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3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property
John Hornick
April 2014
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First, a Disclaimer
“Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they the shadows of things that May be?”
» Ebenezer Scrooge, to the Third Spirit
Keep in Mind . . .
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Keep in Mind
Tipping into the mainstream
Everything will change when . . .
Implications
Why the Future (or Demise) of IP?
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Two Reasons
Democratization of manufacturing
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Some People Don’t Like IP
“There is a persistent widespread belief that intellectual property law (and patents in particular) encourage innovation. This is intuitive, however, the evidence to the contrary is now overwhelming and the unavoidable conclusion is that intellectual property actually stifles innovation.”
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Snapshot of the 3D Printer Players
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HIGH-END
PRINTERS
LOW-COST PRINTERS
3D Kits, A1 Technologies, Ac123Dc, Afinia, Airwolf 3D, Asiga, B9Creations, BatBot, Bits from Bytes, Blue Printer, CB-Printer, Code-p, CSP, Cubify, Deezmaker, Essential Dynamics, Eventorbot, EZ 3D printers, Fabbster, Fablicator, Felix Printers, Formlabs, German RepRap Foundation, Hot
Proceed, Hyrel 3D, Intelligent Machine Inc., Invent Apart, iRapid, Leapfrog, Lulzbot, Makemendel, Makergear, MaukCC, Mbot 3D, Mendel
Parts, MendelMax, miniFactory, Mixshop, Multistation, NW RepRap, PP3DP, Printrbot, Rays Opitcs, RepRap France - eMotion Tech, RepRapPro,
ReprapSource, Robo 3D, Robot Factory, Romscraj, Sharebot, Solido, Solidoodle, Sumpod, Tantillus, The Future is 3-D, Tinkerine Studio,
TrinityLabs, Type A Machines, Ultimaker, Ultra-Bot, Weistek, York 3D Printers, Zbot.cc
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Where is the IP in 3D Printing?
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Where’s Waldo?
AM machines
– driven by Software or firmware
CAD/CAM file
– fuse, layer on layer Extruded material, powder, or sheets
Heat, chemical, glue, light, knife, electron beam
Post-production work
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Where’s Waldo?
AM machines
– driven by Software or firmware
CAD file
– fuse material layer on layer Extruded material, powder, or sheets
Heat, chemical, glue, light, knife, electron beam
Post-production work
Why 3DP May Change Everything
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Why It May Change Everything: Micro
One machine makes all, no re-tooling or assembly
Impossible designs, interior structures
Affordable customization – Complexity is free
– Batches of one, on demand
Greener – Less raw materials, energy
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Why It May Change Everything: Macro
Facially inconsistent situations
– Manufacturing Renaissance in countries with Strong intellectual capital
But high manufacturing costs
– Repatriation of jobs No advantage in offshoring
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Why It May Change Everything: Macro
But – Disruption/destruction of traditional models – Future sales:
Designs, not products
– Regional Manufacturing
Just in time
– Printing in-house, by service bureaus, by you and me
Thought Experiment
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What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
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What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
Cody Wilson
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What Would Happen if?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
Effect on:
– Traditional Business Models?
– IP?
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Answer: Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines will blur: manufacturer, retailer, user
Fundamentally different products
BACK TO making, not buying
–As democratization increases . . .
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Answer: Paradigm Shift
As democratization increases
–IP becomes increasingly irrelevant
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As democratization increases
As democratization increases
–IP increasingly irrelevant
–Customization replaces IP
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As democratization increases
As democratization increases
–IP increasingly irrelevant
–Customization replaces IP
–Trade secrets
Disruption Checklist
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Checklist For IP Disruption
“CEO of Autodesk Carl Bass will speak from personal experience about how to get the young makers in your life empowered to make amazing things and explore the world around them”
(Bay Area Maker Faire May 2013)
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
– Ability to do all of this away from control
At home
Uncontrolled sources
3DP Today
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3DP Today Manufacturing: growing rapidly
– ½ of all machines sold
Hot areas: – Aerospace
– Automotive
– Healthcare
– Fashion
– Complex structures
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3DP in Aerospace Boeing :
“This is the ultimate manufacturing method for us”
Airbus: wing brackets
North Western Polytechnical U (China): titanium wing spar
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3DP in Aerospace GE: “This is the future of manufacturing”
– Acquired 2 AM companies
– Parts for 4000 LEAP engines
DMLS titanium powder
– Fuel nozzle
DMLS Cobalt-chromium powder
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3DP in Automotive
3 Cool Cars
0 to 60 in 5 days
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Two Cool Bikes
Empire Cycles/Renishaw
3DP-F1 Flying Machine
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One Ugly Kayak
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3DP in Healthcare Ears (cosmetic and bionic)
Fingers
Noses
Models
Custom hearing aids (95%)
Dental (crowns, aligners) – 17 million
Prosthetics/Exo
Custom coverings for artificial limbs
Bladder, liver, kidney
Bone/bone cells
DNA
Drugs/vaccines
Eyes
Facial Reconstruction
Joints, discs, bones, spine
Stem cells
Tissue (ONVO)
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3DP in Healthcare
Facial Reconstruction
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3DP in Healthcare Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
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3DP in Healthcare
Proof of concept customizable artificial heart
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3DP in Healthcare
Heart sensor/defibrillator membrane
– Washington U, St. Louis & U of Illinois
Heart by 2023
– University of Louisville
Aorta Cells
– Sabanci U, Turkey
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3DP of Complex Structures Stratasys and Optomec: first fully 3DP electro-
mechanical structure
UTEP: printed electronic structures
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3DP of Complex Structures
FEBID (-100nm)
Google/3D Systems: ARA
CAMTEK: circuit board printer
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3DP of Complex Structures
MIT Center for Bits & Atoms
– 3D Assemblers
Atoms/molecules placed where needed
Complete functional systems printed at once
–integrated fixed and moving mechanical structures and electronics
Self-assembling
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability: 13,000 PATENTS/APPLICATIONS
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types: PATENT, COPYRIGHT, TRADE SECRET, TM
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system: depends on democratization
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system: depends on democratization
Materials: Golden Age
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Materials
“Materials are key to the future success of 3D printing”
Wohlers
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Ordinary Materials
A growing range of printable materials:
– Plastics
– Metals
– Ceramics
– Food
– Glass
– Wood
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Star Trek Materials
Liquid metal
– NC State University
– Flexible, stretchable
– Alloy of gallium and indium
– Liquid at room temperature
– “self-healing”
mechanically
electrically
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Star Trek Materials Cambridge U & PARC:
Thin film transistor
U of Warwick:
– Carbomorph
Conductive plastic
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Star Trek Materials
Graphene – Flexible
– Transparent
– Conductive
– Harder than diamond
– 200x stronger than steel steel
Graphene Flagship – €1 billion European Commission Initiative
– 75 institutions and partners, 17 European countries
Graphene 3D Labs/Lomiko Metals
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Star Trek Materials
Chiplets (Xerox PARC) – Grain of sand
– Containing intelligent data
– Microscopic electronic building blocks
Self-forming Metal
– Tsinghua University
– Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Star Trek Materials
Bio-composites – Ames Research Center/NASA
“Biomaterials out of thin air: in situ, on-demand printing of advanced biocomposites”
– 3D printing cells
from molecules in surrounding environment
– into useable material
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Beyond Star Trek: 4D Materials
University of Pittsburgh, Harvard School of Engineering, University of Illinois
– U.S. Army grant
Materials that modify their own structures at the macro level
– “Rather than construct a static material or one that simply changes its shape, we’re proposing the development of adaptive, biomimetic composites that re-program their shape, properties or functionality on demand, based upon external stimuli”
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IP Implications
Companies’ IP Philosophy
Protectability
IP infringement: – Types: PATENT, COPYRIGHT, TRADE SECRET, TM
– Likelihood
– Effectiveness of enforcement
– Scale
Risk to IP system:
– LOW
3D Printing Away From Control
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3DP Away from Control
Anyone with a digital design: – Bypass traditional supply
chain
– Self-manufacture
Scanning: – Wildcard
“Good enough”
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3DP Away from Control
Hasbro & 3D Systems
Digital Dollhouse
LEGO
BARBIE
Complex Structures???
Why the Experts Are Wrong
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
– “Most 3DP sales will be industrial”
– “Most homes will not have 3DP anytime soon”
– “Home 3DP will be unsophisticated”
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
Except this one:
– Avi says:
“We live in exponential times”
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
And this one:
“I think every home within 10 years, probably less than that, will have its own 3D printer, just as many homes now have a 2D or laser printer”
Andy Bird, Chairman, Disney International
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
Michigan Tech: – Save $2K/yr printing 27 things
Sudan and Uganda
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
Metal Printers for the Home – i-AM (inkjet)
– Vader (inkjet)
– Mini Metal Maker (clay)
Michigan Tech Metal Printer – Low Cost
– Open Source
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
MARKFORG3D
Cartesian ARGENTUM
$5M vs. $400
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Why the Experts Are Wrong
Think Outside the Box
Why 3DP Will Rock The IP World
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Rocking the IP World
Cuts across all IP Cuts across ALL technology and
products Anyone can:
– Recreate an existing product design – Manufacture – Distribute
Gartner: $100B by 2018
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Rocking the IP World
Internet + 3DP = . . . .
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Rocking the IP World
Internet + 3DP = powerful tool for:
avoiding & defeating IP
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Rocking the IP World
“There is no reason for patent and trademark law to repeat the mistakes of copyright, but there is every reason to think that these mistakes will be repeated” Desai & Magliocca
Economic Implications of AWC
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Short Term
Branded Products
Indie Designs
Parts
Mass Market Items
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Longer Term
5 Is (Eyes) = Major disruption of IP models – Infringement
– Identification
– Impractical or Impossible
– Irrelevant
Bigger Issue: Why buy branded products?
Biggest issue: Disruption of mass production – Eliminates quasi-IP protection of economies of scale
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The BIG Picture
Disruptive Game Changers:
– Digital Revolution Early Apple ad: “create dazzling color displays” and
“invent your own Pong games”
What’s the Internet?
Why would I need a Smart Phone?
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The BIG Picture
3DP Revolution
– Same questions
– Elements falling into place
Economist 4/12: “3rd industrial revolution”
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials Loughborough U FACTUM HSS
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
91
Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale --2012: 35,500 – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially kids
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
– Ability to do all of this away from control
At home
Uncontrolled sources
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
– Ability to do all of this away from control
At home
Uncontrolled sources
Welcome to the Revolution
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Welcome to the Revolution
Morris: 3D printing “tsunami” will overwhelm 3DP supply chain
Scanning market: $4B+ by 2018
Gartner: 4 years: top retailers will 3D print custom orders
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Welcome to the Revolution
Wohlers & Markets&Markets:
– 2012: $2.2 B 2020: $8B
– 2015: $4B 2021: 10.8B
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Welcome to the Revolution
Allied Market Research:
–2013: $46B
–2021: $175B
My Vision
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My Vision
Within Control
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
“We want our machines to make anything” in 5 years
Epson
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control
108
My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
– iFactory/3D Assembler
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
– iFactory/3D Assembler Every home
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
– iFactory/3D Assembler Every home
Any functionality
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
– iFactory/3D Assembler Every home
Any functionality
Easy as a breadmaker
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines Any functionality
– Radically different L&F
– Complement SM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – Any design, any time
– iFactory Every home
Any functionality
Easy as a breadmaker
– IP increasingly irrelevant
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When?
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”
Bill Gates
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Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
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Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
IP, it’s not dead yet!
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Thank you for your time! john.hornick@finnegan.com
www.finnegan.com
FOLLOW MY TWEETS: @ JHornick3D1Stop
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Disclaimer These materials are public information and have been prepared solely for educational and entertainment purposes to contribute to the understanding of U.S. intellectual property law. These materials reflect only the personal views of the authors and are not a source of legal advice. It is understood that each case is fact specific, and that the appropriate solution in any case will vary. Therefore, these materials may or may not be relevant to any particular situation. Thus, the authors and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP cannot be bound either philosophically or as representatives of their various present and future clients to the comments expressed in these materials. The presentation of these materials does not establish any form of attorney-client relationship with the authors or Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP. While every attempt was made to ensure that these materials are accurate, errors or omissions may be contained therein, for which any liability is disclaimed.