+45-93508426

gerardo.zarazua@btech.au.dk

LanceNoelMobile:+4561968669lnoel@btech.au.dk