Post on 19-May-2015
description
Liberal education in 2022:
a scenarios exploration
American Association of Colleges and
Universities-
January 2012
nitle.org
Communities of practice
Research
Joint projects
Outreach
Network platform: events f2f/online
Partnerships Translation
Futuresmethods
Extrapolation Environmenta
l scan Delphi Futures
market
Scenarios
Caveat: wild cards and Black Swans
Extraordinary political or economic event
Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
iPhone Apps Store downloads1.April 2009 1.0 billion2.July 2009 1.5 billion3.Sept 2009 2.0 billion4.Dec 2009 …?
-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
Facebooks’ ascent
Tweak to contexts
Environmental scanning
Multiple sources
Should belongitudinal
Dynamic social media venue
Next 20 years? Screening Interacting Sharing Flowing Accessing Generating
-Kevin Kelly
Pattern recognition:Deductions from scanning
Delphi
Assemble experts
Probe for opinions
Rank and distill ideas
Reiterate
Example: the Horizon Report “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of
research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews
[We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.
A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.
Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
Horizon trends, 2011
Electronic Books
Mobiles Augmented Reality
Game-Based Learning
Gesture-Based Computing
Learning Analytics
Futures markets Propositions in time Shares to be traded
Futures markets Quant. +
Qual. Affordances of
play
Continuous Distributed
feedback
Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
Scenarios
Integrate previous methods Select drivers –
environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi
reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions –
prediction markets
Is there a higher education bubble?
Digital humanities on the rise
Adjunctification continues
Alternative online learning
Textbooks going ebook+
Scholarly publication and/versus open access
Higher education budgets
Computer hardware ecology
Has the World Wide Web hit its limit?
January 2012 scan sample
Driver: digital migration
Social media Mobile devices Digital content, born and
made Ferment of forms›Gaming›User-generated, remixed content
Driver: digital migration
Broad and dynamic Industrial disruption Distance (or virtual) everything
Global default
Driver: globalism on steroids
Ever-increasing economic interpenetration
Global media boom/riptide
Ready cultural disruption
“ “ innovation
Driver: globalism on steroids
Policy churn Accelerating business distribution
Distant is the new nearby
Non-US educational drives
NITLEhttp://nitle.org
Technehttp://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander