Post on 11-Dec-2015
International Republican Institute
Public Opinion Survey of Ugandans
December 4-23, 2014
2
Detailed Methodology• The International Republican Institute (IRI) carried out a survey of Ugandan citizens aged 18 years
and older.
• The questionnaire was designed by Professor Robert Mattes of the University of Cape Town, in consultation with IRI, Uganda’s political parties and civil society stakeholders. Sample design, interview training and fieldwork was carried out by Hatchile Consult, a social research firm, in consultation with IRI and Professor Mattes.
• Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 2,402 respondents between December 4–23, 2014.
• The margin of error for the entire study is plus or minus two percentage points.
• In Stage 1, IRI stratified all Enumerator Areas (EU) from the most recent Uganda census by sub-region and rural-urban status. IRI then randomly selected 300 EUs with the probability proportionate to the population size of each stratum.
• In Stage 2, interviewers followed random walk patterns within the selected EU to identify eight households. Within each household (Stage 3), all members of the household aged 18 years and older were listed and one was randomly selected to participate in the survey. Interviews at each household alternated between men and women. One respondent from each household was selected by creating a numbered list of adults in that household and a number was randomly drawn.
• All interviewers were conducted in the language of the respondent’s choice.
• In total 3,039 houses were visited to obtain 2,402 interviews. Thus, the response rate for this survey was 79 percent.
• The survey was funded by the United States Agency for International Development.
• Charts and graphs may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
International Republican Institute
Country Headed in Right Direction
Since the last national election in 2011, would you say that each of the following have gotten better, stayed the same or become
worse?
4
Ugand
a Ove
rall
Own Living
Con
ditio
ns
Polit
ical S
ituat
ion
Nationa
l Eco
nom
y0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6% 5% 6% 4%
46% 43% 40% 37%
21% 21% 22%19%
21% 25% 22% 31%
5% 7% 5% 8%2% 1%
6% 2%
Much Better Better SameWorse Much Worse Don’t Know
Looking ahead, do you expect the following to be better or worse in 12 months time?
5
Own Living
Con
ditio
ns
Ugand
a Ove
rall
Nationa
l Eco
nom
y
Polit
ical S
ituat
ion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
7% 6% 5% 6%
42% 38% 38% 33%
21%19% 19% 18%
14% 18% 19% 20%
6% 6% 7% 8%
10% 14% 12% 15%
Much Better Better SameWorse Much Worse Don’t Know
What about the overall direction of the country? Do you feel Uganda is going in the right direction or going in the wrong
direction?
6
Wrong Direction
Don't know
Right Direction
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
0.29
3%
0.69
Right Direction Don’t Know Wrong Direction
In your opinion, who do you think is responsible for the overall direction in which the country is going?
7
Big Business
Churches
Int'l Donors / Int'l Financial Institutions
Military
National Resistance Movement
People of Uganda
Government
President Museveni
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
4%
5%
6%
7%
20%
45%
67%
80%
How well or badly would you say the national government has been handling:
8
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
7% 8% 4% 4%
44% 37% 28% 26%
26% 27%33% 30%
17% 23% 32% 35%5% 5% 3% 5%
Very Well Well Badly Very Badly Don’t Know
How well or badly would you say the national government has been handling:
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
13% 17% 12% 11% 11%
48% 42% 45% 47% 33%
22% 20% 21% 24%22%
15% 21% 22% 15%31%
1% 1% 1% 2% 3%
Very Well Well Badly Very Badly Don’t Know
How well or badly would you say the national government has been handling:
10
Reducing Crime Fighting Corruption in Gov't0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19%
5%
43%
20%
21%
20%
16%
49%
2% 5%
Very Well Well Badly Very Badly Don’t Know
With regard to government hospitals and health clinics, please tell me whether you think the following matters have gotten
better, stayed the same or become worse since the 2011 elections?
11
Quality of Facilities
Quality of Medical Staff
Distance to Nearest
Health Center
Availability of Medicines
Cost of Health Care
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4% 5% 6% 4% 4%
41% 38% 32% 31% 27%
25% 24% 37%
18% 21%
21% 21% 14%
29% 30%
8% 8% 11%16% 17%
2% 4% 1% 2% 2%
Much Better Better SameWorse Much Worse Don’t Know
The National Resistance Movement made a series of campaign promises before the 2011 elections. Do you think that it was able to deliver on all, most, a few or none of these promises?
12
Don't Know
None
Few
Most
All
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
6%
15%
58%
18%
2%
Which of the following statements comes closest to how you feel about the National Resistance Movement’s 2011 campaign
promises?
13
Don't Know
Never was Committed, No Intention to Deliver
Committed to Promises, but Failed to Deliver
Committed to Promises, Delivered on Them
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
7%
24%
57%
12%
Now let’s speak about the performance of various parts of the government of Uganda. Do you approve or disapprove of the
way the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?
14
President Mu-seveni
Elected MP Elected Councilor Mayor0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30%
11% 8% 8%
47%
38% 44%33%
12%
26% 26%
20%
6%
17% 14%
8%
4% 7% 8%
30%
Strongly Approve Approve DisapproveStrongly Disapprove Don’t Know / Haven't Heard
In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the country that government should address? (Open-Ended)
15
War
Civil War
Gender Issues / Women’s Rights
HIV/AIDS
Services (Other)
Land
Loans / Credit
Democracy / Political Rights
Food Shortage / Famine
Transportation
Electricity
Farming / Agriculture
Corruption
Education
Water Supply
Unemployment
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%0.3%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%2%2%3%3%3%3%3%4%
5%6%
8%8%8%
11%11%
13%21%
24%24%
25%26%26%
29%
In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing the country that government should address? (Open-Ended)
16
CRIME
Land
Farming / Agriculture
CORRUPTION
Education
Orphans / Street Children / Homeless Children
Poverty / Destitution
Transportation
TRANSPORTATION
Services (Other)
Water Supply
Sickness / Disease
Availability of Health Care
Overall Wages, Incomes and Salaries
Unemployment
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
8%
3%3%
11%
21%
24%
2%5%
25%
8%26%
2%8%
26%
1%4%
13%24%
3%6%
11%29%
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, how well or badly would you say government has handled that issue
since the 2011 elections?
17
Don't Know
Very Badly
Fairly Badly
Fairly Well
Very Well
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
2%
29%
34%
32%
2%
Thinking of the most important problem just identified, how well or badly would you say government has handled that issue since
the 2011 elections?
18
Rates / Taxes
Unemployment
Corruption
Management of Economy
Poverty / Destitution
Infrastructure / Roads
Education
Water Supply
Availability of Health Care
Health
Farming / Agriculture
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
21%
27%
28%
34%
34%
34%
35%
38%
39%
42%
46%
78%
73%
72%
64%
64%
65%
65%
62%
62%
58%
51%
1%
0.3%
0.5%
2%
1%
0.4%
0.5%
1%
2%
Well / Very Well Badly / Very Badly Don’t Know
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any other political party have done a better job than the National
Resistance Movement in handling this issue?
19
Don’t know
No
Yes
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
21%
60%
17%
Thinking of the most important problem you just identified, could any other political party have done a better job than the National
Resistance Movement in handling this issue? IF YES: Which political party is that?
20
Other
Conservative Party
Democratic Party
Uganda People's Congress
Forum for Democratic
Change
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1%
0.1%
2%
3%
12%
International Republican Institute
Committed to Multi-Party Elections but Skeptical of Process
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
22
Who people vote for can make a big difference to what happens in this country.
No matter who people vote for, it won't make any difference to what happens in this country.
It makes a big diference who is in power. The right people can change things for the better.
It doesn't make any difference who is in power, things just go on the same way.
We should choose our leaders in Uganda through regular, open and honest elections.
Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing the country's leaders.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0.74
0.79
0.82
22%
17%
15%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country.
23
Many political parties are needed to make sure that Ugandans have a real choice in who governs them.
Political parties create division and confusion. It is therefore necessary to have many political parties in Uganda.
The country's opposition parties represent real causes and interests.
The country's opposition parties are personal platforms for disgruntled politicians who have left the NRM.
Oppositon parties should regularly examine and criticize government policies and actions.
Opposition parties should concentrate on cooperating with government and helping it develop the country.
I vote for a candidate who belongs to the political party that advances ideas I support.
I vote on the basis of the individual merits of a man or woman. The party they belong to is of secondary interest.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
63%
53%
38%
33%
35%
35%
56%
65%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national elections, held in 2011?
24
Don't Know
Not Free or Fair
Free and Fair, but with Major Problems
Free and Fair, with Minor Problems
Completely Free and Fair
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%10
0%
12%
10%
11%
25%
41%
During the 2011 election, did you / were you:
25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
61%
12%4% 4% 2%
39%
88%96% 96% 98%
Yes No / Don’t Know
Do you expect the upcoming 2016 elections to be:
26
Don't Know
Not Free or Fair?
Free and Fair, but with Major Problems?
Free and Fair, with Minor Problems?
Completely Free and Fair?
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%10
0%
26%
9%
13%
16%
34%
How free will you be to choose who to vote for without feeling pressured?
27
Don't Know
Completely Free
Somewhat Free
Not Very Free
Not at All Free
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7%
62%
21%
5%
4%
Thinking about politics today in Uganda, how often do people have to be careful of what they say about politics?
28
Don't Know
Never
Rarely
Often
Always
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
6%
20%
18%
18%
36%
How much do you personally fear becoming a victim of political intimidation or violence?
29
Don't Know
Not at all
A Little Bit
Somewhat
A Lot
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5%
32%
14%
17%
32%
How likely do you think it is that:
30
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
22% 26% 32%
61% 56%46%
17% 18% 22%
Very/Somewhat Not Very/Not At All Don’t Know
Do you think each of the following groups of people support the same political party as you, support another political party, or is their support divided among several different parties, or don’t
you know enough about their views to say?
31
Neighbors Co-Workers0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
22% 17%
30%29%
37% 43%
11% 9%
Same Party Divided Don’t Know Different Party
To what extent do you think people in your area will suffer negative consequences if they vote for the party of their choice?
32
Don't Know
Not at All
A Little
Somewhat
A Great Deal
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
24%
34%
17%
15%
11%
Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at polling places make you feel more secure, make no difference
or make you feel less secure?
33
Don't Know
Much Less Secure
Less Secure
Make No Difference
More Secure
Much More Secure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2%
10%
10%
9%
24%
44%
Would the presence of observers from other countries make things better, make no difference or make things worse?
34
Don't Know
Much Worse
Worse
Make No Difference
Better
Much Better
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
9%
3%
4%
22%
33%
30%
International Republican Institute
Support Term Limits and Election Commission Overhaul
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country. Which of the following
statements is closest to your view?
36
There should be no constitutional limits on how long the president can service.
The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum two terms in office.
There should be no constitutional limits on the age of the president.
No one should be allowed to stand for president if they are older than 75 years of age.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
30%
30%
65%
66%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?
37
Religious Leaders
Army President Museveni
Commu-nity
Leaders
Police Parliament Electoral Com-
mission
Courts of Law
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
70%56% 51% 49%
23% 20% 20% 15%
20%
18% 23% 28%
26% 28%21%
24%
7%
11% 15% 14%
23% 25%
21% 24%
3%
5%8% 7%
25% 19%
25% 23%
1%9%
3% 2% 4% 8% 12% 14%
A Lot Somewhat Just A LittleNot At All Don’t Know / Haven't Heard
Which of these statements is closest to your opinion? The composition of the Electoral Commission:
38
Don't Know
Is Fine as It Currently Is
Needs to Be Changed so It Has a Broader Representation of All the Country's Political Parties
Needs to Be Changed so That It Is Independent of All Political Parties
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
7%
23%
25%
45%
Which of the following statements about our political system is closest to your view?
39
As head of state, the president should continue to appoint members to the Election Commission as provided for in the Constitution.
Don't Know / Agree With Neither
Since the president is also a political contestant, he should not appoint members to the Electoral Commission who is the referee of the electoral process and the Constitution should be changed accordingly.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
23%
7%
64%
Agree / Strongly Agree
International Republican Institute
Likely Voter Participation2016 Elections
In the next elections, in 2016, will people be able to register using the same documents as before, or do they need to get the new National ID card in order to register, or haven’t you had a
chance to hear about this yet?
41
Don't Know / Haven't Had a Chance to Hear
Can Register with Old Documentation
Need New National ID Card
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%10
0%
19%
16%
65%
I know it’s a long way off, but what are the chances of your voting in the national elections for president and parliament in 2016? How likely, if at all are you to vote in the next elections?
42
Don’t Know
Refused to Answer
Very Unlikely
Somewhat Unlikely
Somewhat Likely
Very Likely
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
4%
1%
4%
4%
20%
60%
International Republican Institute
Free and Fair Elections Campaign
Have you heard of the Free and Fair Elections campaign, or haven’t you had a chance to find out about this yet?
44
Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance
No
Yes
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
11%
36%
54%
Do you think that the Free and Fair Elections Campaign represents the interests of government, of opposition parties, or
of ordinary citizens, or haven’t you heard enough about it to say?
45
Don't Know / Haven't Had Chance
Government
Oppositon Parties
Ordinary Citizens
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
26%
24%
9%
42%
International Republican Institute
Electoral Reform
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country. Which of the following
statements is closest to your view?
47
Since some groups are so important, like the Army, women, youth and people with disabilities, we should set aside a certain number of seats for representatives of those groups.
There should be no parliamentary seats reserved for specific sectors or special interest groups.
The vice president should be appointed by the president and serve as long as the president has confidence in him/her.
The vice president should be directly elected by the voters and serve for the same term of office as the president.
Mayors should be appointed by the national government.
Municipal mayors should be directly elected by the voters in that town/village/city.
75%
52%
16%
19%
45%
74%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country. Which of the following
statements is closest to your view?
48
I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for individual candidates for parliament.
I would rather have an electoral system where we vote for a political party for parliament, rather than for individual candidates.
I prefer to keep the present system where we vote for a candidate.
I would rather have an electoral system where political parties received seats in the national parliament in direct proportion to the number of votes it wins.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
64%
67%
29%
23%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1 Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
International Republican Institute
Money and Politics
It takes a great deal of money and skilled people to run an effective political party organization and conduct election
campaigns. Who should be primarily responsible to provide the funds for parties to carry out these activities?
50
Don't Know
Refused to Answer
Foreign Governments
Foreign Organizations
Party Members
Government, Out of Taxpayer Funds
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%
10%
2%
7%
9%
37%
35%
Which of the following statements about our political system is closest to your view?
51
Since people are free to decide what to do with their money, people should be able to give as much money as they want to a political party or candidate.
There should be legal limits on how much money any individual or business can donate to a candidate or a political party.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0.53
34%
Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 1Agree / Strongly Agree with Statement 2
For each of the following please indicate whether you think the act is not wrong at all, wrong but understandable or wrong and
punishable?
52
0%20%40%
60%80%
100%
63% 73%
23% 17%11% 7%2% 2%
Wrong and Punishable Wrong But UnderstandableNot Wrong At All Don’t Know
International Republican Institute
Roles and Expectations of Elected Representatives
Members of Parliament have different responsibilities. Which of the following do you think is the most important responsibility of
your Member of Parliament?
54
Don't Know
None of These
Monitor the President and his Government
Make Laws for the Good of the Country
Help Constituents with their Personal Problems
Deliver Jobs or Development to the Constituency
Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
3%
0%
3%
11%
7%
11%
64%
Elected local government councilors have different responsibilities. Which of the following do you think is the most
important responsibility of your elected local government councilor?
55
Don't Know
None of These
Monitor the Mayor and his Sub-County Government
Make Laws for the Good of the Sub-County
Help Constituents with their Personal Problems
Deliver Jobs or Development to the Sub-County
Listen to Constituents and Represent their Needs
0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%
5%
2%
2%
4%
15%
18%
54%
International Republican Institute
Gender, Youth and Politics
Lets talk for a moment about the kind of political system you would like to have in this country. Which of the following
statements is closest to your view?
57
Men make better political leaders than women, and should be elected rather than women.
Women should have the same chance of being elected to political office as men.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
25%
71%
Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 1 Strongly Agree / Agree with Statement 2
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?: Women are equally represented in the political decision-making positions
in Uganda.
58
Don’t Know
Strongly Disagree
Disagree
Agree
Strongly Agree
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
7%
9%
13%
34%
37%
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a woman candidate?
59
Don’t Know
Very Unlikely
Somewhat Unlikely
Somwhat Likely
Very Likely
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
4%
58%
25%
5%
8%
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections for a candidate younger than 30?
60
Don’t Know
Very Unlikely
Somewhat Unlikely
Somwhat Likely
Very Likely
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5%
28%
24%
16%
26%
International Republican Institute
Demographics
How interested would you say you are in public affairs?
62
Don't Know
Not at All Interested
Not Very Interested
Somewhat Interested
Very Interested
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
2%
11%
19%
31%
37%
When you get together with your friends or family, would you say that you discuss political matters:
63
Don't Know
Never
Occasionally
Frequently
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
1%
32%
51%
16%
How often do you:
64
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
59%
16% 5% 7% 3%
21%
8%11% 3% 3%
Every Day Few Times A Week
Respondent’s Gender
65
Female
Male
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
50%
50%
Respondent’s Age
66
60 and older
50 to 59
40 to 49
30 to 39
18 to 29
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
8%
11%
19%
26%
35%
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
67
No Formal Schooling
Some Primary
Primary Completed
Some Secondary
Secondary Completed
Post Secondary Qualification
Some University
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
13%
30%
14%
22%
9%
8%
4%
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