Improving the resilience of society to catastrophic natural hazards through

Multi Sectoral Partnerships (MSPs)

Jeroen Aerts

Hurricane Sandy, October 2012

Hurricane Irene, August 2011

4

> U$ 50 Bn Damage

> 200 Deaths

Manhattan (1664)

6

Manhattan (~1850)

Manhattan (~1915)

Manhattan (~1930)

9

Manhattan (~2007)

FEMA Floodzones (1/100 and 1/500)

Risk from hazard

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

Public

€Vulnerability / exposure

Probability

Risk Governance

Private

People

Risk from hazard

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

Public

€Vulnerability / exposure

Probability

Risk Governance

Private

People

NYC : 6 billion Euro -> Sandy: 50 bn Euro

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

Public

Risk Governance

Private

People

Capacity /knowlegde

Perception

Insitutions /legislation

Risk from hazard€

Vulnerability / exposure

Probability

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

Public

Risk Governance

Private

People

Risk Assessment

Risk from hazard

How to organize institutions, such they lower risk?

Risk from hazard

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

PublicRisk from

hazard

Risk Governance

Private

People

DRR measures

Multi Sectoral Partnerships, MSPs

PublicRisk from hazard

Which MSPs are most effective in lowering risk?

Private

People

DRR measures

Core: 10 Case studies

UK: Greater London

PT: Chamusca

ES: Jucar RBD

IT: PO RBD

DE+: Wadden Sea

AT+: Austrian railwaysNL: Rotterdam Port

7 regional case studies

3 pan European case studies

Forest FiresChamusca, Postugal: Forest Fires

Forest FiresChamusca, Portugal: Forest Fires

Risk Public

People

Building code

Restriction urbanization

Forest FiresChamusca, Portugal: Forest Fires

Risk Public

People

Building code

Restriction urbanization

Insurers

Port Cities & Flood risk

Rotterdam: no Insurance

Port Cities & Flood risk

London: Insurance

Rotterdam: no Insurance

Port Cities & Flood risk

London: Flood Insurance

Public

People

InsurersPublic

Risk Cascades : Po River Basin, Italy

Low Flows Droughts Salt intrusion from the sea drinking water

Earth quake Dike breach Flood -> Damage

Public

People

Insurers

Pan European CasesHeath Waves & Health

Flood damage & EU Solidarity fund

Volcanic ash & air traffic

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Solidarity Fund paymentsFlood risk - upper 90%Flood risk - EADFlood risk - upper 10%EUSF limit

Euro

s

Stress test : EU Solidarity Fund

EU SFMember

stateRE-

Insurers?

Volcanic Eruption & Aviation

Volcanic Eruption & Aviation

Volcanic Eruption & Aviation

Public

People

Insurers

Eurocontrol

Meteo -services Airlines

Limit cancelled

flights

Outlook

Public

People

Private

Testing MSPs using extreme scenarios

What if scenario? Cascades/ Multi hazard Scenarios & Hazard models

Outlook: Recommendations

Input Hyogo framework

Role EU policies in effective MSPs

Special Focus on role Insurance in MSPs

Thanks for your attention!

Website: www.enhanceproject.eu

Coordinator: jeroen.aerts@vu.nl

Communication: cedric.hananel@arctik.eu