Post on 18-Jan-2016
Internet on Democratization
Samantha AndersonMin Woong Choi
Griffin Cohen
The Effect Of
Prof. Vreeland 15 Oct 2013
Research Question
Internet
Democratization
Hypothesis
• Internet growth will the likelihood of democratization in autocratic regimes
– Internet facilitates communications, both domestically and internationally • Thus, gives “people” more power
increaseAlso:
-Democracies should both have more Internet users and Internet growth
-In the years prior to democratization, countries should see increasing Internet growth
Arab Spring (2011)
Debate
• Globalization’s effects on world and politics Open Networks Closed Regimes: The Impact of the Internet on Authoritarian Rule
By Shanthi Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas
The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
By Ian Bremmer
Democratization(1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total
Nigeria 1999Taiwan 1996Niger 2000Thailand 2008Kenya 1998Burundi 2005*Sierra Leone 1996Comoros 2004Pakistan 2008Kyrgyzstan 2005Liberia 2006*Guinea-Bissau 2000
Nepal 2008Georgia 2004Senegal 2000Maldives 2008Ecuador 2002Indonesia 1999Mauritania 2007Bhutan 2007*Sierra Leone 1998Mexico 2000*Guinea-Bissau 2004Peru 2001Serbia and Montenegro 2000
Case Studies
Russia
Ukraine
China North AfricanCountries
Tunisia
Methodology
• Merging Data Sets• WDI and Vreeland Democracy
• Data from 1995-2008• 25 Countries transition from Dictatorship to
Democracy
New VariablesInternet Growth per YearRegime ChangesRegime Transition Weighted
-Year of transition = 3-1 Year before = 2-2 Years before = 1-All others = 0
Number of Aggregate Transitions per Year
Statistical Tests:CorrelationRegressionFixed RegressionGraphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs)
Do File: Merging Datasets
Do File: New Variables
Internet and New Variables
Preliminary Results
Preliminary Results
Internet Users Effect on Democracy
Internet Users Effect on Democracy (Quadratic Fit)
Number of Democratizations per year
5
4
3
2
1
Internet Users Growth For World per Year
Internet Growth per Years Before Democratization
All Other Years
2 years prior
1 year prior
Year of
Effect of Internet Growth Rate on Nearing a Democratization
Effect of Regime type on Internet Growth Rate
Dictatorship
Democracy
Internet Growth Variable
Internet Growth Internet Growth
Effect of Regime type on Number of Internet Users
Dictatorship
Democracy
Future Research
• Region-specific analysis
• Data when Democracies fall and become Dictatorships
• Control for other variables besides GDP
Implications
Effect of Internet on Democratization(If proves robust…)
•China•Globalization •Countries looking for Democratization should focus on Internet growth•Dictatorships should try to suppress communications and Internet
Comments? Questions?