Post on 14-Jan-2015
description
Overview
• Background insights form BFPs• Rationale: Why we need to know about GDs• Framework: How to organize info
The basin focal projects
• A global picture in 10 basins, LAC (2), Africa(4) and Asia(4)
• Diverse conditions– Biophysical, economic, political
• 10 teams, multi-disciplinary• Started looking for water poverty
– …ended up defining inter-related systems of water, food and development
Simple story:
• River basins provide a diversity of ecosystem services:– provisioning regulating…
• Most of these are understood individually, to a degree– Food systems, hydrology, environmental flows,
aquaculture….• Societies exploit these ES as they develop
– Appropriate, invest, exchange, ruin…• …development is influenced BY ESs …development
modifies ESs. • This represents opportunities and risks
1 Hydrology mattersWater: a fundamental but uncertain resource
Ganges Indus Karkheh Limpopo Mekong Niger Nile Sao Fran. Volta Yellow0
0.0002
0.0004
0.0006
0.0008
0.001
0.0012
0.0014
Dry season flow (mcm/cap)
From CSIRO analysis
Ganges• Uncontrolled groundwater use
Photos: Fred Pearce
GW pumps in Indus-Ganges basin
Map: Sharma et al, 2009
0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-040
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
BangladeshBoliviaBrazilBurkina FasoChinaColombiaEgypt, Arab Rep.EthiopiaIndiaThailandVietnamWorld
Water availability (km3/cap)
GNI (
$US/
cap)
But no simple link of water with poverty
-1.00E-06 2.12E-22 1.00E-06 2.00E-06 3.00E-06 4.00E-06 5.00E-060
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
BangladeshBoliviaBrazilBurkina FasoChinaColombiaEgypt, Arab Rep.EthiopiaIndiaThailandVietnamWorld
Water availability (km3/cap)
GNI (
$US/
cap)
…even in very dry areas
2 Water productivity very low over most areas
Wpr (estimated potential)
VoltaLimpopo
Nile
Niger
IGB
YR
Mekong
Niger
Volta
Rural poverty
Agriculture as %
of GD
P
AndesSão Francisco
KarkhehYellow
Nile
IGBLimpopo
Mekong
Income
4 Basins move along a development trajectory
…so the major issues vary according to position [as well as ecosystem entitlements]
Rural poverty
Agr
icul
ture
as
% o
f G
DP
AndesSao Fran
KarkhehYellow
Niger
Nile
IGBLimpopo
Volta
Mekong
Agriculture onlyExtreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish may dominate)
Some sectors moving Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’Increased vulnerability
Markets very activeRural poor in pocketsImproved potential for ecosystem services
Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ....Problems...
Vulnerability
Population
pressure
Industrial &
Urban
demands
Power
differences
Threats to
sustainability
Gross National Income
Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ... Opportunities
Basic support
& Protection
Productivity
increaseSharing to
build
resilience
Basics need
Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need
for sustainability
Increasing Role forInstitutions
Providing basicsProtecting existing
supportInvest in agricultural
basics
Big invest in agric.Resource-sharing &
protectionDeveloping pathways out
of farming
Benefit-sharing (trading)
Demand managementSupply-chain management
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,5000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Brazil
India
Ethiopia
Per capita GNI (US$)
Cont
ributi
on o
f agr
icultu
re to
GDP
gro
wth
(%)
Ethiopia and Burkina Faso in agricul-tural phase of development
India and Bangladesh transitioning to higher value activi-ties
Bolivia emerging slowly after decades of low growth
Brazil strong growth in the 60’s and in recent years to emerge as an industrial economy
General di-rection
A look at some of the drivers:General economic growth
Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS
OatsPotatoBean, CommonWheat, commonBarleyMaizeCacaoSorghum (low altitude)Perennial soybean
Countries
Crop
Loss
/Gai
n
GCCMajor new uncertainty
From Ramirez et al, 2011
Rationale: why define global drivers?
3 good reasons to study GDs• Widespread influence
– helps understand global importance of what is known in basins
• GDs influence BDCs– Reduce some uncertainty
• Changes in BDCs may represent responses of regional / global importance– Is PES a ‘global’ solution?
3 good reasons not to• Uncertain relevance
– “Does it really matter to the BDC?”
• Additional complexity– Some models seem to have a
life of their own
• Difficult to combine multiple concepts– Quant/qual…mutliple
objective…
Frameworkrelevance
Drivers Basins
Is development in Basins affected by global drivers?
Do BDCs support change of regional or global importance?
1 Analyze drivers:•Population•Economic•GCC•Political•Techno...
2 Identify responses to drivers in basins•Scenarios…•Learning processes•Changes
3 Relate to system resilience
Framework:Concepts
FrameworkImpacts and change3 places we can help
Drivers act on river basin systems
Consequences realized
Response[Innovation?]
ChangeBasin charateristics
Framework: Identifying targets Problematic behaviours
Institutions Instruments Science
Uncertainty Ignorance
Cannot manage variability
Families
Farmer organizations
Supply chain actors
Municipalities
Ministries
Norms
Regulations
Policy (e.g. food, water security)Law
Valuation
Micro-financeMicro-ins
Supply chains
Situation analysis
Scenario analysis
Technology
System analysis/design
Cognitive problems
Unable to agree
Lack of motive for change
Short-termism
Local onlyLack of capacity Can’t invest
Can’t organize
Framework: Identifying targets Problematic behaviours
Institutions Instruments Science
Uncertainty Ignorance
Cannot manage variability
Families
Farmer organizations
Supply chain actors
Municipalities
Ministries
Norms
Regulations
Policy (e.g. food, water security)Law
Valuation
Micro-financeMicro-ins
Supply chains
Situation analysis
Scenario analysis
Technology
System analysis/design
Cognitive problems
Unable to agree
Lack of motive for change
Short-termism
Local onlyLack of capacity Can’t invest
Can’t organize
Linking components to enable CHANGE
FrameworkProcess
• First ideas– Draft (very rough) – done
• Workshop (now!)– to expand concepts
• Re-draft framework, reorganize• Forum
– Present ideas to a broader audience• Re-draft framework
– Present to CPMT. Decide how to proceed