Post on 01-Apr-2015
Introduction
• Objective: Develop regional ocean forecasting capability
• AU$15M co-investment for Phase 1
• Partners: Bureau, CSIRO, Navy
• Launched 2003,
• Phase1 due for completion in early 2007
• An ocean forecasting system for Australia, providing reliable and accurate ocean information for the national public good, enhancing the sustainability and management of our marine environment and ensuring safe and effective operations at sea
• Phase 2 has been negotiated, near AU$17M further co-investment
• http://www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink
Priorities
1. Core operational ocean forecast model (OFAM)
Maintain world-class core system
2. New Regional/Coastal Forecast System
Synergy with regional mesoLAPS, e.g. SE Aust
Applications drawn to GBR and NWS Regional System: coupled ocean-atmosphere (3-5km resolution)
Improved fine-scale nesting, e.g. for ROAM
3. Enhanced relocatable ocean model
ROAM ↔ Navy
Other marine, coastal applications
Priorities
4. Coupling
Coupled ocean-atmosphere, e.g. TCs
Ecosystem/biogeochemistry
“new” weather prediction
5. Observing system
Infrastructure for AusIOOS, initial contributions from IMOS
New data: satellites, CODAR, salinity, …
Ocean Forecasting Australia Model, OFAM
… every 10th grid point shown
Global configuration of MOM4
Eddy-resolving around Australia
10 m vertical resolution to 200 m depth
Surface fluxes from ECMWF (for reanalyses)
Minimum resolution: ~100km
~10km resolution
Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS
Assimilates observations of SLA, SST, in situ T and S
Model
SLA+
SST
in situT + S
Observations Analysis
SOOPXBT
Observing System Experiments
How important are different components of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for ocean reanalysis?
Experiment design
With-hold each component of the observing system
6-month integrations (1st half of 2003 and 2006)
compare to with-held observations
treat BRAN1.5, with all observations assimilated, as the “truth”
Observing System Experiments
Assimilation of Argo/XBT and SST reduces the forecast error of SLA by ~50% compared to the assimilation of altimetry
Assimilation of Altimetry and Argo only reduces the forecast error of SST by a small amount
2003
Observing System Experiments:Impact on upper ocean temperature (0-1000 m)
Depth average (0-1000 m) of the temperature error introduced by with-holding: all obs (top)SSTAltimetryArgo/XBT (bottom)…in 2003 (left) and 2006 (right); and the zonal average (left panels) in the Australian region.
All components offer a unique and essential contribution to the ocean reanalysis.
Importance of Argo/XBT
Importance of SST
Importance of ALTIMETRY