Indicator of Economic Indicator of Economic Sentiment and Sentiment and

Confidence Indicator in Confidence Indicator in ServicesServices

Statistical Office Statistical Office of the Slovak Republicof the Slovak Republic

Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova

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Development

Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade

Services have been carried out since 2002

Business surveys are performed since 1983

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Current state

Indicator of Economic Sentiment calculated on a monthly base since

1997 calculated as weighted arithmetic

mean of 4 components – confidence indicators in industry, construction, retail trade and consumers

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IES and its componentsCurrent state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a, b, c, d = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in

Industry BCI = 20 % CI in Construction RCI = 20 % CI in Retail trade CCI = 20 % Consumer CI

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IES including ServicesExperimental calculationsIES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI +

e*CCI

a, b, c, d, e = weights

ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry

BCI = 5 % CI in Construction RCI = 5 % CI in Retail trade SCI = 30 % CI in Services CCI = 20 % Consumer CI

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Comparison of results

Economic Sentiment Indicator w ithout Services

80,0

85,0

90,0

95,0

100,0

105,0

110,0

115,0

120,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2000 = 100

Average 1997 - 2004

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Comparison of results

Economic Sentiment Indicator incl. Services

110,0

115,0

120,0

125,0

130,0

135,0

140,0

2002 2003 2004 2005

2000 = 100

Average 2002 - 2004

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Comparison of resultsEconomic Sentiment Indicator incl. Services

75,080,085,090,095,0

100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0125,0130,0135,0140,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2000 = 100

Average 1997 - 2001

Average 2002 - 2004

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Comparison of resultsEconomic Sentiment Indicator

80,0

90,0

100,0

110,0

120,0

130,0

140,0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

ESI in SR inc. SCI

(2000=100)

80,0

90,0

100,0

110,0

120,0

130,0

140,0

ESI in SR w . SCI

(2000=100)

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IES (without SCI) and GDPEconomic Sentiment Indicator (w ithout SCI) and GDP

(quarterly)

70,075,080,085,090,095,0

100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

ESIN

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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IES (incl. SCI) and GDP

Economic Sentiment Indicator (incl. SCI) and GDP (quarterly)

70,075,080,085,090,095,0

100,0105,0110,0115,0120,0125,0130,0135,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

ESIN

98,099,0100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0111,0

GDP

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Comparison of ICI and GDP

Confidence Indicator in Industry and GDP (quarterly)

-10,0-7,0-4,0-1,02,05,08,0

11,014,017,020,0

199719981999200020012002200320042005

CI in IND

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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Comparison of BCI and GDP

Confidence Indicator in Construction and GDP (quarterly)

-80,0-70,0-60,0-50,0-40,0-30,0-20,0-10,0

0,010,020,0

199719981999200020012002200320042005

CI in BUI

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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Comparison of RCI and GDP

Confidence Indicator in Retail Trade and GDP (quarterly)

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

199719981999200020012002200320042005

CI in RET

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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Comparison of CCI and GDP

Consumer´s Confidence Indicator and GDP (quarterly)

-50,0-45,0-40,0-35,0-30,0-25,0-20,0-15,0-10,0-5,00,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

CCI

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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Comparison of SCI and GDP

Confidence Indicator in Services and GDP (quarterly)

20,025,030,035,040,045,050,055,060,065,070,0

199719981999200020012002200320042005

CI in SER

100,0101,0102,0103,0104,0105,0106,0107,0108,0109,0110,0

GDP

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Conclusions currently, results of calculations by

previous methodology are officially released

services are not included into composite Indicator of Economic Sentiment

in this practice we will still continue in 2006 as well

simultaneously we will calculate experimentally index by new methodology under providing of following measures

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The next measures to analyze of sample and weighted system

in calculation of Confidence Indicator in Services

to lengthen time series of CI in Services by retrospective re-calculations (econometric models)

after these steps to realize retrospective re-calculations of time series of IES

to continue on calculations of IES by new methodology

to inform economic public area on changes in calculations

to release methodology of a new way in calculation together with first publication

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IES and Confidence IES and Confidence Indicators in SlovakiaIndicators in Slovakia

Thank you Thank you

for for

your attentionyour attention