Our feature presentation:

What does the coming year hold for the independent Facebook game developer?

The story of Facebook so far

Three big episodes:1.2007-2008: The pioneering debut2.2008-2009: The difficult sequel3.2009-2010: Increased quality & maturityAnd what next?4.2010-2011: The lame cash-in?

The story of Facebook so far

2007-2008: the pioneering debut• Viral growth, poke apps, simple games• Developers working out how to make money• Generally low quality apps• Novelty value and user freshness

The story of Facebook so far

2008-2009: the difficult sequel• Facebook removing/limiting viral channels• The Mafia/Mob wars• Realisation that apps could make money– Lots of money, >$1m/month

• Mid 2009: world + dog decides to get into social games

The story of Facebook so far

2009-2010: more quality & maturity• More Facebook redesigns, less viral growth• Increased game quality• Big-name entries into the market• Big money: EA buys Playfish for $300m+• The rise and rise of Farm Town, FarmVille and

the attack of the clones (yes, I know)

The indie developer today

Up against it• Limited access to resources• Facebook favouring the big names• Reduced Platform virality• Unable to match the quality of new games

So what next for Facebook?

2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?• Big gaming companies dominate?• Impossible to compete on ad spend?• Game quality rises and production costs soar?• Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims)

conquer all?

So what next for Facebook?

2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?• Big gaming companies dominate?– EA, Ubisoft, Zynga, Playdom, CrowdStar

• Impossible to compete on ad spend?• Game quality rises and production costs soar?• Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims)

conquer all?

So what next for Facebook?

2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?• Big gaming companies dominate?• Impossible to compete on ad spend?– Zynga spending $1m+/week on Facebook

• Game quality rises and production costs soar?• Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims)

conquer all?

So what next for Facebook?

2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?• Big gaming companies dominate?• Impossible to compete on ad spend?• Game quality rises and production costs soar?– Competing with Zynga’s 800+ team

• Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims) conquer all?

So what next for Facebook?

2010-2011: the lame cash-in episode?• Big gaming companies dominate?• Impossible to compete on ad spend?• Game quality rises and production costs soar?• Existing game brands (Civilisation, the Sims)

conquer all?– Civilisation coming in the summer, what will EA

bring to Playfish (or vice-versa)?

Things aren’t looking good

How can our indie escape?

Fighting the big guns

Competing against traditional gaming companies:

• Big investments need big payoffs• No evidence that they can succeed:

Spore Islands by Electronic ArtsBased on the Spore “franchise”Currently around 2.5k DAU

2010: boom and bust

Not everyone can win2010-2011 will be the year of:• Increasing user-blindness– Reduced virality– Fatigue with virtual goods and offer monetisation

• Virtual-world saturation• Social games go from hero to zero

Opportunities for Indies

Choose your battles:• Does increasing quality mean increasing

complexity?• Do Facebook users even want complexity?

The death of the bedroom coder has been predicted for over 20 years now

5 tips that might help

My tips

#1 Go niche• Don’t try to compete with FarmVille – look for

an audience that the big guns won’t be interested in

• Create an edge that deters the cloners

My tips

#2 Retention, not virality• Viral channel effectiveness is reducing• Buying traffic is almost inevitable• Once you have a user, keep hold of them

My tips

#3 Concentrate on ARPU(Average Revenue Per User)

• 100,000k users at 50c per user, or 1m at 5c?• A loyal audience monetises better than a

mass migratory one

My tips

#4 Don’t overcomplicate• Release fast, early and often• Don’t try to compete with the virtual worlds• Maximise ARPD (Average Revenue per

Developer)• Concentrate on fun, not realism• …but still maintain depth of play

My tips

#5 Build a portfolio• Not every game will be a success• Prepare to move on quickly• Cross-promote• Make a virtue out of changing your mind

A holy grail of app development?

A holy grail of app development?

Not quite• A tough year ahead• There are still opportunities for indies• Look for the gaps in the market• Take advantage of your ability to change

Thanks

karl@core10.co.ukwww.karlbunyan.co.ukfbExchange.nettwitter.com/karlbunyan